OK, if the models time scale is off by a factor of 10, how much SLR
do those models predict in the next 500 years?
The competent questions to ask expert or layman alike come in two flavors: what
do the models predict, and how have the models been validated they been validated.
Do the models predict the rate of ocean warming we are seeing?
(For instance,
do the models predict cooling after big volcanic eruptions?
If so, when
do the models predict that this might happen?
How well
did those models predict the recent expansion of Bering Sea Ice that is currently 160 % + above average.
What
does your model predict?
We can not ask «what
does your model predict for tropospheric temps?
Not exact matches
Some of Cross's clients use sophisticated simulation
modeling to
predict sales at different price levels, but his technique doesn't have to be rocket science.
And I would say that was because — this is just one example — the field of economics, for many years,
did not incorporate the fact that humans don't make decisions generally on a one - to - one level the way that their
models would
predict.
Conclusion The behavioralists have yet to come up with a coherent
model that actually
predicts the future rather than merely explains, with the benefit of hindsight, what the market
did in the past.
The project is detailed in the contract as a seven step process — with Kogan's company, GSR, generating an initial seed sample (though it
does not specify how large this is here) using «online panels»; analyzing this seed training data using its own «psychometric inventories» to try to determine personality categories; the next step is Kogan's personality quiz app being deployed on Facebook to gather the full dataset from respondents and also to scrape a subset of data from their Facebook friends (here it notes: «upon consent of the respondent, the GS Technology scrapes and retains the respondent's Facebook profile and a quantity of data on that respondent's Facebook friends»); step 4 involves the psychometric data from the seed sample, plus the Facebook profile data and friend data all being run through proprietary
modeling algorithms — which the contract specifies are based on using Facebook likes to
predict personality scores, with the stated aim of
predicting the «psychological, dispositional and / or attitudinal facets of each Facebook record»; this then generates a series of scores per Facebook profile; step 6 is to match these psychometrically scored profiles with voter record data held by SCL — with the goal of matching (and thus scoring) at least 2M voter records for targeting voters across the 11 states; the final step is for matched records to be returned to SCL, which would then be in a position to craft messages to voters based on their
modeled psychometric scores.
«The
models that had been developed in those days to
predict homeowner behavior, not surprisingly,
did not have this type of loan factored into their forward - looking projections for 2004 and 2005.
«I don't think any
model would have
predicted the degree of persistence of Japan's problems.
Our most sophisticated
models can't
predict movements in 60 seconds (consistently, didn't stop us from trying as a joke activity) and it is sad that retail traders who don't even have a fraction of the tools or computing power think they can outperform, except of course the lucky ones (elementary 1st year university statistics
predicts that, so they are lucky not talented).
These
models allowed us to
predict the way individuals would vote - even if we didn't know about their political beliefs.
Under their
model of evolution, it's not the case that «Evolutionary theory doesn't
predict gaps.»
Scientists like Hawking tell us: God has no place in any scientific equations, plays no role in any scientific explanations, can not be used to
predict any events,
does not describe anything or force that has yet been detected, and there are no
models of the universe in which a god's presence is either required, productive, or useful.
As a matter of fact, E. R. John and his colleagues have been carrying out experiments of this type to test a
model of consciousness that links consciousness to the activity of a particular type of neuron.15 It appears that John's
model predicts different results than the present
model does, and one can think of several feasible experimental designs that would test between the two
models.
God has no place in any scientific equations, plays no role in any scientific explanations, can not be used to
predict any events,
does not describe anything or force that has yet been detected, and there are no
models of the universe in which a god's presence is either required, productive, or useful.
Your god has no place in any scientific equations, plays no role in any scientific explanations, can not be used to
predict any events,
does not describe anything or force that has yet been detected, and there are no
models of the universe in which a god's presence is either required, productive, or useful.
Laws don't demand, they
model and
predict.
What voters actually
do matters more than what you think they MIGHT
do: data derived directly from voters» choices quickly supersedes
models that try to
predict their behavior.
First, its
models did not live up to aspirations, failing to
predict the crisis.
Although there are problems with
predicting the Liberal Democrat vote the
model suggests that they will be substantially down on their 2010 vote but will perhaps not face the routing they
did at the European Parliament elections.
The new report, released today (Sept. 7) by the National Research Council, states that NASA's
models for
predicting its astronaut staffing needs in the near future
do not fully account for unexpected personnel changes like retirements and medical leave.
