For all three funds, we have the historical accident that the Fed
dropped Fed funds rates to near zero, leading to a yield frenzy.
Dropping the Fed funds rate to 1 % during 2003 helped drive systemic risk as they encouraged Americans to lever up and buy real estate.
Not exact matches
But the lack of any statement about when the next one would happen moved markets that trade in future interest
rates hikes, causing the price of so - called
Fed funds futures to
drop.
DR's simulations assume that last dot climbs in time to give the
Fed some height to
drop from when the next downturn hits (importantly, he stresses that the neutral
funds rate is very likely lower than it used to be), but, as I argue in the piece, with some evidence from market expectations of the
funds rate, I'm skeptical.
Score a +1 when the
Fed Funds Target
Rate drops by at least 0.50 %.
The
Fed's balance sheet grew, bank reserves began to pile up, and the federal
funds rate dropped well below the FOMC's target.
That keeps the
fund's duration low and CSJ shouldn't
drop as much when the
Fed raises
rates.
In December 2012, the
Fed offered forward guidance when it said that the
Fed funds rate would remain between zero and 25 basis points until the unemployment
rate dropped below 6.5 %, as long as inflation was projected to remain below 2.5 % and long term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
Concerns from Europe over Greek
funding coupled with a statement from
Fed Chair Janet Yellen, which included the word «patience» in regard to
rates, contributed to the end - of - the - month
drop in the index's
rates.
For instance, a bank that is a frequent lender at the
Fed funds rate, and wants to protect against a
drop in the
rate, would buy contracts.
The market
dropping after a.25 % raise to the
fed fund rate and it not recovering until they threaten to pull future raises off the table tells me all I need to know.