Pfeffer (contributor to the sea level chapter 13) was the least hysterical, pointing out that the AR5 increase in projected SL rise over AR4 is mostly a result of having incorporated «rapid
dynamic ice loss», a phenomenon that is not yet well understood.
They refer to this as
dynamic ice loss.
«This is the area where it may become unstable, causing retreat, thinning and huge
dynamic ice loss.
Not exact matches
The estimated 2010 or 2011 surface mass imbalance (~ 300 Gt / yr) is comparable to the GRACE estimates of the total mass
loss (which includes
ice loss via
dynamic effects such as the speeding up of outlet glaciers) of 248 ± 43 Gt / yr for the years 2005 - 2009 Chen et al, 2011.
One of the things about
ice melting (and this goes for
dynamic ice sheet effects as well) is that melt /
loss rates increase more than linearly with temperature.
This result would be strongly dependent on the exact
dynamic response of the Greenland
ice sheet to surface meltwater, which is modeled poorly in todays global models.Yes human influence on the climate is real and we might even now be able to document changes in the behavior of weather phenomena related to disasters (e.g., Emanuel 2005), but we certainly haven't yet seen it in the impact record (i.e., economic
losses) of extreme events.
One has to delve deeply into the appendix of Chapter 11 of the TAR to find out what these extra 18 cm entail: they include a «mass balance uncertainty» and an «
ice dynamic uncertainty», where the latter is simply assumed to be 10 % of the total computed mass
loss of the Greenland
ice sheet.
A process of
dynamic glacial thinning also seems to occur, running back - stream up the glacier, in response to the initial shock of the
ice - shelf
loss.
The end result is the glaciers accelerate seaward, causing
dynamic thinning, increased calving, and a large
loss of
ice mass that continues until a new equilibrium is established.
In 2009, using ICESat, measurements of both Greenland and Antarctica found that
dynamic thinning (
ice loss resulting from accelerated glacier flow) now reached all latitudes in Greenland, and had intensified at key areas of Antarctica's grounding line.
Zwally deemed it necessary to acknowledge climate change fears and suggested that if the rate of
dynamic thinning continues, Antarctica could begin exhibiting a net
loss of
ice within the next 20 years, but only if there was no compensating snowfall.
The West Antarctic
Ice Sheet is experiencing high rates of mass
loss and displays distinct patterns of elevation lowering that point to a
dynamic imbalance.
But this type of
ice loss — known as
dynamic thinning — is so ill - understood and difficult to predict that the IPCC, in their 2007 assessment report, threw up their hands and refused to guess how much it would contribute to future sea level rise.