And despite the rings» abundance, scientists still don't understand exactly how this inner circle forms or how land could weaken enough to behave like a liquid in the immediate aftermath, as
models predict.
When applied to the road networks in actual cities, Transims
did better than traditional
models at
predicting traffic jams and local pollution levels — one reason why Transims - inspired agent - based
models are now a standard tool in transportation planning.
There is a
model that includes this and
does predict the anisotropy which Massari and colleagues observed, as long as most of the stars they measure belong to the most compact population.
Now that Medvigy knows what information is needed to
predict what the future holds for leaf coloration, he plans to again collaborate with his colleagues at GFDL to
do more sophisticated
modeling based on the study results, he said.
«Computational
models like this one might one day be able to
predict the clinical course of a disease or injury, as well as make it possible to
do less expensive testing of experimental drugs and interventions to see whether they are worth pursuing with human trials,» he said.
Their finding that the lunar rocks are enriched in the heavier potassium isotope
does not favor the silicate atmosphere
model, which
predicts lunar rocks will contain less of the heavier isotope than terrestrial rocks, the opposite of what the scientists found.
E.g., Agent X may not like Agent A, but the original CIF
model didn't
predict what Agent X would
do about it.
These new results, however, contradict current
models of how galaxies evolved in the early Universe, which
do not
predict any monster galaxies at these early times.
The researchers found that the rainfall
predicted for East Africa on a decadal scale by
models using the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole
did not account for as much of the rainfall fluctuations as expected for the past 34 years.
«The result is not a surprise, but if you look at the global climate
models that have been used to analyze what the planet looked like 20,000 years ago — the same
models used to
predict global warming in the future — they are
doing, on average, a very good job reproducing how cold it was in Antarctica,» said first author Kurt Cuffey, a glaciologist at the University of California, Berkeley, and professor of geography and of earth and planetary sciences.
«The problem is that most of the plant - tolerance
models we currently use to
predict these outcomes are based on laboratory studies or plant physiological studies, so they often don't factor in the compounding effects of simultaneous stressors like drought and pressure from natural enemies.
While rainfall intensity was more realistically
predicted by the high - resolution climate
models, particularly for summer convective storms, these storms
do not make a significant difference to summer phosphorus losses.
«The effective immune response didn't happen in every tumor
model we tested, so we still need to figure out exactly what triggered the tumor shrinkage and how to
predict which tumors will shrink in response to virotherapy,» said Leddon, who is also working toward her medical and doctoral degrees at the University of Cincinnati.
Its behaviour looks like what happens in the real world, but Erickson stresses that «the uncertainties remain large», and that much more work needs to be
done before such
models can be used to
predict future climate trends.
The new monitoring data
does not show which of two competing
models best
predicts the future concentration of Fukushima radiation along the U.S. West Coast, Smith said.
Physicists look for results inconsistent with those
predicted by the Standard
Model to expand knowledge of the physical world — but that didn't happen here.
Computer
models that
predict and monitor the fate of oil proved inadequate; so
did sensing equipment designed for aerial surveillance.
Because the Goddard
model is bad at
predicting precipitation, she
did separate runs for normal and dry conditions.
Mathematicians had already developed bookie - beating
models that attempt to
predict the outcome of sports matches, but they are difficult to devise and don't always perform consistently.
«Our
model can help
predict if forests are at risk of desertification or other climate change - related processes and identify what can be
done to conserve these systems,» he said.
In the future, Orton says, improved storm - surge
models could
predict where flood zones should be drawn given future sea level rise, which is now
done nationally by the Federal Emergency Management Agency with data from past storms.
«Most climate
models that incorporate vegetation are built on short - term observations, for example of photosynthesis, but they are used to
predict long - term events,» said Bond - Lamberty, who works at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a collaboration between PNNL and the University of Maryland in College Park, Md. «We need to understand forests in the long term, but forests change slowly and researchers don't live that long.»
And again,
does Freeman Dyson, assuming he is willing to get on an airplane even though
models have been used to test the performance of the airplane, assuming he
does and he knows he's going somewhere where they've
predicted, where weather
models have
predicted rainfall for the next seven days,
does he not pack his umbrella because he doesn't believe the
models?
«Its existence was
predicted by the standard
model of particle physics and the fact that there's — we got a glimpse of it, it looks like it may very well be there — is a real victory for that
model of science where you test, you put forward conceptual
models of the way the world or the universe works and test those
models against the observations and see the extent to which they can
predict new observations and when they
do, it gives you increased confidence in the
models.