I do numerical modelling of physical phenomena for a living, so I know something about model validation procedures.
«It's a challenge to people who
do numerical models of earthquakes, anybody who does theory of dynamic rupture,» Marone says.
C.R. and V.P. worked on the development of the GRISLI model and
did the numerical modelling.
Not exact matches
Of course, it doesn't say BlackBerry Porsche Design P» 9983 on the documentation, it just simply says BlackBerry P» 9983 and carries the
model number RHB121LW but we all know that follows the
numerical designation for the Porsche Design devices.
In our own
modelling, we have improved the calculations to reduce the amount of
numerical diffusion (which helped a lot), and increased resolution (which also helped), but changes to the ocean
model also have a big impact, as
do Arctic cloud processes and surface albedo parameterisations, so it gets complicated fast.
The results are very conservative because they exclude the possibility of rapid changes of the ice sheets as the
numerical models do not yet know how to deal with those.
It is up to the climate «scientists» to prove that their climate
model is accurate and there is no mathematical or
numerical analytic theory that can be used to
do so.
Lovely little anecdotes, but if an ATC system crashes on a busy day, people's lives are at risk whereas if a climate
model crashes (due to a system or process error rather than a
numerical error), it can be re-run — as long as the error doesn't cause different results to occur, ie.
It's not based on a
numerical model of how oil would likely move and disperse if a well off Delaware really
did have a major problem; that's a function of wind, tide, current, the properties of the oil, the rate and quantity of spillage, and of course the effectiveness of our efforts to contain the oil in such an incident.
My personal opinion is that I
do not believe that
numerical models (GCM) can give meaningful support or development to their work but I
do not know if they believe it themselves.
Therefore regardless whether the
numerical 3D
models are relevant for the real spatio - temporal chaos or not (I think not), they have nothing to
do with Lorenzian temporal chaos.
But isn't this particular point precisely the problem of all the
numerical models who don't and can't solve systems of non linear PDE?
Type 2 dynamic downscaling refers to regional weather (or climate) simulations in which the regional
model's initial atmospheric conditions are forgotten (i.e., the predictions
do not depend on the specific initial conditions), but results still depend on the lateral boundary conditions from a global
numerical weather prediction where initial observed atmospheric conditions are not yet forgotten, or are from a global reanalysis.
With my background I ought to be focusing on poor
modelling of fluid dynamics and convection, chaotic dynamics and the fudges involved in
numerical simulations — like Chris Essex
does.
It can not be
modeled because the
numerical functions
do not exist.
If you don't have a strong handle on
numerical error, parameter estimation for the many subgrid
models you have is really little better than guessing.
The lazies quoting this don't realize that all Box was criticizing was
numerical accuracy, and everyone else is applying it to some strawman of the futility of
modeling.
That requires considerable sensitivity research with state - of - the art
numerical weather prediction (and climate)
models... This hand - waving theory may not hold up when a rigorous scientific hypothesis is tested, yet McKibben
does not provide a citation or reference aside from Masters» quotations, which are not peer - reviewed in the slightest.»
«We have groups
doing numerical weather prediction, hurricanes, climate, oceans, but in the international arena, countries have whole institutions
doing the functions of these individual groups,» said Dr. Ronald J. Stouffer, who designs and runs climate
models at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., a top Commerce Department center for weather and climate work.
When we talk about regional
modeling or regional
numerical weather prediction we are really
doing the same thing except that we are focusing on more and more detail for the region where you are located.
Your claim proven as a theorem now means basically (with some radiative cooling at the top for the return flow) that it
does not need confirmation by
numerical modelling, but rather, application, to see how it plays out in real atmospheric problems.
And as this
model is inherent analog it will
do a better job than an digital process as there is no issue with
numerical precision.
BTW, I never said I wasn't interested in other aspects of the science, merely that the problem you stated probably required addressing the
numerical aspects of climate
models and that there was no hope of
doing that without a team.
One of the issues that puzzle me with the current climate
models is that they
do not follow the protocols of
numerical models used in other earth sciences such as hydrogeology for example.
The people who utter the D word
do not care about what the objects of their ires actually think: because the issue is not one's opinion on the GHG properties of CO2, and not even what the temperature record says, or what the equations may indicate, or how good the
numerical solutions we call
Models are.
Meaning, that if he were on the Yucatán Peninsula, say 65Mya, a few hours before you know what hit right aboot there, he would claim that 65Myr in to the future (e. g. December 21, 2012AD), the Solar System would be in total chaos, simply bescuse that's when his theory /
numerical model goes to the crapper (he's
doing these calculations at 80 - bit extended precision BTW, but I really don't know why he's not using quad (128 - bit) precision).