It should also be noted here that approximately 20 % of the total
earth energy imbalance results from the albedo change of a melting polar ice cap.
In any case such number does not make any sense in context of
Earth energy imbalance topic at hand.
There can't be
an Earth energy imbalance in the air because the daily 10 - 20 degree warming / cooling cycle would very quickly reestablish the balance.
Not exact matches
«An important result of this paper is the demonstration that the oceans have continued to warm over the past decade, at a rate consistent with estimates of
Earth's net
energy imbalance,» Rintoul said.
Satellites have measured an
energy imbalance at the top of the
Earth's atmosphere.
Changes in TSI can be converted into a radiative forcing, which tells us the
energy imbalance it causes on
Earth.
Global warming is the result of a greenhouse gas - caused
imbalance between incoming solar
energy and heat that the
Earth radiates away to space.
By combining the ocean heating rates, TOA observations (figure 4) and other
energy storage terms (land, atmosphere warming and ice melt), the authors calculated
Earth's
energy imbalance from January 2001 - December 2010 to be 0.5 (± 0.43) W / m2.
Loeb (2012) takes an updated look at the issue and finds that, using observations rather than modeled estimates, the
Earth's
energy imbalance is consistent with heat building up with the
Earth system.
Either way the solar cycle - induced change in
energy received from the sun (0.25 W / m2) is large compared to
Earth's
energy imbalance.
As mentioned in the introduction, the satellites which measure incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of
Earth's atmosphere (TOA) can not measure the small planetary
energy imbalance brought about by global warming.
This may sound sound small, but it's rather substantial when compared to
Earth's
energy imbalance - that is: the difference between
energy (heat) entering and leaving
Earth's atmosphere - the global warming - caused
imbalance.
Climate or
Earth System Sensitivity, however defined and at whatever geological period (see the discussion in de
Energy Imbalance draft), is one thing, but polar amplification is another, it seems to me.
We use
Earth's measured
energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature.
The measured
energy imbalance accounts for all natural and human - made climate forcings, including changes of atmospheric aerosols and
Earth's surface albedo.
Earth's
energy imbalance is the most vital number characterizing the state of
Earth's climate.
Note that uncertainty in forcings is partly obviated via the focus on
Earth's
energy imbalance in our analysis.
Increase of
Earth's
energy imbalance from reduction of particulate air pollution, which is needed for the sake of human health, can be minimized via an emphasis on reducing absorbing black soot [75], but the potential to constrain the net increase of climate forcing by focusing on black soot is limited [76].
That warming increased
Earth's radiation to space, thus reducing
Earth's
energy imbalance.
If
Earth's
energy imbalance is 0.75 W / m2, CO2 must be reduced to about 345 ppm to restore
energy balance [64], [75].
We use measured global temperature and
Earth's measured
energy imbalance to determine the atmospheric CO2 level required to stabilize climate at today's global temperature, which is near the upper end of the global temperature range in the current interglacial period (the Holocene).
Earth's measured
energy imbalance includes the effects of all forcings, whether they are measured or not.
Earth's measured
energy imbalance has been used to infer the climate forcing by aerosols, with two independent analyses yielding a forcing in the past decade of about − 1.5 W / m2 [64], [72], including the direct aerosol forcing and indirect effects via induced cloud changes.
This
imbalance causes
Earth to warm and move back toward
energy balance.
The resulting planetary
energy imbalance, absorbed solar
energy exceeding heat emitted to space, causes
Earth to warm.
al.,
Earth's
Energy Imbalance and Implications suggests that many climate models underestimate the effect of positive climate forcings but also underestimate the effects of negative forcings due to aerosols.
As I understand it, the
earth has an
energy imbalance, which will not go away the moment GHG emissions cease.
It is ascertained that the
imbalance between the flux of solar
energy that comes to the
Earth and radiates to space is of 0.1 % for the last ten years.
