In the northern Rocky Mountains in the US, for example, an increase in wildfires has been linked to
early snowmelt in spring, extending the dry summer.
One more step: The unprecedented
early snowmelt in the north is an extra source of heat, which helps enhance a high pressure ridge aloft.
Overall, aquatic ecosystems in western North America are predicted to experience increasingly
earlier snowmelt in the spring, reduced late spring and summer flows, warmer and drier summers, and increased water temperatures — all of which spell increased hybridization between these species.
Barrow, Alaska, on the Beaufort Sea, recorded
its earliest snowmelt in 78 years last month.
This urban heat island has benefits for the residents, e.g., it has led to a 9 % reduction in the number of freezing degree days and
earlier snowmelt in the town.
For example,
earlier snowmelt in the Rocky Mountains exposes plants to increased frost damage, (e.g., Inouye, 2008), and declining summer fog causes stress to coastal redwoods (Johnstone and Dawson, 2010).
Rising temperatures are also leading to reduced mountain snowpack and
earlier snowmelt in the West.
Not exact matches
Changes
in flow patterns of warm Pacific Ocean air from the south were driving
earlier spring
snowmelt, while decreasing summer sea ice had the greatest influence on later onset of snowpack
in the fall.
Researchers have evaluated different mechanisms that could account for declining snowpack
in a warming world:
earlier onset of
snowmelt, a change
in melt rates and shifts from snow to rain under certain conditions.
«As we reach a tipping point and see our customary water storage system, the snowpack, melting more and
earlier in the winter, systems that rely on
snowmelt will need to be reevaluated and modified.»
The trends driven by
earlier snowmelt are likely to as they are «are very much
in line with the projections of future climate» from climate models, study co-author Berit Arheimer of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute said.
Mark Flanner, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan who did not participate
in the research, said that several factors could reduce albedo of existing ice, including
earlier snowmelt and melt ponds on top of the ice.
Melting glaciers,
early snowmelt, and severe droughts will cause more dramatic water shortages and increase the risk of wildfires
in the American West.
Stone, R.S., E.G. Dutton, J.M. Harris, and D. Longnecker, 2002:
Earlier spring
snowmelt in northern Alaska as an indicator of climate change.
Other studies have linked these oceanic cycles with
earlier snowmelts and warmer winters
in California since the 1940s, and with a decline
in California's coastal fog since the
early 20th century.
Reduced snowpack and
earlier snowmelt (see Water chapter) may further limit any potential gains
in productivity.
The
snowmelt was a full 10 days ahead of the previous
earliest instance,
in 2002.
The work, which appeared
in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
in June, shows that soot pollution on and above the Himalayan - Tibetan Plateau area warms the region enough to contribute to
earlier snowmelt and shrinking glaciers.
The years with the
earliest spring
snowmelt, which was one - third of the total number of years we studied, account for more than 70 percent of the area burned
in large forest wildfires, and 43 percent of the area burned
in nonforest fires.
Forests that historically had large areas with no snow on the ground for two to four months and high moisture loss from soils and vegetation
in spring and summer have seen the biggest increases
in wildfire
in early spring
snowmelt years (for example, the northern Rockies and parts of the Sierra Nevada).
Streamflow data supports warming by showing
earlier in the year
snowmelt runoff trends on rivers
in the Upper Midwest and northern Great Plains, beginning
in the 1970s and continuing to recent.
These include increases
in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice - free seasons
in the ocean and on lakes and rivers,
earlier snowmelt, and alterations
in river flows.
That means to me (according to what Michael Mann and Gavin Schmidt wrote), that my work on «
Earlier snowmelt runoff and increasing dewpoints
in the Upper Midwest» should not be given much credence.
The findings
in my paper show trends for
earlier snowmelt runoff and increasing dewpoints
in the Upper Midwest.
I wrote a paper titled:
Earlier in the Year
Snowmelt Runoff and Increasing Dewpoints for Rivers
in Minnesota, Wisconsin and North Dakota for presentation at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and Desert Research Institute conference, Oct 20 - 22, 2003, Reno, NV.
The trend
in declining Arctic Sea Ice (NSIDC) is similar to the trend for
earlier Midwest Spring
Snowmelt Runoff (mnforsustain.org).
Among these physical changes are increases
in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice - free seasons
in the oceans and on lakes and rivers,
earlier snowmelt and alterations
in river flows.
