Longer
duration bond returns should reflect expectations about inflation.
Not exact matches
Relative
return bond mutual funds and ETFs tend to have fairly constant
durations.
Given those
durations, an investor with 15 - 20 years to invest could literally plow their entire portfolio into stocks and long - term
bonds, in expectation of very high long - term
returns, with the additional comfort that their financial security did not rely on the direction of the markets, thanks to the ability to reinvest generous coupon payments and dividends.
DoubleLine Funds for a Rising Rate Environment — Total
Return Bond & Low
Duration Emerging Markets Fixed Income Funds
In
bonds, the Market Climate continued to be characterized by unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action, holding the Strategic Total
Return Fund to a short 2 - year
duration, mostly in Treasury inflation protected securities.
Over the long term the nominal
return on a
duration - managed
bond portfolio (or
bond index — the
duration on those doesn't change very much) converges on the starting yield.
The PowerShares Total
Return Bond ETF is an actively managed fund with the ability to invest in any number of fixed income securities with varying credit ratings, countries, and
durations.
Total
return bond targets remain at market neutral or shorter
duration when compared with benchmarks.
In
bonds, the Market Climate remains characterized by unfavorable valuations and unfavorable yield pressures, holding the Strategic Total
Return Fund to a
duration of less than 1 year.
However, even in this situation
bonds almost always provide a positive
return (if held for their
duration) because
bond yields and inflation rise together.
Strategic Total
Return continues to carry a
duration of about 3.5 years in Treasury securities (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact the Fund by about 3.5 % on the basis of
bond price fluctuations), and holds about 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
Given that the Market Climate in
bonds continues to be characterized by unfavorable valuations and unfavorable market action, the Strategic Total
Return Fund continues to carry a muted
duration of about 2 years, mostly in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
Former Fed Governor Stein highlighted that Federal Reserve's monetary policy transmission mechanism works through the «recruitment channel,» in such way that investors are «enlisted» to achieve central bank objectives by taking higher credit risks, or to rebalance portfolio by buying longer - term
bonds (thus taking on higher
duration risk) to seek higher yield when faced with diminished
returns from safe assets.
Long - term
bonds saw the worst
returns during these periods, which makes sense given their higher
duration (thus higher volatility and magnitude of loss).
While this only goes back to 1999, it would still be insightful to compare these two indexes on a year by year and aggregate basis for total
return and volatility to get a true sense of the difference that treasury
bond duration makes.
This is the process by which we put our research to work using the levers of credit risk and
duration to make money in the
bond market and to stabilize
returns over the cycle.
The market will do so by increasing the price of the high quality, long
duration bonds that we currently favor to levels that no longer offer a compelling
return and margin of safety.
We are experienced providing
duration matching portfolios with high levels of precision, while also determining the appropriate level of credit risk necessary to generate incremental
returns relative government
bond portfolio alternatives.
Investors who had the foresight (What does the
Bond Market Know, May 7, 2014) and
Bond Market Clues, May 14, 2014) to buy long
duration bonds have earned many years» worth of
returns in the last few months.
The iShares Barclays 10 - 20 Year Treasury
Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TLH) slipped to its lowest price since March 2012, while its longer -
duration counterpart, the $ 3 billion iShares Barclays 20 + Year Treasury
Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TLT) has erased two years of gains to
return to levels not seen since August 2011.
In
bonds, yield levels have become somewhat compressed, finally prompting a reduction in our TIPS position to bring the overall
duration of the Strategic Total
Return Fund to about 1 year.
Those who recognized this error, and invested in long
duration, high quality
bonds have captured these outsized
returns.
For now, the Strategic Total
Return Fund continues to carry a limited
duration of about 2 years (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact the Fund by about 2 % on the basis of
bond price fluctuations), mostly in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
In
bonds, the Market Climate was characterized by relatively neutral valuations and unfavorable market action, holding the Strategic Total
Return Fund to a relatively limited
duration of about 2.5 years.
Given that Treasury yields broke through levels that have been a fairly reliable barrier for several years now, it wouldn't be surprising to see
bonds stage a «relief rally» here, but both yields and market action remain unfavorable overall, holding the Strategic Total
Return Fund to a roughly 2 - year
duration, primarily in Treasury inflation - protected securities.
While this can be true depending on the
duration of
bonds owned and / or for nominal
returns over an extended period of time, it is
They evaluate factor portfolio performance based on excess
return of constituent corporate
bonds versus
duration - matched U.S. Treasuries (thereby focusing on the default premium component of corporate
bond returns).
