In recent months, we've observed one of the most persistent shortfalls from
economic expectations in years, as measured by various «economic surprise» indices.
Not exact matches
Despite the recent softness
in data — the Citi
economic surprise index for the eurozone is now at its lowest since June 2012 — markets remain stubbornly bullish on the euro with overall bets still near record highs as longer - term
expectations remain optimistic.
He and his colleagues at Edward Jones are hedging their bets, expecting at least some volatility
in the likelihood that a few of Trump's
economic initiatives underwhelm investors» lofty
expectations.
In addition to the aforementioned concerns, Golub noted fears about whether
economic growth won't meet lofty
expectations and signals being sent from the bond market, where a narrower gap between government bond yields is kindling fears that a recession is looming.
The number of housing starts across Canada has been defying
expectations lately, and the surge
in activity is contributing to
economic growth, too.
In the same quarter last year, Goldman missed
expectations, citing «renewed concerns about global
economic growth.»
Analysts attribute the turbulence
in global bond markets to emerging signs of firmer
economic activity and
expectations of higher inflation.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's radical new
economic policies, referred to as «Abenomics,» and
expectations of a bold monetary policy have prompted Japanese shares to surge almost 32 percent
in the last three months.
Also unsurprisingly, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George, dissenter -
in - chief at the bank, voted against the motion to stay the course, citing «
economic and financial imbalances,» as well as, further down the road, «an increase
in long - term inflation
expectations» as reasons for concern.
Chinese
economic growth met
expectations during the September quarter, maintaining the familiar pattern seen
in each of the past ten GDP reports.
Today its truck and minivan sales
in the U.S. are still growing, and with
expectations that revived world
economic growth is on the horizon, it is also poised to sell more cars and SUVs
in emerging markets such as China, says Oakmark's Bill Nygren.
U.S.
economic growth and the
expectation for higher interest rates should also give the rally
in the dollar more fuel, said Gina Sanchez, CEO of Chantico Global.
China's GDP may have beat
expectations by coming
in at 6.9 percent, but other
economic indicators point to a darker picture.
China's banks extended a record 2.9 trillion yuan ($ 458.3 billion)
in new yuan loans
in January, blowing past
expectations and nearly five times the previous month as policymakers aim to sustain solid
economic growth while reining
in debt risks.
Actual results, including with respect to our targets and prospects, could differ materially due to a number of factors, including the risk that we may not obtain sufficient orders to achieve our targeted revenues; price competition
in key markets; the risk that we or our channel partners are not able to develop and expand customer bases and accurately anticipate demand from end customers, which can result
in increased inventory and reduced orders as we experience wide fluctuations
in supply and demand; the risk that our commercial Lighting Products results will continue to suffer if new issues arise regarding issues related to product quality for this business; the risk that we may experience production difficulties that preclude us from shipping sufficient quantities to meet customer orders or that result
in higher production costs and lower margins; our ability to lower costs; the risk that our results will suffer if we are unable to balance fluctuations
in customer demand and capacity, including bringing on additional capacity on a timely basis to meet customer demand; the risk that longer manufacturing lead times may cause customers to fulfill their orders with a competitor's products instead; the risk that the
economic and political uncertainty caused by the proposed tariffs by the United States on Chinese goods, and any corresponding Chinese tariffs
in response, may negatively impact demand for our products; product mix; risks associated with the ramp - up of production of our new products, and our entry into new business channels different from those
in which we have historically operated; the risk that customers do not maintain their favorable perception of our brand and products, resulting
in lower demand for our products; the risk that our products fail to perform or fail to meet customer requirements or
expectations, resulting
in significant additional costs, including costs associated with warranty returns or the potential recall of our products; ongoing uncertainty
in global