... «Conclusions on the Timing of
Snowmelt Runoff and Humidity 1) Trends were shown for recent earlier in the year annual snowmelt runoff at three river stations within the Northern Great Plains and Upper
Snowmelt Runoff and Humidity 1) Trends were shown for recent
earlier in the year annual
snowmelt runoff at three river stations within the Northern Great Plains and Upper
snowmelt runoff at three river stations within the Northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest.
Hotter and drier weather and
earlier snowmelt mean that wildfires
in the West start
earlier in the spring, last later into the fall, and burn more acreage.
These include millions of trees killed
in recent years by beetles that prefer warmer weather, and declines
in spring soil moisture brought on by
earlier snowmelt.
Suggested mechanisms involve changes
in the water cycle: increased evapotranspiration losses, extended water - stress periods,
earlier snowmelt, and lengthened fire seasons.
Normally, the highpoint for California's 24 major reservoirs and lakes is during the peak
snowmelt in late May to
early June.
Some
early season warmth (
in some spots, marginally record - breaking) has allowed for an acceleration
in Sierra Nevada
snowmelt, and many snow - fed rivers
in California and Nevada are currently running high and cold.
Streams fed by
snowmelt are reaching peak spring flows weeks
earlier than
in the past, and low summer flows weeks before they used to.
Late
snowmelt over the region
in late April /
early May, followed by heavy rains
in late May /
early June, resulted
in extremely high water levels
in the Danube, Elbe, and Rhine, with coastal flooding
in early / middle June there (49).
You can't fake spring coming
earlier, or trees growing higher up on mountains, or glaciers retreating for kilometres up valleys, or shrinking ice cover
in the Arctic, or birds changing their migration times, or permafrost melting
in Alaska, or the tropics expanding, or ice shelves on the Antarctic peninsula breaking up, or peak river flow occurring
earlier in summer because of
earlier snowmelt, or sea level rising faster and faster, or any of the thousands of similar examples.
Species that live downslope will also be hurt by changes on mountaintops; the Sierra Nevada mountain yellow - legged frog, for example, depends on runoff from snowpack year - round to support its three - to four - year life stage as a tadpole, and
earlier spring
snowmelt runoff caused by global warming may leave this hardy, once - abundant creature high and dry
in the summertime.
Other studies have linked these oceanic cycles with
earlier snowmelts and warmer winters
in California since the 1940s, and with a decline
in California's coastal fog since the
early 20th century.
A strong
snowmelt in late April /
early May and torrential rains
in late May /
early June could have been caused by the occurrence of persistent quasibarotropic high - amplitude QRA structures with zonal wave numbers m = 6 and m = 7
in the field of the NH midlatitude meridional velocity.
In the western United States, for example, snowpack is declining and snowmelt - driven streamflow is shifting to earlier in the year, leading to greater water stress in summer month
In the western United States, for example, snowpack is declining and
snowmelt - driven streamflow is shifting to
earlier in the year, leading to greater water stress in summer month
in the year, leading to greater water stress
in summer month
in summer months.
The
earlier snowmelt may benefit both species because there will be more berries, seeds, and bugs to eat
early in the season when food can be scarce.
In particular, more winter and spring flooding and drier summers are expected as well as less winter snow (more rain) and
earlier snowmelt.
In addition, climate change is very likely to lead to more frequent extreme heat events and daily precipitation extremes over most areas of North America, more frequent low snow years, and shifts towards
earlier snowmelt runoff over much of the western US and Canada (high confidence).
Seasonal drought risk is also projected to increase
in summer and fall as higher temperatures lead to greater evaporation and
earlier winter and spring
snowmelt.11
But
snowmelt water is seasonal, and the price - reducing effect of hydropower lasts only a few months a year, typically
in late spring and
early summer.
Projected warming and drying
in spring and summer combined with
earlier snowmelt and more winter rain would likely exacerbate this trend by facilitating fire ignition and diminishing fuel moisture during the dry season [85].
There has been a trend toward
earlier snowmelt and a decrease
in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of snowy areas.
For instance,
earlier snowmelt may not change the total quantity of water available but can lead to
earlier runoff that is out of phase with peak water demand
in the summer.
Forest Service chief Thomas Tidwell told Congress two years ago that his agency faces conditions of higher temperatures,
earlier mountain
snowmelt, and much longer fire seasons, which «our scientists believe... is due to a change
in climate.»
The ensemble mean of the MMD models projects a general decrease
in snow depth (Chapter 10) as a result of delayed autumn snowfall and
earlier spring
snowmelt.