According to Klotzbach et al. (2010), which the Watts paper references, there should be an amplification factor of ~ 1.1 between surface and lower troposphere temperatures over land (greater atmospheric warming having to
do with water vapor amplification).
«This has to
do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convection in the atmosphere.
Not exact matches
Combined
with a decrease in atmospheric
water vapor and a weaker sun due to the most recent solar cycle, the aerosol finding may explain why climate change has not been accelerating as fast as it
did in the 1990s.
The researchers
do know that the presence of certain aerosols plays a large role in the formation of ice that leads to precipitation, but they also need to tease out the importance of that
with other factors, like the amount of available
water vapor and vertical storm winds.
The team suspects it has to
do with photosynthesis, which leads to more
water vapor in the air.
What
does happen is that the sound field interacts
with any small gas bubble that may exist in the
water and causes the bubble to grow dramatically during the passage of the negative pressure portion of the sound field — the
water essentially «boils» — because the pressure is below the
vapor pressure.
The cause of the present flood has to
do with the mass of
water vapor in the air, which is partly the result of higher air temperature.
He notes that DMF could rapidly replace ethanol, because it not only provides more energy but also has a higher boiling point (allowing DMF to blend more easily
with gasoline) and it
does not react
with water (ethanol absorbs atmospheric
water vapor, which degrades its potency).
Using data of tau Boo b collected
with the Near Infrared Echelle Spectrograph (NIRSPEC) instrument at the W. M. Keck Observatory in Hawai'i, the researchers were able to compare the molecular signature of
water to the light spectrum emitted by the planet, confirming that the atmosphere
did indeed include
water vapor.
However, heat leakage would be inevitable, and if you allow that, you find that you don't get a runaway even if you force the tropics to be saturated
with water vapor.
It is entirely possible that
water vapor feedback has very little to
do with non — condensable GHGs.
All I am highlighting is the possibility that
water vapor feedback may have very little to
do with non — condensable GHGs.
Shifting between states is a vital part of solving the various puzzles, and
with the exception of
vapor to
water (think precipitation) you can only
do so at specific locations, so plan carefully.
First, re the California state legislature legislating that
water vapor is not a greenhouse gas: Well, politicians will be often be silly but in this case I don't have a big problem
with what they
did (at least from what you say).
@Paul, # 155
Do you have a reference for this statement «combined
with 4 % more
water vapor in the atmosphere (compared to 3 decades ago) is leading to much more extremes in weather.
And yes, in order to
do a complete «mass balance», where the total mass «in» equals the total mass «out», you'd need to include all ingredients going into the process (including air) and all ingredients coming out (including
water vapor, which is also a key product of the process along
with the CO2).
I disagree
with aspects of this statement because it
does not consider the effects of inversions and the complex processes involving
water vapor.
However, heat leakage would be inevitable, and if you allow that, you find that you don't get a runaway even if you force the tropics to be saturated
with water vapor.
Peter (11:57:58) said: The fatal flaw here is the assumption that it takes the warming from CO2, or any other greenhouse gas
with the exception of
water vapor to trigger the warming but, once this is
done, the temperature increase from
water vapor keeps the» spiral» going.
The fatal flaw here is the assumption that it takes the warming from CO2, or any other greenhouse gas
with the exception of
water vapor to trigger the warming but, once this is
done, the temperature increase from
water vapor keeps the «spiral» going.
For instance, perfect initialization of the state of the Atlantic ocean, a correct simulation of the next 10 years of the solar cycle, a proper inclusion of stratospheric
water vapor, etc may be important for whether the next 5 years are warmer than the previous 5, but it has nothing to
do with climate sensitivity,
water vapor feedback, or other issues.
The
water vapor cooled the Earth, the snow cooled the atmosphere
with resulting increase in surface albedo which
does reflect radiative heat, meaning the Earth gets less warm, not colder because of it.
Doesn't
waters vapor pressure increase
with temperature?
This is how the climate models seem to represent it — they multiply the effect of CO2, and they
do this
with a degree of certainty regarding CO2 NOT matched by a similar degree of certainty regarding
water vapor (the most abundant greenhouse gas of all).
Even if the climate community suddenly embraced the notion that
water vapor does not increase
with warming, the CMIP5 models runs are complete.
Atmospheric
water vapor definitely has a lot to
do with it,
with or without CO2 theories attached.
