So, what can investors
do in this bear market?
Funny how they always
do that in bear markets for credit.
The early numbers showed that if
you did it in a bear market, you would obviously beat the S&P 500, because you had half in fixed income.
The interest he would pay on this loan is a payment to himself that likely would result in a higher return than what any of the available funds would
do in a bear market.
It's easy to be a buy and hold person in a Bull market, but not everyone can
do it in a Bear market.
Not exact matches
Long
bear markets, defined as a drop of 20 percent or more
in stock prices over the course of months,
do tend to correlate with recessions.
In fact, mutual fund company Hussman Funds, which analyzed events that precipitated the financial crisis, which began in 2007, in this blog post, notes that bear markets that induce recessions are usually twice as long as those that don't produce recession
In fact, mutual fund company Hussman Funds, which analyzed events that precipitated the financial crisis, which began
in 2007, in this blog post, notes that bear markets that induce recessions are usually twice as long as those that don't produce recession
in 2007,
in this blog post, notes that bear markets that induce recessions are usually twice as long as those that don't produce recession
in this blog post, notes that
bear markets that induce recessions are usually twice as long as those that don't produce recessions.
And after you are
done, read «
Bearing down,» a just -
in - case Canadian Business cover story that lays out what the
market's baddest bad news
bears advise you to
do to prepare yourself for when the sky starts falling.
Those funds, which rely on sometimes sophisticated strategies to protect clients» portfolios, lost significantly less than stocks and mutual funds
did in the last two U.S.
bear markets.
«While we could go further lower
in terms of this correction, I don't think we're going to be falling into a new
bear market,» he told CNBC.
Still, despite a flight to shiny metals, a
bear market in stocks
does not make a bull
market in gold, he said.
The Fed has noted the decline
in the «
market based» measures of inflation — i.e. breakevens — and said these too look transitory, though these
do bear close watching.
As Shelby Cullom Davis is famous for saying, however: «You make most of your money
in a
bear market, you just don't know it.»
Despite a flight to shiny metals, a
bear market in stocks
does not make a bull
market in gold, said a widely - followed
market timer.
While I am certainly no Chinese real estate expert, I
do have at least a tiny bit of insight into the
market because 1) my girlfriend was
born and raised
in China, attended Peking University, and is now
in America on a research fellowship, and 2) her parents own five apartments
in China.
Hopefully,
doing this will help me manage my assets better
in a
bear market.
If you are new to stock trading, you must know that bull
markets do not trend
in a straight line (the same is true of
bear markets).
Peter Boockvar,
market strategist at The Lindsey Group, said he
does believe the bull
market peaked
in May, and the
market is heading into a
bear market.
All of this could easily change when U.S.
markets open, when investors ponder the new and more volatile environment they live
in, when traders decide they
do not want to
bear risk over the weekend, or when a weekend of pondering leads to a wave of liquidations on Monday morning.
This way, if a
bear market occurs, you have a year of cash becoming available at the maturity date so that you
do not have to sell stocks, and
in a bull
market you can buy new bonds as the ones you own mature, and you thereby benefit from the higher interest rates that high quality bonds give versus cash or CDs.
Sure, you can invest
in stocks, but you may not have the stomach for that when you're north of 65 and don't have time to make up for the large losses that a
market crash or a prolonged
bear market can bring.
