In general, the heuristic approaches forecast a mean September extent around 4.1 million km2, whereas the statistical and dynamical modeling approaches both suggest mean September extent near 5.1 million km2, with
the dynamical modeling contributions showing a narrower range.
2016 Sea Ice Outlook predictions from
dynamical modeling contributions (labeled in blue and green fonts) and from all other methods (labeled in grey).
Sea Ice Outlook predictions from
dynamical modeling contributions are in blue (coupled) and green (ocean - sea ice).
The lower (upper) dashed horizontal line is the lowest (largest) bound when
all dynamical modeling contributions are considered.
Sea Ice Outlook predictions from
dynamical modeling contributions (blue and green) and from all other methods (grey) for the July Outlook.
Analysis of the 14
dynamical model contributions shows that the range among the individual outlooks is less than last year and as a whole.
Not exact matches
The highest prediction of 6.0 million square kilometers is based on a
dynamical model forecast using the US Navy Earth System Model (NESM), whereas the lowest prediction of 3.4 million square kilometers comes from a heuristic contribu
model forecast using the US Navy Earth System
Model (NESM), whereas the lowest prediction of 3.4 million square kilometers comes from a heuristic contribu
Model (NESM), whereas the lowest prediction of 3.4 million square kilometers comes from a heuristic
contribution.
This claim is complemented with a broad literature synthesis of past work in numerical weather prediction, observations,
dynamical theory, and
modeling in the central U.S. Importantly, the discussion also distills some notoriously confusing aspects of the super-parameterization approach into clear language and diagrams, which are a constructive
contribution to the literature.
The June, July, and August SIO reports received a total of 106
contributions for pan-Arctic extent predictions (based on multiple methods: statistical,
dynamical models, estimates based on trends, and subjective information) along with
contributions for Alaska regional extent predictions, descriptive regional
contributions, and pan-Antarctic extent predictions — a new SIO feature for 2017.
Nine
contributions stemmed from fully - coupled
dynamical models, and five from ocean - sea ice
models forced by atmospheric reanalyses or atmospheric
model output.
Contributions are based on a range of methods: statistical,
dynamical models, estimates based on trends, and subjective information.