This remains to be seen, of course, but it's important to point out that the trospospheric amplification prediction
does not originate in the models but in the basic physics of radiative transfer in combination
with the Clausius - Clapeyron relationship describing the change in atmospheric
water vapor as a function of temperature.
Dew doesn't really fall, though — rather, dew is
water condensing out from the
water vapor mixed in
with cooling air.
A third issue I have
with the ICCP is the fact they
do not list
water vapor as being a greenhouse gas on their list of such gases (see their web site).
Note 1 — The total amount of
water vapor, TPW (total precipitable
water), is obviously something we want to know, but we don't have enough information if we don't know the distribution of this
water vapor with height.
If they had forced the model
with a
water vapor change, it would have
done the same thing.»
Then they go on to explain the effects of
water vapor and clouds but
with the most incredibly shallow and frankly bizarre propaganda style, leaving out the details on what else the
water cycle
does.
You can then add in
water vapor and so on
with my complete blessing, as long as you
do not assert that gravity can
do any net, continuous work even in the dynamic case in an atmosphere
with a more or less static density profile.
I like it, and it really doesn't conflict
with Broecker's earlier idea that atmospheric
water vapor levels changed (presumably secondary to an atmospheric cellular circulation change).
Just to let you know how stupid the global warming activists are, I've been to the south pole 3 times and even there, where the
water vapor is under 0.2 mm precipitable, it's still the H2O that is the main concern in our field and nobody even talks about CO2 because CO2 doesn't absorb or radiate in the portion of the spectrum corresponding
with earth's surface temps of 220 to 320 K. Not at all.
Soden et al. have challenged these data as has Dessler, since they indicate a negative
water vapor feedback, which
does not agree
with orthodox hypothesis.
dude I don't think the observed reduction in relative humidity
with rising temperature implies a negative
water vapor feedback, just a less strongly positive
water vapor feedback than has been otherwise postulated.
Water vapor content has little
do with whether a region or hemisphere will have more or less snow.
In the report (PDF), which recants many of the popular skeptical arguments regarding climate change, Schwartz claims that [Al] «Gore's brand of over-the-top climate hysteria has nothing to
do with reality,» and that «Most of the greenhouse effect is natural and is due to
water vapor naturally in the atmosphere, as well as natural levels of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and a few other greenhouse gases.»
It's easier just to stick
with the known, 0.8 to 1.6 C per doubling, WM - GHGs only, since
water vapor is going to
do what
water vapor wants to
do.
Spengler et al. (2011)
did the following: they took a normal column of air
with an observable quantity of the
water vapor and then imagined, in a thought experiment, that all
vapor between 2 and 4 km in the atmosphere suddenly condenses, the latent heat is released in the sensible form and warms the atmosphere.
Once in the stratosphere the SO2
did slowly mix
with water vapor to form H2SO4 (sulfuric acid), but in the stratosphere there is no precipitation to allow for it to be quickly removed.
But if the atmosphere is NOT warming how
does that fit
with the narrative of blaming severe weather events on the extra
water vapor in a warming atmosphere?
If you want to claim that warmer air doesn't hold more
water vapor before condensing, then you need to go back to the 1800s and duke it out
with scientists from back then.
Putting these additional warming biases (conservative estimates) into context like you have
done with the ones above (Corrections to the «Observed» Record,
water vapor and black soot) would be incredibly helpful and informative.
Cointegration indicates that internal climate variability and / or the omission of some components of radiative forcing (e.g., stratospheric
water vapor, black or organic carbon, nitrite aerosols, etc.)
do not impart a stochastic or deterministic trend that would interfere
with the interpretation of temperature changes at the subdecadal scale (SI Appendix).
However, just because a warmer atmosphere CAN hold more
water vapor — where it is in equilibrium
with liquid
water — doesn't mean that it
DOES hold more water where there is no reason to assume that equilibrium exi
DOES hold more
water where there is no reason to assume that equilibrium exists.
So you're saying climate change science has nothing to
do with cosmic rays, the sun and
water vapor and that nothing but CO2 is of any consequence, according to the consensus.
Of course it
does not agree
with IPCC, who is selling us the message that specific humidity increases in march - step
with temperature according to Clausius - Clapeyron to essentially maintain a constant relative humidity (thereby resulting in a major positive feedback from
water vapor with warming).
The reasons why the Arctic is warming so quickly — a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification — has to
do with factors that are unique to the Arctic environment, involving feedbacks between sea ice, snow,
water vapor and clouds.