[01:10] Introduction [02:45] James welcomes Tony to the podcast [03:35] Tony's leap year birthday [04:15] Unshakeable delivers the specific facts you need to know [04:45] What James learned from Unshakeable [05:25] Most people panic when the stock
market drops [05:45] Getting rid of your fear of investing [06:15] Last January was the worst opening, but it was a correction [06:45] You are losing money when you sell on corrections [06:55]
Bear markets come every 5 years on average [07:10] The greatest opportunity for a millennial [07:40] Waiting for corrections to invest [08:05] Warren Buffet's advice for investors [08:55] If you miss the top 10 trading days a year... [09:25] Three different investor scenarios over a 20 year period [10:40] The best trading days come after the worst [11:45] Investing
in the current world [12:05] What Clinton and Bush think of the current situation [12:45] The office is far bigger than the occupant [13:35] Information helps reduce fear [14:25] James's story of the billionaire upset over another's wealth [14:45] What money really is [15:05] The story of Adolphe Merkle [16:05] The story of Chuck Feeney [16:55] The importance of the right mindset [17:15] What fuels Tony [19:15] Find something you care about more than yourself [20:25] Make your mission to surround yourself with the right people [21:25] Suffering made Tony hungry for more [23:25] By feeding his mind, Tony found strength [24:15] Great ideas don't interrupt you, you have to pursue them [25:05] Never - ending hunger is what matters [25:25] Richard Branson is the epitome of hunger and drive [25:40] Hunger is the common denominator [26:30] What you can
do starting right now [26:55] Success leaves clues [28:10] What it means to take massive action [28:30] Taking action commits you to following through [29:40] If you do nothing you'll learn nothing [30:20] There must be an emotional purpose behind what you're doing [30:40] How does Tony ignite creativity in his own life [32:00] «How is not as important as «why» [32:40] What and why unleash the psyche [33:25] Breaking the habit of focusing on «how» [35:50] Deep Practice [35:10] Your desired outcome will determine your action [36:00] The difference between «what» and «why» [37:00] Learning how to chunk and group [37:40] Don't mistake movement for achievement [38:30] Tony doesn't negotiate with his mind [39:30] Change your thoughts and change your biochemistry [40:00] The bad habit of being stressed [40:40] Beautiful and suffering states [41:50] The most important decision is to live in a beautiful state no matter what [42:40] Consciously decide to take yourself out of suffering [43:40] Focus on appreciation, joy and love [44:30] Step out of suffering and find the solution [45:00] Dealing with mercury poisoning [45:40] Tony's process for stepping out of suffering [46:10] Stop identifying with thoughts — they aren't yours [47:40] Trade your expectations for appreciation [50:00] The key to life — gratitude [51:40] What is freedom for yo
do starting right now [26:55] Success leaves clues [28:10] What it means to take massive action [28:30] Taking action commits you to following through [29:40] If you
do nothing you'll learn nothing [30:20] There must be an emotional purpose behind what you're doing [30:40] How does Tony ignite creativity in his own life [32:00] «How is not as important as «why» [32:40] What and why unleash the psyche [33:25] Breaking the habit of focusing on «how» [35:50] Deep Practice [35:10] Your desired outcome will determine your action [36:00] The difference between «what» and «why» [37:00] Learning how to chunk and group [37:40] Don't mistake movement for achievement [38:30] Tony doesn't negotiate with his mind [39:30] Change your thoughts and change your biochemistry [40:00] The bad habit of being stressed [40:40] Beautiful and suffering states [41:50] The most important decision is to live in a beautiful state no matter what [42:40] Consciously decide to take yourself out of suffering [43:40] Focus on appreciation, joy and love [44:30] Step out of suffering and find the solution [45:00] Dealing with mercury poisoning [45:40] Tony's process for stepping out of suffering [46:10] Stop identifying with thoughts — they aren't yours [47:40] Trade your expectations for appreciation [50:00] The key to life — gratitude [51:40] What is freedom for yo
do nothing you'll learn nothing [30:20] There must be an emotional purpose behind what you're
doing [30:40] How
does Tony ignite creativity
in his own life [32:00] «How is not as important as «why» [32:40] What and why unleash the psyche [33:25] Breaking the habit of focusing on «how» [35:50] Deep Practice [35:10] Your desired outcome will determine your action [36:00] The difference between «what» and «why» [37:00] Learning how to chunk and group [37:40] Don't mistake movement for achievement [38:30] Tony doesn't negotiate with his mind [39:30] Change your thoughts and change your biochemistry [40:00] The bad habit of being stressed [40:40] Beautiful and suffering states [41:50] The most important decision is to live
in a beautiful state no matter what [42:40] Consciously decide to take yourself out of suffering [43:40] Focus on appreciation, joy and love [44:30] Step out of suffering and find the solution [45:00] Dealing with mercury poisoning [45:40] Tony's process for stepping out of suffering [46:10] Stop identifying with thoughts — they aren't yours [47:40] Trade your expectations for appreciation [50:00] The key to life — gratitude [51:40] What is freedom for you?
