Although it is too early to know if the actions will have a lasting effect, Jeremy Boak, director of the OGS, says he is starting to see declines in
earthquake rates in the areas where injections have been reduced.
For the past two years, UAlberta geophysicist Mirko Van der Baan and his team have been poring over 30 to 50 years
of earthquake rates from six of the top hydrocarbon - producing states in the United States and the top three provinces by output in Canada: North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia, Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan.
While unlikely, this rate could have been potentially explained by natural variations in
earthquake rates from naturally occurring swarms.
«The recent
earthquake rate changes (in Oklahoma) are not due to typical, random fluctuations in natural seismicity rates,» they said.
«We're trying to calculate how much energy is in the system right now and how long it may continue on — and at the
current earthquake rate the numbers are very big,» says Daniel McNamara, a seismologist at the USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center in Golden, Colo..
A local geologist, David Evans, noticed that the volume and pressure of the injections corresponded
with earthquake rates.
He began to look broadly
at earthquake rates in the U.S. and discovered an unsettling pattern: Between 1967 and 2000 the average rate of earthquakes east of the Rocky Mountains was 21 per year.
«Having no recorded history of mega tsunamis in Hawai'i, and given the tsunami threat to Hawai'i, we devised a model for Magnitude 9
earthquake rates following upon the insightful work of David Burbidge and others.»
Kansas had the second - highest
statewide earthquake rate in the central United States between 2013 and 2016, coming in behind Oklahoma, where a similar dramatic increase in seismicity also has been linked to wastewater injection.
Peterson isn't sure how engineers will use the new information, but he says the agency couldn't be confident in longer term predictions when so many factors — the price of oil, the actions of regulators — could
influence earthquake rates.
All three regions
saw earthquake rates rise dramatically as saltwater injections increased as much as tenfold.
Both findings are a significant step forward in explaining
why earthquake rates have soared in the central United States.
«Certainly our activity has been down lately,» he says, in terms of
both earthquake rates and size.
The earthquake rate in the state has grown at an astounding pace.
They settled on a one - year forecast based on the previous year's
earthquake rate and put that information in a series of maps.
«We show that
the earthquake rate in the Salton Sea tracks a combination of the volume of fluid removed from the ground for power generation and the volume of wastewater injected,» said Emily Brodsky, a geophysicist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and lead author of the study, published online in Science on July 11.
We find that the entire increase in
earthquake rate is associated with fluid injection wells.
An increase in
earthquake rate implies that the probability of a larger earthquake has also risen,» said Rubinstein, whose method seeks to balance all of the possible ways the hazard might change given the changing earthquake rate.
«This is an important finding because some previously held theories propose that there is a relationship between the largest magnitude of the earthquake and the injected volume, but what we have found is that the maximum magnitude isn't what's being controlled by the volume, it's
the earthquake rate,» says Atkinson, who notes that these two theories are slightly related because the more earthquakes that are induced provide more opportunities for a larger one to occur.
For decades, scientists have wondered how different natural forces impact Earth's crust and
earthquake rates.
«We don't know if
this earthquake rate is going to continue,» Williams said.