I continue to believe that rates will have to go up (
e.g. reversion to the mean, reduce the «real» value of $ 20T in US debt, expiration of «conspiracy theory» suggesting the Fed held rates on the floor until the election to get Hillary elected, etc, etc)....
2) By extending the projection horizon by an extra market cycle (~ 6 years - the current half - cycle is quite long - in - the - tooth from a hisorical perspective) the effect of
mean reversion has a greater chance
to dominate the occasional noise that emerges (
e.g. during the tech bubble) over shorter horizons.