It seems reasonable to accept a little duration risk
during bear markets in stocks.
Not exact matches
I think you missed perhaps the most important reason, which is bonds provide a source of income, and capital to liquidate,
during a
bear market so that you never have to sell
stocks in a
bear market.
Imagine 2 hypothetical investors — an investor who panicked, slashed his equity allocation from 90 % to 20 %
during the
bear markets in 2002 and 2008, and subsequently waited until the
market recovered before moving his
stock allocation back to a target level of 90 %; and an investor who stayed the course
during the
bear markets with a 60/40 allocation of
stocks and bonds.4
Intermediate - term bonds were up an average of more than 7 percent, earning a spread of more than 37 percent
in outperformance over
stocks during a
bear market.
Most Millennials are investing directly into Target Date Retirement Funds which have high equity exposure due to the long retirement horizon — so despite having grown up
during two
bear markets Millennials are still investing and believe
in stock investing.
Bear market declines average 1.25 years
in duration,
during which time
stocks fall at an average rate of about -28 % annualized.
If you want to ensure you get the big returns from
stocks that investment writers highlight when urging you to invest
in equities, you need to buy
during bear markets to make up for the lousy returns from those years when you buy at what proves to be the top of a bull
market.
The object is to be
in stocks that are leading the
market higher
in bull
markets, and if you are not opposed to short selling, being short
in the weakest
stocks that are leading the
market lower
during bear markets.
In the article there is the reference to «a good rule of thumb would be to never own more stocks in a bull market than you're comfortable holding during a bear market.&raqu
In the article there is the reference to «a good rule of thumb would be to never own more
stocks in a bull market than you're comfortable holding during a bear market.&raqu
in a bull
market than you're comfortable holding
during a
bear market.»
Since dividends are continuously and periodically generated, you are likely to even purchase
stocks using your dividends
during bear market conditions, resulting
in higher dividend income (remember the internal compounding example
in Part 3?)
Notice that
during the last three
bear markets, and especially
during the last two major
stock -
market declines beginning
in 2000 and 2007, bonds ramped up their defensive characteristics, helping a standard policy portfolio avoid between roughly 55 and 70 percent of the drawdown.
In most cases, value
stocks tend to outperform
during bear markets and are thus considered defensive investments.
While most
stocks are punished
during bear markets, the real damage is often concentrated
in certain groups, like Technology
stocks in 2002 and the Nifty Fifty
stocks in 1974.
Traders are
born during bull runs: this is because they assume that their success with
stock trading
during a bull
market is a result of their
market timing skills, rather than due to the perpetual upward movement of
stock prices
in general.
But robo - advisors have gained popularity
in recent years
during a period of relative strength on the
stock markets,
in part by
marketing toward younger clients who may not have the scars of
bear markets of the past to remind them they're a natural part of the
market cycle.
Since dividends are continuously and periodically generated, you are likely to even purchase
stocks using your dividends
during bear market conditions, resulting
in higher dividend income (remember the internal compounding example
in Part 3?)
The introduction of our Dynamic Asset Allocation strategy (DAA), which contains within its normal operating structure the ability to get completely out of
stocks during a
bear market was a significant step
in this direction.
What's interesting about the graph is where the red line — the European Value Index — typically sits
in relation to US
stocks during bear market declines, especially
in more recent data.
During the latest
bear market in 2008, we saw
stocks plummet drastically but the Barclays U.S. Aggregate bond index had a positive return of more than 5 %
in 2008 and almost 6 %
in 2009.
I noted back
in 2007,
during a similar period of frustration, that less than half of the typical bull
market gain is retained by the end of the subsequent
bear market - «Once
stocks become richly valued, the remaining gains achieved by the
market are almost always purely speculative - they are generally erased over the remaining course of the
market cycle.
Even
during this year's
bear market, Cabot Top Ten Report has found winners
in stocks like Cleveland - Cliffs, which doubled
in four months, Continental Resources, which rose 160 % from its recommendation its peak, and Walter Industries, which moved from 42
in January to 112
in early July.
The majority of the Nifty - Fifty on the list had price to earnings ratio of 50 or more which is why they were also named «50» — these
stocks lost their luster
during the
bear market of 1973 - 1974, where these
stocks were crushed
in a matter of months.
On average,
stock splits are more likely to be announced
during bull
markets (an average of 20 per month) than
in bear markets (13 per month).
Realty Income Corp's resistance to a
bear market and economic volatility was clear
during America's financial crisis when the company's sales dropped by a mere 1 % and O
stock declined by just 8 %
in 2008.
Notice that
during the last three
bear markets, and especially
during the last two major
stock -
market declines beginning
in 2000 and 2007, bonds ramped up their defensive characteristics, helping a standard policy portfolio avoid between roughly 55 and 70 percent of the drawdown.
Now, relative to the gut - wrenching double - digit drops we periodically see
in the
stock markets (50 %
during the last severe
bear market), 3 % doesn't sound so bad.
«It's profitable to be
in stocks during bull
markets, but it's even more profitable to be short
stocks, or at least out of the
market,
during bear markets — even if many of the major bull
market months are missed completely,» Shilling has advised since at least 1992.
Bear market declines average 1.25 years
in duration,
during which time
stocks fall at an average rate of about -28 % annualized.
Small caps have historically performed stronger than mid - and large - cap
stocks during recoveries and weaker
in bear markets.
Value
stocks tend to outperform by falling less
during bear markets and growth
stocks tend to outperform
in the bullish phase.