The optimal portfolio would be long during the boom phase of the credit cycle, and short
during the bust phase.
All three indicators tell a similar story of rapid acceleration during the housing boom, sharp
declines during the bust and steady recovery since 2012.
Now when you say, making their payments on time, what if they ran into some bumpy roads
back during the bust?
During bust times, far more corporate debt defaults than would be expected — there's almost no such thing as an average year.
During boom periods, capital flows from the developed countries to the developing countries;
during bust periods, capital gets withdrawn.
The commercial and residential real estate markets got
crushed during the bust and many regions are still seeing strong price gains back to fair value.
In short, it's hard to make the case for active versus market trackers based on the notion that active will somehow do any
better during a bust.
And I see that most of the people that lost their
jobs during the bust are now employed again and with decent jobs too - i.e. back to their regular pay or better.
These people were largely ignored by the
media during the bust but millions of them are still being hurt by the Great Real Estate Bubble.
All three indicators tell a similar story of rapid acceleration during the housing boom, sharp
declines during the bust and steady recovery since 2012.
Now when you say, making their payments on time, what if they ran into some bumpy roads
back during the bust?
The gold market is generally weak relative to the industrial metals markets during the boom phase of the inflation - fueled, central - bank - sponsored boom / bust cycle and strong relative to the industrial metals
markets during the bust phase of the cycle.
The diminished dispersion of expectations depicted in the animation was consistent with a market recovering from the waves of uncertainties unleashed by repeated government policy
interventions during the bust.
I wouldn't call house prices a bubble — and I don't expect house prices to decline nationally
like during the bust.»
It is rough for anyone relying on ratings
during the bust of the cycle, because the philosophy shifts from «ratings are made over a full credit cycle» to «ratings should last until lunchtime, maybe, uh, look the stock price is down 5 %, post a downgrade.»
The Dallas banker, best known for playing poker for the highest stakes against the pros, stopped lending during the boom, and has started
again during the bust.
But if the rich have done well in bubbles, they have taken enormous hits to their
wealth during busts.
Just as the booms were inflationary in nature, the busts were deflationary, as the amount of money substitutes
contracted during the bust phases.
Home prices in San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco dropped well below their
peaks during the bust, so they had a lot of room to rise.
April 28, 2018 • In Phoenix, homes lost 56 percent of their
value during the bust, plunging hundreds of thousands of homeowners underwater on their mortgages.
This picks up the growth in debt, the misaligned short - term versus long - term incentives, crowd behavior, imitation, political agreement with booms, finger -
pointing during busts, etc..
You can imagine the homebuilders and the finance companies did very well during the boom and fell the
hardest during the bust.
They will quickly find that politics favors concentrated special interests that petition the government to increase systemic risk during boom times, leaving the economy to
flounder during the bust times.
Selling or IPO - ing
units during the bust phase, when valuations are compressed does not seem to be an optimal strategy here.
During bust conditions, those following an actuarial model survive, while many following the financial model don't.
Studying economic history gives us an edge by giving us wisdom to avoid manias, and avoid jumping in too
soon during the bust phase.
But the financial devastation
experienced during busts has left many skeptical of whether the booms are worth the price that is paid for them.
They happily accept credit for a good economy, and
then during busts, they borrow from the future in order to make the present better.
«Over the past decade, finding «comps» that accurately reflect values has been a challenge as values rose quickly during the boom and fell just as
fast during the bust,» according to a recent article by RISMedia, 5 Ways to Fight a Low Appraisal.
By adding 3.6 % to the actual 2000 price and repeating that for each subsequent year, we can see that prices were overvalued during the boom,
undervalued during the bust, and a little bit LOWER than where they should be right now.
It even partially explains
why during the bust we saw home prices fall in cities that didn't even have booms.
A 5 % minimum down payment in the U.S. would have muted the home price increases during the boom and it would have also muted the number of foreclosures and the home price
decreases during the bust.
It is important to note however, the general pattern that emerges: The areas with the largest recent percentage gains are those that rose the highest during the boom and fell the
most during the bust.
Hard - hit Las Vegas, which lagged behind other
areas during the bust, was up 1.6 percent from July and 0.9 percent from August 2011.
In other words, the gold / GYX ratio (gold relative to the Industrial Metals Index) tends to fall during the booms, which are periods when economic confidence rises while mal - investment sets the stage for an economic contraction, and
rise during the busts, which are periods when the mistakes of the past come to the fore.
Phoenix was one of the hardest hit housing
markets during the bust, with home values declining 57 % from 2006 through mid-2011.
The diminished dispersion of expectations depicted in the animation was consistent with a market recovering from the waves of uncertainties unleashed by repeated government policy
interventions during the bust.