Here's an interesting question for investment professionals:
Do you have a retiree with an equity heavy portfolio who has to make a withdrawal
in a
bear market during the early years of the client's retirement?
«We think one of the things that make people panic
in a
bear market is that they simply don't know whether they'll have enough cash to handle near - term goals,» says Mark Riepe, Senior Vice President at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.
Jim Rogers stated
in an interview with Bloomberg that «the next
bear market will be worst
in my lifetime,» adding that he didn't know when that
bear market would occur.
Another thing about this particular statistic, it doesn't distinguish stocks that are truly
in a «
bear market» vs those that have tripled and pulled back 20 %.
Does the fact that the average stock is already
in a
bear market mean the indices have to catch up and move lower?
While I certainly don't think the
market overall is cheap, and while I certainly believe it's very possible that a
bear market could occur at any time, we are definitely not
in a bubble.
It doesn't help when 4 years of a miserable
bear market remains fresh
in our memories.
It's easy to put it
in the back of your mind when it seems like all stocks
do is rise but it's a question of when, not if, the next
bear market will hit.
Those who experienced big
bear markets early
in retirement, appear to be
doing okay with 4.5 % withdrawal rate.
«A
bear market early
in retirement is definitely concerning, but doesn't have to be dire.»
I really don't believe
in any kind of an organized «Plunge protection team», and certainly don't think that such an effort would be effective
in halting a
bear market even if it existed.
How much
did really making your bones
in the 1970s
in the midst of that horrific
bear market plus inflation plus 12 percent risk - free treasury yields, how much
did that impact the psychology of what you guys were
doing?
They may not earn a high return going forward and may even lose some
in the next
bear market, but I believe the psychology of holding bonds will stop some people from
doing the wrong thing at the wrong time.
Darin Kingston of d.light, whose profitable solar - powered LED lanterns simultaneously address poverty, education, air pollution / toxic fumes / health risks, energy savings, carbon footprint, and more Janine Benyus, biomimicry pioneer who finds models
in the natural world for everything from extracting water from fog (as a desert beetle
does) to construction materials (spider silk) to designing flood - resistant buildings by studying anthills
in India's monsoon climate, and shows what's possible when you invite the planet to join your design thinking team Dean Cycon, whose coffee company has not only exclusively sold organic fairly traded gourmet coffee and cocoa beans since its founding
in 1993, but has funded dozens of village - led community development projects
in the lands where he sources his beans John Kremer, whose concept of exponential growth through «biological
marketing,» just as a single kernel of corn grows into a plant
bearing thousands of new kernels, could completely change your business strategy Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute, who built a near - net - zero - energy luxury home back
in 1983, and has developed a scientific, economically viable plan to get the entire economy off oil, coal, and nuclear and onto renewables — while keeping and even improving our high standard of living
Third and finally, the traditional story misses the real function of private banks, which is to solve an information problem
in the purest Hayekian senses. That is, banks are or should be specialists in risk assessment and risk taking. They should know their client, understand the local market and have their pulse on the broad economy. Arguably, if properly structured, they can and should do this better than other entities such as governments. In other words, the proper role of banks should be underwriting — lend money, hold the debt, and bear the risk. Which is a long - winded way of getting to the main point of this pos
in the purest Hayekian senses. That is, banks are or should be specialists
in risk assessment and risk taking. They should know their client, understand the local market and have their pulse on the broad economy. Arguably, if properly structured, they can and should do this better than other entities such as governments. In other words, the proper role of banks should be underwriting — lend money, hold the debt, and bear the risk. Which is a long - winded way of getting to the main point of this pos
in risk assessment and risk taking. They should know their client, understand the local
market and have their pulse on the broad economy. Arguably, if properly structured, they can and should
do this better than other entities such as governments.Â
In other words, the proper role of banks should be underwriting — lend money, hold the debt, and bear the risk. Which is a long - winded way of getting to the main point of this pos
In other words, the proper role of banks should be underwriting — lend money, hold the debt, and
bear the risk. Which is a long - winded way of getting to the main point of this post.
