Included in the guide is a set of templates to document decisions and organize the analysis to identify and select appropriate
early warning indicators for your school or district.
While research has
validated early warning indicators for high school dropout and other educational milestones in many locations, those indicators may vary across contexts.
This study examines the relationship between 8th and 9th
grade early warning indicators as predictors of graduation outcomes, as well as the relationship between 9th grade indicators and college enrollment outcomes.
Another recent project, also funded by the department of education, is examining the use of
early warning indicator systems to locate and provide interventions for ninth grade students at risk for dropping out of high school.
Scientists at the University of Exeter in the UK believe it's possible to come up with
early warning indicators of an approaching tipping point.
This installment of the Middle School Matters Institute Blog focuses on
using early warning indicator systems to improve student performance and reduce the risk of future high school dropout.
Ideally, schools will begin
with early warning indicators to identify kids who aren't on track to graduate on time, teachers and staff will know how to interpret that data, school leaders will give them time and resources to build relationships with students and families, and school teams will coordinate among district resources and community assets to provide the supports children and families need.
To identify these schools, we use Performance Matters and Unify to look at three years of data from state assessments and district assessments, as well
as early warning indicators, classroom summary reports, and more.
We also need to continue explorations of data of all types (not just test scores), building on, for example, important research that's helping us
develop early warning indicators to prevent students from dropping out.
Participants will be representative of the characteristics and diversity of student bodies, including those students identified
through early warning indicators (e.g., at risk of losing academic progress, becoming disengaged from school, etc.).
Montgomery County is one of a number of places across the country
where early warning indicator systems are either under development or already in place.
In an effort to be more proactive in identifying students» needs and providing them with appropriate services, growing numbers of schools and districts have
adopted early warning indicators (EWIs), often drawing on the work of organizations such as the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins and the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research.
This report examines data from the Baltimore City Public Schools to identify statistically significant, highly
predictive Early Warning Indicators of non-graduation outcomes, i.e., dropout.
Included in the brochure is a feature on
common early warning indicators, including chronic absences (missing more than 10 % of instructional time), failure to pass courses in core subject areas (English, mathematics, science, and social studies), failure to be promoted to the next grade level, and disengagement from the classroom.
Study findings will show how
accurately early warning indicators currently in use in these districts predict dropout for ELL and non-ELL students and whether different cut points for the indicators are more accurate for the ELL population.
This report from the Regional Educational Laboratory Midwest describes a project conducted on behalf of the Midwest Dropout Prevention Research Alliance to
analyze early warning indicators of failure to graduate high school on time in three school districts located in Ohio.
This guide from the Regional Educational Laboratory West at WestEd, written by Yibing Li, Jenny Scala, Dean Gerdeman, and David Blumenthal of American Institutes for Research (AIR), provides a step - by - step guide that school districts can take to identify and select their
own early warning indicators.
With Kickboard's
visual Early Warning Indicators helping to identify which students need their immediate attention, leaders feel confident in turning real - time student information into positive action.
For example, AIR researchers identified and
selected early warning indicators and thresholds for each of three school districts in Ohio to identify students in grades 8 and 9 at risk of failing to graduate high school on time on behalf of the Regional Educational Laboratory Midwest.
O'Cummings says the value of
early warning indicator systems» close scrutiny of the data — like naming names of mysteriously missing first - graders, as Superintendent Starr is hoping for in Montgomery County — is moving educators beyond assumptions: behavioral or demographic.
Destination Graduation: Sixth
Grade Early Warning Indicators for Baltimore City Schools: Their Prevalence and Impact examines the 2000 - 01 cohort of sixth grade students from Baltimore City Schools to determine whether there were indicators that predicted eventual dropout with a reasonable level of certainty and identified enough students to justify intervention efforts.
The Middle School Matters Institute (MSMI), an Initiative of the George W. Bush Institute and the Meadows Center for Preventing Educational Risk, is collaborating with Heritage Intermediate School in Etiwanda School District (Fontana, California) to provide professional development to educators in two areas: 1)
using early warning indicator data to keep students on the path to high school graduation, and 2) supporting reading comprehension across all content areas.
Participants will be representative of the characteristics and diversity of student bodies, including those students identified
through early warning indicators (e.g., at risk of losing academic progress, becoming disengaged from school).
We drew heavily on other work in this area, for example, Morris Goldstein, «Comments
on Early Warning Indicators of Financial Instability in Emerging Economies», Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (forthcoming) and Graciela Kaminsky, Saul Lizondo and Carmen Reinhart, «Leading Indicators of Currency Crises», IMF Working Paper, July 1997.
TDS helps school leaders set up and maintain school - wide multi-tiered student data systems for Attendance, Behavior, and Course performance in math and English — the «ABC»
early warning indicators of student disengagement.
He tells WBFO News looking at a new solution from the district's past attendance policy — a proposed system would rely on data — with
an early warning indicator system to track why a student is not attending classes.
Any changes, such as spotting skinny whales, might provide «
early warning indicators» about possible population declines, Tyack said.
The final report, titled «Just the Right Mix: Identifying Potential Dropouts in Montgomery County Public Schools Using
an Early Warning Indicators Approach,» goes back to first grade and identifies «cut points» that are related to an increased likelihood of students dropping out of school.
«
The early warning indicator system is not a diagnostic tool; it's a tool to flag students in a very systemic way,» she says, «based on research and based on our own longitudinal analyses.
Use
the early warning indicators to identify kids and families.