Two more
easing cycles began in 1980 and 1981, when stocks were trading at less than 9 times earnings.
Two
more easing cycles began in 1980 and 1981, when stocks were trading at less than 9 times earnings.
Now, if we look ahead to the first cut of a
new easing cycle, things are definitely more interesting.
As shown by the slope changes in the table, flatter curves have been characteristic of tightening cycles and steeper curves have resulted
from easing cycles.
A
Fed easing cycle tends to drive the real funds rate down to well below R *, and a tightening cycle tends to produce the opposite effect.
The monetary
policy easing cycle that involved many developed country central banks from mid 2002 to mid 2003 now appears to have largely run its course (Table 4).
I think that means European bonds are potentially positioned to perform well — especially relative to other bond markets in the world — because the ECB is very much on a
heavy easing cycle, compared with other countries where there is talk that rates eventually will rise (namely the United States).
9/14/2001 — 60 % through the
massive easing cycle where Greenspan overshot Fed policy in an effort to reliquefy the economy, particularly industrial companies that were in trouble.
Historically, the Fed tends to start new
easing cycles well into established bear markets, and not surprisingly, the subsequent returns have been quite good on average.
Following the first cut of a
new easing cycle, the S&P 500 has delivered annualized total returns averaging 23.01 % over the following 6 months, 21.18 % over the following 12 months, and 22.12 % over the following 18 months.
This will reverse the downward trend it faced in September and allow the Bank of England to break away from
its easing cycle.
In
the easing cycle that began at the Sep. 18, 2007, FOMC meeting and lasted through the January 2009 meeting, the committee acted swiftly to cut the federal funds rate by 500 bps.
But Bernanke is now compelled — against his better judgment — to declare an end to
the easing cycle.
The more aggressive
the easing cycle is, the harder the tightening cycle is.
During
an easing cycle, where the central bank decreases interest rates, making the trade off of credit risk for interest rate risk could be a good strategy.
The 1990
easing cycle began when the S&P was priced at 12.5 times peak earnings.
Bernanke is still in his break - in phase, and he is faced with the difficulties of
an easing cycle.
The two quadruple dissents occurred during the 1989 - 1992
easing cycle, when commercial real estate was in the tank.