Give out one card per student and ask them to line up along a wall that
doubles as a probability scale.
Not exact matches
The report highlighted an increased risk of recession in Europe, which the IMF estimates at a 38 %
probability (
double that of April),
as well
as a 24 % chance of a Japanese recession.
If you want ot discuss Steve Stevens
as a fraud, best to stik to things like the lack of reason for
doubling up bets, the mathematically proven Kelly criterion adn the proper amount to bet on a $ 50,000 bankroll with a 70 % win
probability and 11 - 10 odds, and the fact that he tells clients he is great money - management adviser, and he keeps repeating that he is there to help you stay in control aqnd then tells clients to make $ 99,000 in bets based on a $ 50,000 bankroll.
In some recent research, Valerie Belu and I show that compared to regular elections (defined
as elections which occur within 6 months of the end of a parliamentary term), strategically timed opportunistic elections have allowed governing parties to realize an average vote - share bonus of just under 6 percent and seat - share bonuses of 12 percent,
doubling the
probability that the Prime Minister survives in office -LRB-.80 versus.40).
WACE has been going strong since about 2004 or 2005 — and
as a result, the
probability of severe winters has more than
doubled in central Eurasia, they report online today in Nature Geoscience.
In two out of these three equally likely scenarios, the
double - blue card is the one in his hand, so the
probability is twice
as great that the other side is blue.
Interested
as I am in the firm
as a going concern,
as opposed to its liquidation value, I would likely assess the
probability of a cash shortage and that would lead to an estimated cost of capital for future CF, but if I discount further the value of negative CF there's a risk of
double dipping on the cash burn situation.
This distribution, known
as the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) distribution, statistically models the
probability of different temperature increases caused by a
doubling of CO2 emissions.
It hurts your «
probability sense» to have to work with a positive that requires a
double negative — it simply has a smaller chance than a given positive number, like normal winter cooling
as the sun starts to decline.
Probability distributions of TCR (expressed
as warming at the time of CO2
doubling),
as constrained by observed 20th - century temperature change, for the HadCM3 (Table 8.1, red), PCM (Table 8.1, green) and GFDL R30 (Delworth et al., 2002, blue) models.
Evidence indicates that the human influence on climate has already roughly
doubled the
probability of extreme heat events such
as the record - breaking summer heat experienced in 2011 in Texas and Oklahoma.
The issue runs deeper than this, since such a regime shift could indicate the low - but - finite -
probability of some sort of bifurcation point in the system... I have seen this behavior in GCM's, not necessarily dor a
doubling of CO2, but for higher concentrations, and
as others have noted, the world doesn't end once we
double CO2.»
Of course all kinds of other effects will take place, and
as I said elsewhere on this thread «no AGW in response to
doubling of CO2» is within the subjective
probability estimates of climate scientists.
Paul —
as I said elsewhere on this thread «no AGW in response to
doubling of CO2 ″ is within the subjective
probability estimates of climate scientists.
I would conclude that the broad
probability distribution would include 2 - 8 C per
doubling, falling off rapidly outside that,
as constrained by models and paleo science.