My position remains that only a broader perspective (
earlier Holocene temperature data compared to recent data) can provide the background to know if the models are close to accurate.
Leonid Polyak of the Byrd Polar Research Center at Ohio State University notes that the general climatic and ice situation in the Arctic now appears very different than what prevailed in
earlier Holocene warm periods: «Overall, the early - Holocene situation in the Arctic seems to be very different from the modern one.
All the comparisons between
the earlier holocene and presents temperature use the paper only for the history.
look back into
the earlier Holocene, just about 5,000 years ago, and we see these «hills» are not hills at all.
peer back into
the earlier Holocene, just about 5,000 years ago, and we see these «hills» were not hills at all.
Their findings reveal that dung beetles were much more frequent in the previous interglacial period (from 132,000 to 110,000 years ago) compared with
the early Holocene (the present interglacial period, before agriculture, from 10,000 to 5,000 years ago).
DNA from
early Holocene American dog.
«These specimens should have been compared to
early Holocene skeletons from China,» because they look much the same, contends paleoanthropologist Peter Brown, from the University of New England in Australia.
We find that ENSO variance was close to the modern level in
the early Holocene and severely damped ~ 4 - 5 ka.
«Ancient Peru: Major discovery of early human life: Elaborate baskets reveal sophisticated societies in the late pleistocene and
early Holocene ages.»
«The combined sea ice data suggest that the seasonal Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of
the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean.
Piperno and Winter devised a scheme to essentially travel back in time by comparing plants grown in modern conditions with plants grown in
the early Holocene chamber.
«We grew teosinte in the conditions that it encountered 10,000 years ago during
the early Holocene period: temperatures 2 - 3 degrees Celsius cooler than today's with atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at around 260 parts per million,» said Dolores Piperno, senior scientist and curator of archaeobotany and South American archaeology at the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, who led the project.
The recovery and first analysis of
an Early Holocene human skeleton from Kennewick, Washington.
Incidence of the most important climatic perturbations of the late Pleistocene and
early Holocene onthe phylogeography and population genetics of the Talas's tuco - tuco (Ctenomys talarum) from theArgentinean Pampas Matias Mora
Evidence from isotopic data on
Early Holocene bison and other large herbivores in northern Europe.
Late Pleistocene -
Early Holocene Maghreb.
Chatters, James C. 2000 The Recovery and First Analysis of
the Early Holocene Human Skeleton from Kennewick, Washington.
We also infer that population structure existed in the late Pleistocene of North America with Shuká Káa on a different ancestral line compared with other North American individuals from the late Pleistocene or
early Holocene (i.e., Anzick - 1 and Kennewick Man).
This concatenation, which has global temperature 13.9 °C in the base period 1951 — 1980, has the first decade of the 21st century slightly (∼ 0.1 °C) warmer than
the early Holocene maximum.
Sea level models suggest that the islands were larger and closer to the mainland and each other during the terminal Pleistocene and
early Holocene but, throughout the Quaternary, they were always separated from the mainland by a watergap of at least 7 km [23,24].
would a plausible physical explanation be that the deep ocean and ice sheets are still responding somewhat to the post-glacial temperature increase (eg, T - T0, 0 > 0), but that the faster components of SLR like the surface oceans and glaciers were actually responding to the decrease in temperature since
the early Holocene?
The Wolcott paper was fascinating in the detail but not that surprising in the big picture; warming from
the early Holocene to the inter-glacial optimum about 5000 years ago and then slow but steady cooling culminating in the LIA.
That would also imply that (T - T0 (t)-RRB- must be negative during the pre-900 period when SLR = 0... would a plausible physical explanation be that the deep ocean and ice sheets are still responding somewhat to the post-glacial temperature increase (eg, T - T0, 0 > 0), but that the faster components of SLR like the surface oceans and glaciers were actually responding to the decrease in temperature since
the early Holocene?
And
the Early Holocene ice minimum is related to the changes in the orbit of the Earth (principally because the perihelion was in N.H. summer, rather than in January).
There is no evidence for that now, or in the recent past when Arctic sea ice was less extensive (specifically
the Early Holocene or the Eemian).