economic conditions, infrastructure development or customer demand that could negatively affect product demand, collectability of receivables and other related matters as consumers and businesses may defer purchases or payments, or default on payments; risks resulting from the concentration of our business among few customers, including the risk that customers may reduce or cancel orders or fail to honor purchase commitments; the risk that we are not able to enter into acceptable contractual arrangements with the significant customers of the acquired Infineon RF Power business or otherwise not fully realize anticipated benefits of the transaction; the risk that retail customers may alter promotional pricing, increase promotion of a competitor's products over our products or reduce their inventory levels, all of which could negatively affect product demand; the risk that our investments may experience periods of significant stock price volatility causing us to recognize fair value losses on our investment; the risk posed by managing an increasingly complex supply chain that has the ability to supply a sufficient quantity of raw materials, subsystems and finished products with the required specifications and quality; the risk we may be required to record a significant charge to earnings if our goodwill or amortizable assets become impaired; risks relating to confidential information theft or misuse, including through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion; our ability to complete development and commercialization of products under development, such as our pipeline of Wolfspeed products, improved LED chips, LED components, and LED lighting products risks related to our multi-year warranty periods for LED lighting products; risks associated with acquisitions, divestitures, joint ventures or investments generally; the rapid development of new technology and competing products that may impair demand or render our products obsolete; the potential lack of customer acceptance for our products; risks associated with ongoing litigation; and other factors discussed
in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended June 25, 2017, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC.
However, the softness
in economic data, particularly as it relates to inflation, coupled with market
expectations that the first Fed rate hike won't happen until well into 2016 have inspired at least a momentary burst
in high - yield confidence.
«The rise
in long - term inflationary
expectations... suggests that part of the recent rise
in headline inflation may now be expected to persist longer than previously thought,» the Paris - based group observed
in the Global
Economic Outlook released today.
The banks demonstrated that their personal and commercial loans businesses are still solid, even as
expectations point to consumer lending growth slowing
in the coming quarters amid persistent
economic weakness.
Data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed the consumer price index rose 3.2 percent
in February from a year ago, versus
expectations of a 3.0 percent rise, while annual industrial production (IP) growth
in January and February combined at 9.9 percent was the lowest since October 2012 - the starting point of China's nascent
economic recovery.
The world's largest package delivery company, viewed as an indicator of
economic strength, reported revenue increased 10 percent to $ 17.1 billion
in the first quarter from a year ago, topping analyst
expectations of $ 16.47 billion.
These risks include,
in no particular order, the following: the trends toward more high - definition, on - demand and anytime, anywhere video will not continue to develop at its current pace or will expire; the possibility that our products will not generate sales that are commensurate with our
expectations or that our cost of revenue or operating expenses may exceed our
expectations; the mix of products and services sold
in various geographies and the effect it has on gross margins; delays or decreases
in capital spending
in the cable, satellite, telco, broadcast and media industries; customer concentration and consolidation; the impact of general
economic conditions on our sales and operations; our ability to develop new and enhanced products
in a timely manner and market acceptance of our new or existing products; losses of one or more key customers; risks associated with our international operations; exchange rate fluctuations of the currencies
in which we conduct business; risks associated with our CableOS ™ and VOS ™ product solutions; dependence on market acceptance of various types of broadband services, on the adoption of new broadband technologies and on broadband industry trends; inventory management; the lack of timely availability of parts or raw materials necessary to produce our products; the impact of increases
in the prices of raw materials and oil; the effect of competition, on both revenue and gross margins; difficulties associated with rapid technological changes
in our markets; risks associated with unpredictable sales cycles; our dependence on contract manufacturers and sole or limited source suppliers; and the effect on our business of natural disasters.
In both cases, the statements are intended to send a clear signal to financial - market participants that they should expect interest rates to remain low for quite a while — and this
expectation is then supposed to drive a faster
economic recovery.
The Citi
Economic Surprise Index, a gauge of how much recent economic data have shot above or fallen below expectations, slipped to 21.80 in April 16 from a high o
Economic Surprise Index, a gauge of how much recent
economic data have shot above or fallen below expectations, slipped to 21.80 in April 16 from a high o
economic data have shot above or fallen below
expectations, slipped to 21.80
in April 16 from a high of 84.70.
