Not exact matches
They found that in regions where the amount of snowfall was low and any snow that
did settle was sublimating away, enough dust would have accumulated to
change the surface
albedo sufficiently so that the Earth absorbed sunlight and thawed (Journal of Geophysical Research — Atmospheres, DOI: 10.1029 / 2009jd012007, in press).
If this
change in global
albedo is what is causing global warming, how
did the process get started?
[Response: UVic doesn't model
changes in cloud
albedo, but I'm quite sure it models
changes in
albedo due to sea ice and land ice.
You've hit on one of the weaknesses of the paper, as the model they use admittedly doesn't model
changes in
albedo (at least, not as a model output).
Does the model accurately reproduce some basic phenomena that happens in the real world when you
change the GHG, or the aerosols, solar radiation, or ice
albedo?
On the possibility of a
changing cloud cover «forcing» global warming in recent times (assuming we can just ignore the CO2 physics and current literature on feedbacks, since I don't see a contradiction between an internal radiative forcing and positive feedbacks), one would have to explain a few things, like why the diurnal temperature gradient would decrease with a planet being warmed by decreased
albedo... why the stratosphere should cool... why winters should warm faster than summers... essentially the same questions that come with the cosmic ray hypothesis.
In our own modelling, we have improved the calculations to reduce the amount of numerical diffusion (which helped a lot), and increased resolution (which also helped), but
changes to the ocean model also have a big impact, as
do Arctic cloud processes and surface
albedo parameterisations, so it gets complicated fast.
However, simulations using the relatively straightforward «direct effect» of aerosols (the increase in
albedo of the planet due to the particle brightness)
do not match the inferred
changes.
It doesn't have to be CO2 — in this case it's seasonal insolation
changes which cause an expansion of ice cover which cause a
change in the planet's overall
albedo.
If insolation and
albedo don't
change, the radiating temperature won't, but clearly both the surface temperature and atmospheric temperature will rise.
Increasing CO2
does increase the greenhouse effect, but there are other factors which determine climate, including solar irradiance, volcanism,
albedo, orbital variations, continental drift, mountain building, variations in sea currents,
changes in greenhouse gases, even cometary impacts.
Snow doesn't «cool» Earth, decrease in insolation and
changes to
albedo does.
On the other hand, the Arctic sea ice
albedo reduction
does contribute significantly to polar amplification of globally averaged temperature
changes.
Charney was indulging in speculation, for computer models of the time were too crude to show what a regional
change of
albedo would actually
do to the winds.
Finally, at any given moment the ice tends to hang out where the sun can't reach... and ice increases in those areas don't
change the
albedo.
As a result, the
changes in ice area don't make that much of a
change in overall all
albedo.
What difference between energy absorption and radiation
do we need to induce in order to make the air temperature increase by 1 degree C, assuming no
change in
albedo?
By so
doing, we are ignoring other low frequency forcings (such as long wavelength
changes in TSI and
albedo) which would have to be included to make any sense of the data.
Why
did Trenberth
change the
albedo from 107Watts / m ^ 2 in 1997 to 101.9 Watts / m ^ 2 for the 2009 version?
This paper analyzes the 420,00 o year Antarctic Vostok ice core data comparing the CO2, CH4, sea level, and surface
albedo changes do derive his empirical 3 °C per 4 W / m2 climate sensitivity from the ice core data.
To
do this, I took cloud radiative - forcing anomalies (ΔCRF) and adjusted those to account for the impact of
changing temperature, water vapor, surface
albedo, and radiative forcing, ultimately yielding ΔRcloud.
Doesn't this mean that CO2 is
changing the
albedo a tiny bit?
Team Purple could check for UHI,
albedo change, pollution etc theories to see if those, combined with the greenhouse effect, can produce predictions which actually match reality, something Red's efforts conspicuously fail to
do.
Also interesting that they don't understand that water vapour feedback, no matter what it's magnitude, applies equally to anything that causes a
change in radiative forcing for the planet — more GH gases,
Albedo change, any GCR induced
changes in clouds.
As the slightest of
albedo changes can have quite a temperature impact, how
do all these agricultural
changes — either under unabated climate
change or in a stratospheric SRM world — in turn affect the atmosphere?
We don't know the forcing because we don't know what the
albedo changes were.
Pielke seniors thing is that land use
changes leadto
albedo changes which lead to more heat absorbed, so actually the warming isn't much to
do with CO2 and so there isn't much of a problem.
Poitou & Bréon
do not explain why the ice pack volume would be relevant for the
albedo; according to Haas (2005)[47] the
changes of the thickness of the sea ice are small since they are correctly measured by an airborne radio apparatus, only over the Arctic.
