It should also be clear it does not matter that the uncertainty is higher in
the early part of the record, since these years will never become record years anyhow (as a consequence of global warming).
[Response: There is a chance of undercount in
the early part of the record, and I believe that nature would think the division of categories is fairly arbritrary as the windspeeds do not necessarily cluster at certain levels (as far as I know anyway...).
So we would expect the accuracy to be greatest in
the earliest part of the record (1983 - 1987).
Question: Is it possible that the apparent cyclicity in
the early part of the record is due to the station distribution?
We can see that, as expected, the program applied quite heavy adjustments to
the early part of the records, removing about 0.8 °C / century of a warming trend from the period from 1895 - 1980.
Infrared (LW) emissions rose in
the early part of the record (cooling in LW), dipped in the middle section and rose again more recently.
The increase in atmospheric mass over Antarctica from the early 1960s to the early 1970s discussed by Swanson and Trenberth (1981) is physically consistent with the upward temperature trends of
the early part of these records.
• There have been fluctuations in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes from decade to decade, and data uncertainty is larger in
the early part of the record compared to the satellite era beginning in 1965.
Note: the paleo reconstructions in
the earlier part of the record that coincide with CET «paleo appear to run a little cool.
More correctly, it depends on
the early part of the record.
Such short - lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in
the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic.
While major hurricanes (Figure 3, red curve) show more evidence of a rising trend from the late 1800s, the major hurricane data are considered even less reliable than the other two records in
the early parts of the record.