Because we understand the
energy balance of our
Earth, we also know that global warming is caused by greenhouse gases — which have caused the largest
imbalance in the radiative
energy budget over the last century.
We show that observed global warming is consistent with knowledge of changing climate forcings,
Earth's measured
energy imbalance, and the canon - ical estimate of climate sensitivity, i.e., about 3 ◦ C global warming for doubled atmospheric CO2.
So, although the science isn't «wrong» regarding the continued heating of the
earth (net
energy imbalance), the rate of rise of surface temperatures may prove to be much less than predicted by the models.
This shortcoming motivated an attempt to derive RCP temperatures from RCP CO2 concentrations, using a simplified thermal inertia model called a Climate Response Function (CRF), described in the 2011 NASA / GISS paper
Earth's
energy imbalance and implications by Hansen et al..
[Radiative forcing is the amount of
imbalance between
energy reaching the
Earth and radiating into space.]
The Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics discussion page for «
Earth's
Energy Imbalance and Implications» makes for surprisingly interesting reading.
I notice that the ensemble trend (1993 - 2002) and hence your extrapolation amounts to (1993 - 2010) ~ 12E22Joules / 17 yrs which with the same 85 % above 750m 15 % below correction (as in Hansen,... yourself et al 2005
Earth's
Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications) and a straight 750m / 700m ratio correction gives about 0.55 W / m ^ 2 global (total area 5.1 E14m ^ 2) for the period.
DF, I would say that the best estimate of
earth's
energy imbalance is 0.96 W / m2 for the last 10 years.
The key points of the paper are that: i) model simulations with 20th century forcings are able to match the surface air temperature record, ii) they also match the measured changes of ocean heat content over the last decade, iii) the implied planetary
imbalance (the amount of excess
energy the
Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant heating «in the pipeline», and that there is an important lag in the climate's full response to changes in the forcing.
I would refer you to Figure 1 of Hansen et al (2011) «
Earth's
energy imbalance and implications,» Atmos.Chem.
It seems to me that «
Earth's
Energy Imbalance» paper is not strictly a science paper; there are also policy warnings e.g. «this example [~ 0.6 C warming in the pipeline]... implies the need for near - term anticipatory actions».
If the surface temperature is slow to catch up to that
imbalance then the
energy imbalance remains large, and we can have sufficient net heating to cause much faster changes in the ice sheets than from the comparatively smaller
imbalances caused by the changes in
Earth's orbit associated with the glacial periods in the past.
Another prominent source of natural variability in the
Earth's
energy imbalance is changes in the sun itself, seen most clearly as the sunspot cycle.
And finally, what's the connection if any to Hansen et al.'s «
Earth's
energy imbalance and implications»?
An
energy imbalance — the
earth is receiving more
energy than it emits (Google: Hansen 2005 abstract) 19.
Kiehl and Trenberth published their
Earth Energy Budgets showing a TOA
imbalance of 0.9 + / -0.15 Wm - 2 with their graphic implying that at the surface as well, then they complain about the lack of accuracy in the instrumental data.
And of course, the issue of the consistent rise in the best metric of
Earth's
energy balance - ocean heat content and the closely related sea level rise, get's ignored as though, through some miracle, a warming ocean holding in the bulk of the anthropogenic
energy imbalance gives we troposphere dwelling creatures a free pass.
«That's exactly why it is foolish and incorrect to use sensible heat in the troposphere as proxy for
Earth's
energy imbalance.»
Put at its simplest, Global Warming says that more GH Gases will cause an
imbalance between the amount of
energy the
Earth receives from the Sun, and the
energy it looses to Space.
I wonder how much you will decry them as a «proxy for
Earth's
energy imbalance» then?
And what scientists find in the
Earth's past is that the planet is highly sensitive to changes in
energy imbalance.
A better metric to gauge to real planetary effects of the TOA GHG induced
imbalance is of course to combine combine troposphere anomalies with ocean heat content anomalies, as well as cryosphere anomalies, to get a net
Earth system
energy imbalance.