RITHOLTZ: Let's talk a little bit about you guys hanging your shingle
in 1980, really the final innings of a 16 - year
bear market; how
did you guys have the nerve to launch into that environment and how
did you get clients?
You guys began
in the middle of a
bear market in the 1970s,
in your work
in markets, how
did that impact your psychology the rest of your career?
Normally, the strong positive shifts
in breadth momentum that signal sustainable
bear market rallies don't emerge easily.
Notice that the bearish crossovers
in 2001 and 2008 that were followed by
bear markets did not look back once the crossovers occurred.
These risks and uncertainties include food safety and food -
borne illness concerns; litigation; unfavorable publicity; federal, state and local regulation of our business including health care reform, labor and insurance costs; technology failures; failure to execute a business continuity plan following a disaster; health concerns including virus outbreaks; the intensely competitive nature of the restaurant industry; factors impacting our ability to drive sales growth; the impact of indebtedness we incurred
in the RARE acquisition; our plans to expand our newer brands like Bahama Breeze and Seasons 52; our ability to successfully integrate Eddie V's restaurant operations; a lack of suitable new restaurant locations; higher - than - anticipated costs to open, close or remodel restaurants; increased advertising and
marketing costs; a failure to develop and recruit effective leaders; the price and availability of key food products and utilities; shortages or interruptions
in the delivery of food and other products; volatility
in the
market value of derivatives; general macroeconomic factors, including unemployment and interest rates; disruptions
in the financial
markets; risk of
doing business with franchisees and vendors
in foreign
markets; failure to protect our service marks or other intellectual property; a possible impairment
in the carrying value of our goodwill or other intangible assets; a failure of our internal controls over financial reporting or changes
in accounting standards; and other factors and uncertainties discussed from time to time
in reports filed by Darden with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
And
in a
bear market, those who have expensive toys they don't need will feel the weight of 1000 boulders on their shoulders because their jobs may be at risk.
Test your own recollection of the
bear market:
Do you remember correctly that between October 2007 and March 2009, the U.S. stock
market dropped
in price by 57 %?
Everything's cheap
in a
bear market, but just because a coin's cheap doesn't mean it has value.
Though our investment horizon of interest is a complete
market cycle, we don't generally think
in terms of bull and
bear markets, because they can only be determined
in hindsight.
Travis Hoium (Colgate - Palmolive): When the stock
market is
in bull or
bear territory,
do you change your toothbrushing or dishwashing habits at all?
While I don't expect a full on
bear market, I
do think we're seeing the start of a major correction
in several areas that have reached dangerously high levels of valuation.
(All that said, some active funds
do better than index funds
in bear markets — but this is typically because they hold a slug of cash to meet client redemptions, and this cash doesn't fall when the
market does.
In summary, evidence suggests that individual investors who trade options in aggregate underperform their counterparts who do not because: (1) they are especially prone to overreact to past market returns; and, (2) they bear high trading cost
In summary, evidence suggests that individual investors who trade options
in aggregate underperform their counterparts who do not because: (1) they are especially prone to overreact to past market returns; and, (2) they bear high trading cost
in aggregate underperform their counterparts who
do not because: (1) they are especially prone to overreact to past
market returns; and, (2) they
bear high trading costs.