How often
do black swan events impact animals?
Not exact matches
«We don't know what the «
black swan is,» he said, referring to an unexpected
event.
We don't know whether this qualifies as a
black swan event, but a drop of more than 4 % during a bull market is indeed very rare.
These seemingly unpredictable, rare incidents — dubbed
black swan events — may be unlikely to happen on any specific day, but they
do occur.
We're believers that this is the start of a long - term bull market, but that doesn't mean there won't be hiccups and
black swan events along the way.
Anti-fragility goes beyond these concepts; it means that something
does not merely withstand a shock, but actually benefits from an outlying
Black Swan event.
I don't really focus on these possible
black swan events.
He also reminds readers that banks and other financial institutions don't usually take
Black Swan Events into consideration in their risk models, and so they aren't prepared to handle them — which we saw in the financial crisis of 2007.
Re: David L. Hagen «I don't think this is a «
black swan»
event.
Wayne Lusvardi Not having experienced it
does NOT mean it is a «
Black Swan»
event — just that they
did not take the effort to
do a full failure tree analysis.
Wayne Lusvardi I don't think this is a «
black swan»
event.
That the problems at Oroville were foreseeable or fixable
does not obviate that they were a
Black Swan event.
But the even greater problem here is that if you're going to consider policy in terms of
Black Swans, i.e. low frequency
events, there will be no end to your mitigations, much like in the UK at the moment there is no end to the form filling you have to
do to satisfy the «health & safety» gurus.
It seems like the best thing to
do would be to measure the difference between the measurement of choice (daily high, presumably, since we're in the business of talking about
black -
swan high - temperature
events this time of year) and the trend line rather than a flat baseline.
This question is illuminated when one considers that there are an infinite number of potential
black swan events (by definition) that we potentially could «
do something» about.
While we seem to be able to learn from recent
black swan events, anticipating the next different
black swan doesn't get any easier.
I don't know what a
Black Swan event would be, a new ice age, an astroid strike, a shut down of an ocean current...??? None of those has anything to
do with the currant CAGW debate nor ar they anything that we can prepare for.
So, going back to so - called «
black swan» theory and the
events that characterise it, how
does it help us to understand occurrences such as the two I described above?