Sentences with phrase «earlier model simulations»

Similar patterns of change in earlier model simulations are described by Giorgi et al. (2001).

And if earlier model simulations have been proven wrong, why should we take seriously all the dire predictions currently being offered, on the basis of similarly contrived models?

Julie Hargreaves has a new paper out on this precise question and shows that the early model simulations had substantial skill compared to any naive model.

Not exact matches

In the Department of Meteorology at Stockholm University (MISU), researchers have done a series of model simulations investigating tropical cyclone activity during an earlier warm climate, the mid-Holocene, 6,000 years ago.

Research reported earlier this year hinted that events in the stratosphere might directly affect the oceans, but those findings were based on a single climate model and a computer simulation that modeled the stratosphere for a relatively short 260 years.

«Agent - based modeling is like a video game in the sense that you program certain parameters and rules into your simulation and then let your virtual agents play things out to the logical conclusion,» said Crabtree, who completed her Ph.D. in anthropology at WSU earlier this year.

Applied in combination with crop simulation models, it is also possible to evaluate local adaptation strategies as successfully shown in an earlier study for barley in Finland.

This simulation of the early universe shows matter arranged in filaments; a new observation supports this model.

Earlier versions of the model treated the interface region as a uniform, or completely charged, plasma, but the scientists knew something was missing because they never saw spicules in the simulations.

Such enhanced modeling and simulation capabilities held the potential to dramatically accelerate future product development cycles and could provide GE with new insights into turbine engine performance earlier in the design process instead of after testing physical prototypes.

In research published this week in Astrophysical Journal Letters, Dr Zoe Leinhardt and colleagues from Bristol's School of Physics have completed computer simulations of the early stages of planet formation around the binary stars using a sophisticated model that calculates the effect of gravity and physical collisions on and between one million planetary building blocks.

«Using observations and model simulations, we've demonstrated that rising Pacific - Atlantic temperatures were the major driver of rapid Arctic warming in the early 20th century.»

Consequently, in the past 20 years his research has evolved from an early focus on prioritizing the effects that humans have on coral reefs and the role that marine protected areas play in conserving biological diversity and ecological processes, to developing theoretical and simulation models of coral reefs that will help predict and suggest alternatives to reduce detrimental effects, to developing practical means to restore degraded reefs through manipulation of the food web and management.

The authors built a statistical simulation model to estimate the 25 - year incremental costs per quality - adjusted life - year (QALY) for Oncotype DX testing in order to evaluate the cost - effectiveness of GEP testing among patients with early - stage ER - positive / HER2 - negative breast cancer treated in community oncology practices.

For the earlier generation of models, results are based on the archived output from control runs (specifically, the first 30 years, in the case of temperature, and the first 20 years for the other fields), and for the recent generation models, results are based on the 20th - century simulations with climatological periods selected to correspond with observations.

Most of the modelling groups that contributed output to the current MMD at PCMDI also archived simulations from their earlier models (circa 2000) as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP1 & 2).

In an ensemble of fully coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the late Paleocene and early Eocene, we identify such a circulation - driven enhanced intermediate - water warming.

Because this issue continues to affect all coupled ocean - atmosphere models (e.g., 22 — 24), the warming (Fig. 3) represents the expression of positive biotic feedback mechanisms missing from earlier simulations of these climates obtained with prescribed PI concentrations of trace GHGs.

«The apparent contradiction between verification statistics is thus fully resolved: the cross-validation R2 of approx 0.0 demonstrates that the MBH98 model is statistically insignificant; the new simulations, implementing the variance rescaling called for by Huybers and newly - revealed in the MBH98 code, confirm our earlier finding that the seemingly high MBH98 RE statistic is spurious.»

«By comparing the response of clouds and water vapor to ENSO forcing in nature with that in AMIP simulations by some leading climate models, an earlier evaluation of tropical cloud and water vapor feedbacks has revealed two common biases in the models: (1) an underestimate of the strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback and (2) an overestimate of the positive feedback from the greenhouse effect of water vapor.

SAT observations and model simulations indicate that the nature of the arctic warming in the last two decades is distinct from the early twentieth - century warm period.

I haven't got to the bottom of this yet, but there are several plausible explanations: (i) some of the simulations in the downloaded models from the CMIP3 ensemble stop early, affecting the whole envelope of results, (ii) the use of common EOFs fail to capture large - scale temperature patters that are too different from the past.

Most of the modelling groups that contributed output to the current MMD at PCMDI also archived simulations from their earlier models (circa 2000) as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP1 & 2).

My own perspective on this is that it would be a significant departure from earlier work by Trenberth if he really came with empirical evidence (i.e. data based on actual physical observations, rather than simply model simulations) to support his position.

Judith, I think falling best estimates for aerosol offsets in the SOD (compared to AR4) and simultaneous continued use of earlier (larger) aerosol offsets in the climate model simulations borders on daft.

As mentioned earlier, the DICE model accounts for the impact of CO2 emissions on warming by computing Monte Carlo simulations based on certain assumptions about temperature sensitivity to CO2 emissions.

Earlier we had carried out simulations of Jupiter with the same model (Schneider and Liu 2009), but with slightly different choices of dissipation parameters (which are poorly constrained by data).

Interpretation of climate model simulations has emphasized the existence of plateaus or hiatus in the warming for time scales of up to 15 - 17 years; longer periods have not been previously anticipated, and the IPCC AR4 clearly expected a warming of 0.2 C per decade for the early part of the 21st century.

Over the next few years these GCM simulations will be extensively evaluated, problems will be found (as seen in some early evaluations1, 2), followed hopefully by solutions that lead to further model development and improved simulations.

Whereas most proxy - based reconstructions point to an early - middle LIG climatic optimum with reduced summer sea ice concentrations between 126 and 116 ka, the results of our model simulations only support a pronounced reduction in summer sea ice concentration for the LIG - 125 and LIG - 130 runs (in both time slice as well as transient runs; Figs. 8 and 9), but also indicate that sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean even under climatic conditions significantly warmer than today (Fig. 4).

Just looking at the AR4 and early AR5 simulations, it looks as if the different climate models give a wide range of answers.

Santer et al. have laid down the gauntlet with this paper in terms of providing a method for falsifying climate model simulations for the purpose of attribution of 20th and early 21st century temperature variations.

Your point 4: «The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial - era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism.

The deliberately exaggerated nature of some early simulations produced exaggerated modeling results, including significant changes in regional rainfall such as disruptions to Asian and African monsoons.

This scale factor was based on simulations with an early climate model [3,92]; comparable forcings are found in other models (e.g. see discussion in [93]-RRB-, but results depend on cloud representations, assumed ice albedo and other factors; so the uncertainty is difficult to quantify.

A model - data comparison for a multi-model ensemble of Early Eocene atmosphere — ocean simulations: EoMIP

The climate model simulations also suggest that Earth's climate was in a «typical» greenhouse state, with temperatures similar to more recent, and better understood, greenhouse intervals in Earth's climate history, like the late Mesozoic and early Cenozoic eras.

We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty - first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.

Their scenario B, which had climate forcing that turned out to be close to reality, led to four of the six dice sides being red early in the 21st century, based on their climate model simulations.

The 0C - 10C range for 2xCO2 climate sensitivity encompasses ALL the published estimates I have seen, from the Spencer and Lindzen lower end of 0.6 C (from CERES and ERBE satellite observations) and the Forster and Gregory range of 0.9 C to 3.7 C (based on «purely observational evidence» — see earlier thread) to IPCC's range of 2.0 C to 4.5 C (from model simulations based largely on theoretical deliberations rather than physical observations).