And then you have to accept that the climate models
do a very poor job of predicting CO2 - AGW because the equation introduced by Lacis and Hansen in 1974 to predict cloud
albedo change from pollution is useless even though Sagan derived it.
Jim, the bottom line for me is that for the earth to be in radiative thermal equiibrium with the sun, it has not been demonstrated that any
change in chemical composition of the earth or atmosphere is able to affect the equilibrium temperature, providing this
does not
change albedo.
The solar radiation
does not
change at all, the
albedo does not
change.
How much
did the
Albedo of the Earth
change due to that much land being replaced by ice cover — as a forcing in W / M ^ 2.
But all those glaciers, sea ice and desert / grasslands and a -6 W / m2 increase in low cloud cover (IPCC feedback estimates)
do not result in Zero
Albedo change.
And we don't have to go back all that far to get
changes in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and quite unknowable
albedo effects.
Seasonal
changes in SWR from clear skies have little to
do with the surface
albedo feedback that will follow global warming (aka ice -
albedo feedback).
At this point, it sounds like you're saying that no, mankind can not alter the
albedo of the Earth through aerosols or soot or
changes in land use, and no, greenhouse gases don't exist.
I
did suggest some time ago to Dr Bob Tisdale across at WUWT that perhaps a difference in the rate of energy loss during both the warming and cooling phases of ENSO and PDO cycles, because of a
change in the atmospheric
albedo, could provide a physical explanation for the correlation they were describing, but the hypothesis was not favoured.
So a long term trend in horizontal heat transport can't
change weather patterns or weather patterns don't affect
albedo or
albedo doesn't affect the energy budget?
Changes in a region's
albedo - for example, snow cover melting earlier in the season than it
did previously - Could result in climate
change.
Changes in a regions albedo - for example, snow cover melts earlier in the season than it did previously - climate changes could
Changes in a regions
albedo - for example, snow cover melts earlier in the season than it
did previously - climate
changes could
changes could follow.
Just because you can not measure it, or
do not have the time to consider all of the
changes in the sun and how it affects the planet's
albedo,
does not mean it is not there.
How
do clouds
change their annual average global
albedo spontaneously when their individual lifetime is minutes to hours?
If you have six feet of snow or three inches of snow the
albedo doesn't
change.
Internal variability doesn't imply an absence of radiative forcing but includes
albedo changes from clouds, dust, snow and ice, vegetation and volcanoes.
The black line, reconstructed from ISCCP satellite data, «is a purely statistical parameter that has little physical meaning as it
does not account for the non-linear relations between cloud and surface properties and planetary
albedo and
does not include aerosol related
albedo changes such as associated with Mt. Pinatubo, or human emissions of sulfates for instance» (Real Climate).
Jeffrey, you don't get it: the huge feedback to the tiny Milankovich
change in forcing is largely the result of ice / vegetation
albedo changes.
You won't
do it of course because I suspect you know just as well I that merely
changing 70 % of the planet's surface
albedo from the less than 1 % of the ocean to the 15 % of dirt and rocks will reflect enough additional shortwave energy away from the planet that the bloody thing will be covered in snow faster than you can say Al Gore's Momma Wears Combat Boots.
And I think you hit the nail on the head with: «5) Once we scientifically - oriented Skeptics accept the reality of the Atmospheric «greenhouse effect» we are, IMHO, better positioned to question the much larger issues which are: a) HOW MUCH
does CO2 contribute to that effect, b) HOW MUCH does human burning of fossil fuels and land use changes that reduce albedo affect warming, and, perhaps most important, c) Does the resultant enhanced CO2 level and higher mean temperature actually have a net benefit for humankind?&ra
does CO2 contribute to that effect, b) HOW MUCH
does human burning of fossil fuels and land use changes that reduce albedo affect warming, and, perhaps most important, c) Does the resultant enhanced CO2 level and higher mean temperature actually have a net benefit for humankind?&ra
does human burning of fossil fuels and land use
changes that reduce
albedo affect warming, and, perhaps most important, c)
Does the resultant enhanced CO2 level and higher mean temperature actually have a net benefit for humankind?&ra
Does the resultant enhanced CO2 level and higher mean temperature actually have a net benefit for humankind?»
So how can we possibly start talking about anthropogenic forcings and surface temperature
changes wrought by same when we don't even know to + -5 C what the average temperature of the earth should be due to our
albedo measurements being so imprecise and having no bloody idea how, when, and why the earth's average
albedo varies.
It should be easy enough for you to
do... You won't
do it of course because I suspect you know just as well I that merely
changing 70 % of the planet's surface
albedo from the less than 1 % of the ocean to the 15 % of dirt and rocks will reflect enough additional shortwave energy away from the planet that the bloody thing will be covered in snow faster than you can say Al Gore's Momma Wears Combat Boots.