More than 80 % of
early spread bettors were taking UNC yet the line came down by Saturday morning.
Not exact matches
Although many
bettors have been taking their action offshore, the total Vegas handle (which includes bets on the
spread, total, moneyline, parlays and props) has more than tripled since the
early 1990's.
Earlier this week I examined the significance of key numbers for
spread bettors by looking at the most common margins of victory over the past thirteen NFL seasons.
It's still
early in the week and the public betting trends can still change dramatically before tip - off, but we're already seeing the majority of
spread bettors backing the underdog in three Sweet 16 games.
Although it does not track reverse line movement like our
earlier spread system, it shows how WNBA
bettors can take advantage of lines that are artificially inflated by square
bettors.
However, with the low
spread and
early movement on UNC,
bettors are clearly sold that they'll keep the game close.
Early bettors were clearly waiting to pounce on this line and right now more than 60 % of
spread bets are taking the Crimson Tide.
Even though the Bills have been very kind to
spread bettors this year, the Raiders are getting all of the
early action.
Early bettors are all over Green Bay with 86 % of
spread bets and it would be difficult to envision this line dropping back below -3 since sharps will likely come back in and bet Green Bay at -2.5 if it does.
Clearly, casual
bettors don't place much stock in these
early results, with the majority of
spread bets hammering the road favorite.
--
Early in the week we published an article dictating whether
bettors should take underdogs of +2.5 on the
spread, moneyline, or buy to the line up to +3.
--
Earlier this season we wrote an article for ESPN which detailed why NFL
bettors should take small NFL road dogs on the moneyline instead of the
spread.
Northwestern at Michigan:
Bettors still aren't sold on Michigan, as they're getting just 23 % of
early spread bets as 8 - point favorites.
In
early betting, 72 % of
spread bettors have taken Notre Dame which has moved the Fighting Irish from -4 to -6.5.
Interestingly, 69 % of
spread bettors have laid the points with the Ducks, yet the reverse - line movement continues to indicate that
early sharp money has showed up to take the Buckeyes at +7 and now at some +6.5's at well.