Last week we explored a simple
dual momentum strategy using three portfolios consisting of three mutual funds.
Does adding crash protection based on global market breadth enhance the reliability
of dual momentum?
Market timing results from 1998 to 2018 are based
on dual momentum model holding the best performing asset.
In particular, there is a model known
as Dual Momentum Investing which offers better returns while controlling the risk.
(For more on this, check out Gary Antonacci's study of monthly momentum strategies for U.S. - based investors in his recent
book Dual Momentum Investing.)
They found that
dual momentum applied to long - short stock portfolios generated striking returns of 1.88 % per month.
My book's GEM model is designed as a do - it - yourself approach
using dual momentum focused on stock indices.
The strategy was inspired in part by Gary Antonacci's» Risk Premia Harvesting
Through Dual Momentum» paper available on Optimal Momentum.
A very popular topic recently is
Dual Momentum which has the concept of when an ETF does not pass some filter, instead of investing in that ETF you invest in some alternative ETF.
To test
full dual momentum versions of SACEMS equally weighted (EW) Top 2 and EW Top 3 SACEMS portfolios, we add two more copies of Cash to the universe, thereby preventing both of them from holding assets with negative past returns.
One of the TAA strategies that I have often been asked about is Antonacci's
Composite Dual Momentum (ACDM from now on).
My
other dual momentum models like Global Balanced Momentum and Enhanced Global Equities Momentum are proprietary.
Additionally, there re-entry lags when a new bull market begins
after dual momentum has taken you out of a prior bear market.
Switching to bonds during stock market weakness as identified
by dual momentum has historically done better than being short stock indices.
Explore dual momentum timing model combining relative momentum with an absolute momentum based trend - following filter:
We have a blog post called «
Dual Momentum for Non-U.S. Investors» that discusses this in detail.
D'Souza et al. looked at both forms of momentum individually, as well
as dual momentum.
A model I run (adapted from Gary Antonacci's
book Dual Momentum) compares 12 - month momentum on domestic and foreign stocks.
They found that
dual momentum applied to long - short stock portfolios generated striking returns of 1.88 % per month.
But he wondered if the outperformance
of dual momentum would disappear if he used dollar cost averaging (DCA) because he would not be able to buy cheaply during bear markets.
In both rising and falling currency environments, we have shown that all world investors can still
use Dual Momentum to considerably outperform traditional fixed - allocation portfolios.
Gary Antonacci's «Risk Premia Harvesting
Through Dual Momentum» paper available on Optimal Momentum first piqued my interest in using absolute and relative momentum to invest in small groups of asset classes.
A nice review for Gary Antonacci's
Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk.
Our dual momentum models, which are most of the time in stock indices, do better by rebalancing on the first or second trading day of the month.
For more on momentum investing, please see our FAQ page, the rest of this website, and
our Dual Momentum blog.
As you can see,
dual momentum has done a much better job in both reducing tail risk and improving risk - adjusted returns.
Does
a dual momentum selection / weighting approach applied to the U.S. Treasuries term structure identify a safe haven superior to any one duration?
In their July 2017 paper entitled «Breadth Momentum and Vigilant Asset Allocation (VAA): Winning More by Losing Less», Wouter Keller and Jan Keuning introduce VAA as
a dual momentum asset class strategy aiming at returns above 10 % with drawdowns less than -20 % deep.
As an added bonus, the spreadsheet also has four additional sheets using
a dual momentum strategy with broker specific commission - free ETFs.
Also,
the dual momentum strategy has historically had relatively low turnover.
Does
the dual momentum strategy hold up well?
Does
the dual momentum strategy still out - perform?
In each case,
the dual momentum strategy still out - performs on an absolute and risk - adjusted basis its equally - weighted portfolio and the benchmarks.