[Response: Sea ice is still not at levels seen during
the Early Holocene, and since we are discussing sea floor sediments the main reason given to be concerned is that the change of summer sea ice will warm the bottom sea water, we are clearly not there yet.
Now we are having the strongest ice retreat in the Pacific sector and ice pile - up near Greenland — practically the opposite to what Funder's paper suggests for
the early Holocene.
This second hypothesis is compatible with reconstructions from dinocysts that suggest maximum sea - ice extent during
the early Holocene.»
Linsley: Our results would suggest that there was more heat in the oceans in
the early Holocene but it absorbed that heat much more slowly than it is now, when there are much more rapid changes going on.
You keep ignoring the fact that there is no evidence for methane burps associated with conditions in the relatively recent past (
early Holocene, Eemian) for which there is good evidence for warmer Arctic conditions than now, and you are happy to extrapolate emissions of a few Tg (at most) to values 1000 times larger on the basis of nothing very much.
Assuming we do at least as bad as
the early Holocene, then our inferior starting position means we could be at risk of a significant methane release.
1) Lack of such degassing events in the recent paleo - records, as Dr Schmidt points out this would appear in ice cores, yet the warmth of
the early Holocene and the earlier Eemian and Holsteinian interglacials did not trigger a degassing.
Previous work had already pointed towards a period of
early Holocene warmth somewhat higher than recent centuries.
10) Most recently,
Early Holocene, which had significantly less summer sea ice than even 2012.
[Response: The orbital configuration was different, with warmer NH summers than today (or even
the early Holocene).
There's also lots of research showing sea level rise is begining to approach
the Early Holocene Sea level Rise.
The drying trend apparently reached its peak about 5,500 to 7,500 years ago (referred to as Antev's Altithermal) and has ranged between that peak and the cold, wet conditions of
the early Holocene since that time.
In the high to mid-latitudes after
the early Holocene, with its remnants of ice - age conditions (tundra passing to birch forests), there was a transition to the mid-Holocene, marked by a progressive change to pine forest and then oak, beech, or mixed forest.
In equatorial regions the same evidence of high solar radiation and high rainfall at the end of the Pleistocene and during
the early Holocene is apparent in the record of the Nile sediments.
Check out
the early Holocene sea level rise before you say things like that.
Wagner et al. (1) report
early Holocene (10,070 to 9,380 14C yr BP) CO2concentrations — reconstructed from the stomatal index (SI) of fossilBetula pubescens and B. pendula leaves — of ca. 260 ppmv rising rapidly to values of around 330 to 340 ppmv, with one sample dipping to ca. 300 ppmcv.
Wagner et al.'s conclusion that «during
the early Holocene, atmospheric CO2 concentrations that were > 300 ppmv could have been the rule rather than the exception» conflicts with other independent measurements or estimates of CO2concentrations (2 — 5).
for article Reorganization of the North Atlantic Oscillation during
early Holocene deglaciation.
M.J. Bentley, D.A. Hodgson, D.E. Sugden, S.J. Roberts, J.A. Smith, M.J. Leng, C. Bryant;
Early Holocene retreat of the George VI Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula.
We find that following
an early Holocene advance just prior to 8 ka, Jakobshavn Isbræ retreated rapidly at a rate of ∼ 100 m yr − 1, likely in response to increasing regional and local temperatures.
As has been mentioned earlier, I think an accurate historical perspective (evidence) of the past 50,000 years (to include
our early Holocene) would go a long way in building interest from alarmists and skeptics in addressing the problem from a factual perspective (what has happened) rather than a mindless modeling game (what answer do we want to make happen).
Carlson, A.E., LeGrande, A.N., Oppo, D.W., Came, R.E., Schmidt, G.A., Anslow, F.S., Licciardi, J.M., and Obbink, E.A. (2008), Rapid
early Holocene deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet, Nature Geoscience, * 1 *, pp 620 - 624 /.
So far, what we have is a relatively unexceptional plotting of
early Holocene temperatures.
The lack of resolution, however, means that you can not compare their graphing of
the early Holocene with the 0.7 — 0.8 degree C. temperature change experienced over the course of the 20th century.