Even industry competitors — like Ford, which trades at a ratio of 6.6, and Toyota, which trades at 9.7 times — trade at higher multiples, and GM's average price -
earnings ratio over the past five years is 12.2.
John Bogle's modified version of the Gordon Equation (or the Dividend Discount Model) is that the total return from stocks equals the investment return plus the speculative return, where Investment Return = Dividend Yield + Earnings Growth Rate and Speculative Return = the change in the price to
earnings ratio over the period examined.
Not exact matches
Its average forward price - to -
earnings ratio has been 13
over the past two years.
Qualcomm Inc., for instance, is down 23 %
over the past three and a half months, while its forward price - to -
earnings ratio has sunk to 11.6 times from 15.
The differences in opinion arise primarily
over valuation and whether its rapid growth can continue to justify a price - to -
earnings ratio that rarely falls below 40 and has peaked as high as 138.
«If we assume extremely pessimistic nominal
earnings growth of 3 %
over the coming decade and a compression in the price -
earnings ratio to 10, equities would still deliver returns above current bond yields.
Over that past 20 years, the price - to -
earnings ratio of the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index has averaged 2.3 times the S&P 500 P / E
ratio; today, the current
ratio is mere 1.3 x, a 54 percent discount to its 20 - year average (according to Thomson Reuters, as of Sept. 26, 2017.)
There are only a handful of times
over the past 20 years that the Standard & Poor's 500 and the S&P / TSX composite index have had price - to -
earnings ratios this low.
The market's price - to -
earnings ratio (based on the latest 12 months reported results) raced higher in late 2017 and through January on growth - stock leadership and enthusiasm
over tax - cut - juiced profit windfalls for companies.
Forward P / E
ratios take into account expected
earnings growth
over the next 12 months, which means that they tend to be lower than the P / E
ratio for growing companies.
This
ratio is calculated by dividing the current Price by the sum of the Basic
Earnings Per Share from continuing operations BEFORE Extraordinary Items and Accounting Changes
over the last four quarters.
Notes: Price: Closing price per share; P / E: Price to
earnings ratio; Total Return: The total return generated by the stock
over the last year.
How does the U.S. stock market
earnings yield (inverse of price - to -
earnings ratio, or E / P) interact with the U.S. inflation rate
over the long run?
Longer - term metrics, such as cyclically adjusted price - to -
earnings, or CAPE,
ratios, are even more troubling, suggesting that U.S. stocks are likely to produce, at best, average to below - average returns
over the next five years.
CAPE essentially refers to the
ratio of current price to average annualized
earnings over the past decade.
While the current price / peak -
earnings multiple is already at an elevated level above 18, what I'll call the «P / E equivalent» multiples on other fundamentals are: 21 on the basis of book values, nearly 23 on the basis of enterprise value / EBITDA (which factors in the increasing share of debt on corporate balance sheets),
over 25 on the basis of revenues, and 29 on the basis of dividends (largely because dividend payout
ratios remain relatively low even on the basis of normalized
earnings).
The IMF cited the rapid decline in the average coverage
ratio over the past two years — the ability of current
earnings to cover interest payments — as its primary evidence.
We composed a blend of five key valuation metrics — including forward price - to -
earnings ratios and price - to - book value — and examined how strong the relationship was between starting valuations — or valuations at the time of purchase — and the variability of subsequent U.S. dollar returns
over time.
When the S&P 500 price - to - peak -
earnings ratio has been above 17, the market's annualized return following the initial rate cut was -2.3 %
over the following 6 months, 5.9 %
over the following 12 months, and 6.2 %
over the following 18 months.
AeroVironment's current price - to -
earnings ratio of 41 is expensive, but both drones and EV chargers are going to be big growth businesses
over the next decade, and I think this is a stock that's worth paying a premium for.
Even at the 1929 peak, the price / peak
earnings ratio on the S&P 500 index was just
over 20.
This substantially exceeded the 10 - year return of about 14 % which would have been achieved had the 2000 bull market peak been held to a P / E of 20 (the market's actual price / peak -
earnings ratio moved
over 32 during the bubble).
At the market's actual 2000 peak, valuations were so high that even a future price / peak
earnings ratio of 20 could have been expected to result in a nearly zero annualized returns
over the following 10 years.
It has very little debt, a PEG
ratio of.83, return on equity of
over 20 %, and has projected annual
earnings growth of 15 %
over the next 5 years.