Strategic Total
Return continues to carry a
duration of about 3 years in Treasury securities (meaning a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact Fund value by about 3 % on the basis of
bond price fluctuations), with about 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
Acquire the monthly total credit premium of each corporate
bond as the difference in total (coupon - reinvested)
returns between the
bond and a
duration - matched U.S. Treasury instrument.
Does the credit premium, measured by the difference in
returns between U.S. corporate
bonds and
duration - matched U.S. Treasuries, exhibit momentum?
The point is that, when including the G Fund,
duration can be increased in the
bond portfolio for a greater expected
return yet with similar volatility.
* Risk free
return is the
return that would be obtained if invested in a govt
bond for the same
duration as mutual fund.
For example, if short - term rates were to rise 1 %, you would lose about 2 % on a short - term
bond fund (assuming a 2 year
duration), and your total
return over 1 year would be about 0 % (2 % interest minus 2 % decrease in value).
On Tuesday, in response to evidence of accelerating yield pressures, as well the recognition that QE2 was much further along than investors widely seem to believe, we substantially cut our
bond duration to about 1.5 years in Strategic Total
Return.
Strategic Dividend Value is hedged at about half the value of its stock holdings, and Strategic Total
Return continues to hold a
duration of just over 3.5 years (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact Fund value by about 3.5 % on the basis of
bond price fluctuations), with less than 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
If you held the
bond fund for a similar ten - year period (as the
duration of a single
bond), the funds annual total
returns tend to approximate the starting yield.
The strategy of Strategic Total
Return has never relied much on the existence of a bull market in
bonds (indeed, our average
bond duration has rarely exceeded 4 years since the inception of the Fund, and has often been limited to just 1 - 2 years).
Strategic Total
Return carries a
duration of about 3.5 years, meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to affect Fund value by about 3.5 % on the basis of
bond price fluctuations, about 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
Honorable Mentions: The model finds Guggenheim Total
Return Bond Fund (GIBIX) is a good substitute for DBLTX and Shenkman Short
Duration High Income Fund (SCFIX) is a serviceable substitute for MPHZX.
I don't think I'm prepared to double the
duration of my
bond holdings to get 20 or 30 basis points more in
return.
I've learnt recently (thanks to Investing Intelligently and Efficient Market Canada) that
bond investors should keep fund
duration as short as possible because longer - term
bonds offer little extra
return for taking a higher interest - rate risk.
As interest rates rise, intermediate
duration bonds are expected to slowly
return to their proper place in the mid-term bucket, but for right now, an equally good choice for «safe» ballast in the mid-term bucket is cash.
And importantly, these
bond funds (and their underlying
bonds) may soon produce negative
returns if they are not held for a sufficient
duration.
Class A shares with sales charges performance reflects the maximum 5.5 % sales charge, with the following exceptions: Class A shares of Hartford Emerging Markets Local Debt, Hartford High Yield, Hartford Inflation Plus, Hartford Municipal Opportunities, Hartford Municipal Real
Return, Hartford Strategic Income, Hartford Total
Return Bond, Hartford World
Bond, Hartford Schroders Emerging Markets Debt and Currency, Hartford Schroders Tax - Aware
Bond, Hartford Schroders Emerging Markets Multi-Sector
Bond and Hartford Schroders Global Strategic
Bond reflect a maximum 4.5 % sales charge; Class A shares of Hartford Floating Rate and Hartford Floating Rate High Income reflect a maximum 3.0 % sales charge; Class A shares of Hartford Short
Duration reflect a maximum 2.0 % sales charge.
This category is also home to portfolios that attempt to minimize volatility by maintaining short or ultra-short
duration portfolios, but explicitly court significant credit and foreign
bond market risk in order to generate high
returns.
Bonds with shorter
durations are less volatile and less sensitive to changes in interest rates, and therefore have a lower
return.
Strategic Total
Return has a
duration of about 3 years in Treasury securities (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to affect Fund value by about 3 % on the basis of
bond price fluctuations), just over 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
We believe the
bond market is very efficient in discounting risk and
return potential over time and in taking interest rate risk along the
duration curve.
Their main performance metric is 7 - factor hedge fund alpha, which corrects for seven risks proxied by: (1) S&P 500 Index excess
return; (2) difference between Russell 2000 Index and S&P 500 Index
returns; (3) 10 - year U.S. Treasury note (T - note) yield, adjusted for
duration, minus 3 - month U.S. Treasury bill yield; (4) change in spread between Moody's BAA
bond and T - note, adjusted for
duration; and, (5 - 7) excess
returns on straddle options portfolios for currencies, commodities and
bonds constructed to replicate trend - following strategies in these asset classes.
When
bond yields go down, long
duration debt / gilt funds give
returns in double digits.