Societe Generale strategist Dylan Grice is concerned that as a result of the Federal Reserve's ongoing quantitative
easing programs, all scenarios going forward lead to inflation in the United States.
The trend of a negative relationship between stocks and bonds does not appear to be related to the quantitative
easing programs of the Fed, but rather, as emphasized by Campbell, Pflueger, and Viceira (2015), is the byproduct of changes in the way monetary policy is being conducted.
They can begin lightening up on their credit
easing programs.
The Fed is wasting its time with its alphabet soup of credit
easing programs.
And while that hasn't happened yet, some analysts still are pointing to the billions in
easing programs that are undergoing in many nations.
International stocks are rising with the backing of quantitative
easing programs, with European and Japanese stocks up 18.4 % and 9.1 % year - to - date.2 In sharp contrast: U.S. stocks returned 2.3 %.2 We think more moderate returns are likely in the cards for U.S. stocks this year, which makes a good case for international diversification.
Although inflation is likely to tick up in 2018, and most central banks are stepping back from their aggressive quantitative
easing programs, the changes are probably not enough to cause 10 - year rates to move up substantially.
Recall that even major titans of bond fund management regularly differ in their views about the price impact arising out of stopping and starting quantitative
easing programs.
A good example are the quantitative
easing programs currently run by the Fed right now.
If the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan slow down their quantitative
easing programs and eventually raise their short - term rates, it may draw foreign buyers out of U.S. Treasuries.
The Fed is expected to continue raising short - term interest rates in 2018, and is also shrinking its enormous balance sheet resulting from the quantitative
easing programs it undertook during the financial crisis.
Recall that even major titans of bond fund management regularly differ in their views about the price impact arising out of stopping and starting quantitative
easing programs.
As widely expected, they also announced that in October they would begin to reduce the Fed's balance sheet from the expanded size reached during previous quantitative
easing programs.
The hard truth is that although rising valuations can continue a while longer, particularly if the European Central Bank or Bank of Japan add to their own quantitative
easing programs, valuations, especially those for U.S. equities, are already high.
Which is exactly what happened during all the US quantitative
easing programs.
There's no shortage of factors to weigh as the Fed stands ready to hike interest rates faster than anticipated on worrying signs of inflation growth and the tap of foreign liquidity supporting 10 - year Treasuries could dry up as central banks in Europe and Asia curb their quantitative
easing programs.
Also in 2015, divergence in monetary policies unsettled developed currency markets: the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan continued quantitative
easing programs while the Federal Reserve rhetorically led markets on a long, slow walk to the first increase in the fed funds rate since the global financial crisis.
However, some observers might remark that the rolling - out of quantitative
easing programs in developed markets over the past six years has also distorted financial markets.
Using gold stocks to benefit from a rise in gold prices may be a decent idea if the anticipated price movement is due to a fundamental change in the gold market that will cause a sustainable increase in prices, such as the implementation of quantitative
easing programs.
Friday saw speculation rise around the Federal Reserve's plans to slow down their quantitative
easing programs, in stark contrast to the current situation across the Pacific.
At present we do not see much likelihood of a QE3 program, at least not in the same nature as the previous quantitative
easing programs.
Indeed, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke listed the wealth effect as one argument for his quantitative
easing programs.
Since then we've had everything from successive quantitative
easing programs and a subsequent «taper tantrum,» to unprecedentedly loose international central bank policies (e.g. European Central Bank and Bank of Japan).
The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have also done well in their first steps toward unwinding their quantitative
easing programs.
In the periphery, the new stimulus package will force national central banks to adapt by cutting rates, and possibly extending their own
easing programs.
The United States pushed its currency to recession - range lows through its quantitative
easing programs, which stimulate the economy by printing new money to be lent out.
The Fed's huge quantitative
easing programs are just a continuation of the government's bailout, this economist says.
That will reinforce confidence in a stock market rally that got another boost yesterday from the European Central Bank, which refused to set an end date for its quantitative
easing program yesterday.
In Sweden, one of the Riksbank's deputy governors said the bank should start planning for how to deal with the end of its quantitative
easing program.
The move spurred speculation that Denmark's central bank may also depeg its currency; it's already cut its interest rates deeper into negative territory to counter pressure from a falling euro in the wake of the European Central Bank (ECB) launching a quantitative
easing program.
Finance Minister and former premier Taro Aso - who some suspect of dreaming of a come - back of his own - said on Tuesday Japan had no plan to buy foreign currency - denominated bonds as part of a monetary
easing program.
For now, the quantitative
easing program will continue at the pace of 30 billion euros per month.
Some argue that such options would allow more - troubled economies to keep borrowing at low costs in a scenario where the European Central Bank would stop its quantitative
easing program.
The bond buy - backs are a component of the Fed's quantitative
easing program, whose goal is to inject liquidity into markets and keep interest rates low.
Along with the Fed's rate hikes, the unwinding of the quantitative
easing program could also push fixed - income yields higher in the coming year.
In 2010, as the Federal Reserve continued its quantitative
easing program, Buffett sent the government a «thank you note» (in the form of an op - ed) for its actions, rather than its paralysis or politicking, after the crisis.
The survey results will not have gone unnoticed by the European Central Bank (ECB), which continues to pump money into the euro zone economy via its quantitative
easing program.
Draghi reiterated Friday that its quantitative
easing program could run beyond September of 2018, «if necessary, and in any case until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation.»
Last week, the European Central Bank extended its quantitative
easing program through the end of next year.
Skeptics feel that these figures are mostly repercussions of a combination of the ECB's quantitative
easing program and cheap oil, but positive indicators like rebounding business and consumer confidence show clear signs of economic improvement.
While policy doves like Rosengren currently hold sway over Chairman Ben Bernanke and the majority of Fed policymakers, minutes from last month's policy meeting suggest the quantitative
easing program could draw to a close by year end, earlier than some economists had expected.
According to Buiter, the ECB will not increase rates before 2019 and it will be scaling back its quantitative
easing program «very slowly.»
There are several reasons for the recent volatility, says E. B. Tucker, an analyst at Baltimore's Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, but the main culprit is the Federal Reserve's quantitative
easing program.
Noting the bevy of issues around the world — which range from hard questions about Europe, to the Ebola virus, to the Federal Reserve ending its quantitative
easing program — the generally bullish Lee acknowledged that «there's a huge list of worries here.»
When ECB President Mario Draghi sat in front of journalists after Thursday's Governing Council meeting in Malta, speculation was high that he would announce an eventual extension of the Quantitative
Easing program that was launched last March.
Investors are being similarly consoled in Europe, where, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi just reiterated his commitment to Europe's quantitative
easing program.
With America's quantitative
easing program coming to an end, investors around the globe are now wondering when interest rates will rise.
The Bank of Japan has made modest adjustments to its quantitative
easing program, although it has yet to change its policy guidelines.
Eight and a half years on since the Fed began its quantitative
easing program, it's hard to argue the Fed has effectively used monetary policy to raise inflation.
It should certainly get over any fear of unleashing a new taper tantrum,» said Rupkey, referring to a market sell - off when the Fed stepped back from
an easing program.