Ensemble decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) can skillfully predict past decadal rates of Atlantic winter sea ice change because they do well at predicting THC -
driven ocean heat content change in the vicinity of the winter sea ice edge in the Labrador, Greenland, Irminger, and Barents Seas.
Not exact matches
It is widely believed that
ocean circulation
drives the phase
changes of the AMO by controlling
ocean heat content.
If La Nina / El Nino can affect global air temperatures in a period of a few years, than other
changes in
ocean currents (
driven by AGW) can affect global atmospheric
heat content in a few years.
The implication is that if climate
change,
driven by increasing greenhouse gases from human activity, increases the
heat content of the
ocean, storms passing over it will be able to draw ever more moisture that they can unload as rain.
Moreover if the surface temperature of the
oceans determines the temperature of the air, it is not the temperature of the air but the insolation and the clouds that
drive the
changes of the
ocean heat content.
The argument that this
change it is somehow
driven by energy reservoirs in the deep
ocean is clearly flawed: the deep
ocean would be * cooling * as it lost energy to the upper
ocean, but deep
ocean heat content is increasing at the same time as OHC in the upper
ocean is increasing.