For the
ratios, Amazon is
over five times as expensive on Sales and EBITDA, and thirty - seven times as expensive on
earnings.
Over the past 50 years, the trailing price - to -
earnings ratio for the S&P 500 has averaged 16.1 x.
Over the 50 - year period, the dividend payout
ratio averaged 43 %, meaning that 57 % of
earnings were being invested to support future growth.
In summary, current S&P 500
earnings forecasts indicate 12 - month trailing
earnings - price
ratios rising from below to above generational «normal»
over the next two years.
With its price - to -
earnings ratio of 19, investors aren't pricing in any spectacular growth
over the long haul.
However, if
earnings grow by an estimated 18.4 %
over the next four quarters, you've got a P / E to Growth (PEG)
ratio of less than 1X, which seems reasonable if the world can get along.
The cyclically - adjusted price /
earnings ratio («CAPE»), among other valuation metrics, suggests that stocks are priced to deliver flat or negative returns
over the next decade.
The current Shiller cyclically adjusted price to
earnings (P / E)
ratio of the S&P 500 is
over 29, well above its long - term average of around 17.
This is one of the few penny stocks offering a large dividend yield, at an
over 10 % forward rate and a relatively low forward price - to -
earnings ratio of just
over five.
The concern is that as rates rise it will cost companies more to roll
over their obligations, and if
earnings begin to slump as economic growth slows, that could blow out leverage
ratios and lead to credit - rating cuts.
Dividends are more stable than
earnings, so the payout
ratio certainly varies
over time.
Coca - Cola has a forward price - to -
earnings ratio of
over 18.
In a bear market, the market's price to
earnings P / E
ratios decrease
over an extended period of time.
Richard Ramsden, who heads Goldman's financials group in global investment research, says: «Banks can grow their dividends by roughly 20 % to 25 % per year
over the next few years, given that both payout
ratios and
earnings will be growing for the banking system.»
For context, Walgreens has traded at an average price - to -
earnings ratio of 16.7
over the past ten years.
We composed a blend of five key valuation metrics — including forward price - to -
earnings ratios and price - to - book value — and examined how strong the relationship was between starting valuations — or valuations at the time of purchase — and the variability of subsequent U.S. dollar returns
over time.
The criteria include: (1) adequate size with respect to revenue, (2) strong financial condition with respect to liquidity, (3) reasonable
earnings growth
over a decade (4) modest price - to -
earnings (P / E)
ratio of 15 or less, (5) economical price - to - book (P / B)
ratio of 1.5 or less, (6) 20 years of consistent dividend payments to insure the likelihood of continuation, and (7)
earnings stability vis - a-vis the absence of any losses
over the previous decade.
I'll help you keep a close eye on these
ratios over the next few quarters by updating them soon after each
earnings report.
(A backtest is simply a statistical look at historical data to determine whether employing a given investment factor, such as selecting stocks with low price -
earnings ratios, results in excess returns
over time; i.e., returns above a stock market benchmark.)
Most of our investments have characteristics that have been associated empirically with above - average investment rates of return
over long measurement periods: a low stock price in relation to book value, a low price - to -
earnings ratio, a low price - to - cash - flow
ratio, an above - average dividend yield, a low price - to - sales
ratio compared to other companies in the same industry, a significant pattern of purchases by insiders, a significant decline in share price.
«Common stocks of enterprises with only slight possibilities of increasing profits ordinarily sell at a rather low P / E
ratio (less than 15 times their current
earnings); and the common stocks of companies with good prospects of increasing the
earnings usually sell at a high P / E
ratio (
over 15 times their current
earnings).»
To calculate a valid price -
earnings ratio, a company must have positive trailing
earnings over the year.
They have demonstrated excellent
earnings and dividend growth
over the past 5 years and currently trade at a PE
ratio of 12; lower than 90 % of the companies in their industry.
* The cyclically adjusted price /
earnings ratio championed by Shiller, calculated by dividing the S&P 500 by its average inflation - adjusted
earnings per share
over the past decade.
For example, we might want to predict the likelihood that a company's stock will outperform
over the next few years based on a fixed number of financial
ratios (like the stock's return - on - equity,
earnings yield, and debt - to - equity).
Because
earnings measured
over shorter horizons such as one year are extremely volatile and mean reverting, the
ratio of prices to current
earnings does not predict future long - term returns.