A wobbly equity market,
expectations for higher interest rates and weaker
economic growth
in the first quarter have inspired some pundits to claim that bear - market risk for stocks...
What I would like to do today is to explain
in some detail the logic underlying this
expectation that
economic conditions will warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
They include upwards revisions
in economic forecasts,
expectation of monetary tightening, rising real and nominal long - term interest rates, fiscal stimulus on a huge scale
in a full employment economy, rising protectionism that should choke off import flows, and tax reform directed at reducing capital outflows and increasing capital inflows.
Investors looking for value need to take a holistic approach that measures a company's ability to deliver
economic earnings to investors and quantifies the
expectations for future cash flows embedded
in its current stock price.
Policymakers thus need to act
in a systematic and consistent manner so that
expectations are formed accurately and
economic behavior can respond consistently with those
expectations.
b) Price to
Economic Book Value measures the growth
expectations embedded
in the prices of the stocks
in sector / industry.
Two decades of «miracle» levels of investment - driven growth, the role of the financial sector
in that growth, and the unrealistic
expectations that Chinese businesses, banks, and government entities had consequently developed, reinforced by sell - side cheerleaders, made it obvious that the interlocking balance sheets that make up the Chinese economy had added what was effectively a highly «speculative» structure onto the way
economic entities financed their operations.
Forward - looking statements may include, among others, statements concerning our projected adjusted income (loss) from operations outlook for 2018, on both a consolidated and segment basis; projected total revenue growth and global medical customer growth, each over year end 2017; projected growth beyond 2018; projected medical care and operating expense ratios and medical cost trends; our projected consolidated adjusted tax rate; future financial or operating performance, including our ability to deliver personalized and innovative solutions for our customers and clients; future growth, business strategy, strategic or operational initiatives;
economic, regulatory or competitive environments, particularly with respect to the pace and extent of change
in these areas; financing or capital deployment plans and amounts available for future deployment; our prospects for growth
in the coming years; the proposed merger (the «Merger») with Express Scripts Holding Company («Express Scripts») and other statements regarding Cigna's future beliefs,
expectations, plans, intentions, financial condition or performance.
One of the most fortunate events
in my life was to study under four brilliant economists at Stanford, who also formed my dissertation committee - Ronald McKinnon, an influential and original scholar
in international economics; Thomas Sargent, a leading «rational
expectations» theorist; John Taylor, also a «rational
expectations» macroeconomist (currently serving
in the Bush administration, and a leading candidate to succeed Alan Greenspan at the Fed, according to the Wall Street Journal), and Robert Hall, who heads the official Recession Dating Committee of the National Bureau of
Economic Research.
The 2018 budget largely evades both options
in a chapter entitled Path to Balance: it's 15 pages thick with handy - dandy charts,
economic assumptions of modest growth, and holds out the
expectation that the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will go ahead and bring further prosperity to Alberta.
Figure 1 shows this value - destroying behavior
in action for GE (GE) by comparing between the amount of money spent buying back shares and the price to
economic book value (PEBV), a measure of the growth
expectations embedded
in the stock price.
Even apart from the desirability of allowing inflation to rise above two percent
in a happy
economic scenario GDP, labor market and inflation
expectations data all make a compelling case against a rate increase.
KKR's
economic net income per share came
in at 42 cents
in the first quarter, ahead of analysts»
expectations for 11 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S.
In the process, the Fed's actions and pronouncements can influence the expectations and confidence of consumers and businesses and, thereby, what they do in the various economic and financial market place
In the process, the Fed's actions and pronouncements can influence the
expectations and confidence of consumers and businesses and, thereby, what they do
in the various economic and financial market place
in the various
economic and financial market places.
China's
economic growth ticked down to 7.7 percent
in the first quarter, falling short of market
expectations and suggesting a tepid rebound for the economy.
This is particularly important because,
in theory, real yields should somewhat track real
economic growth
expectations.
In part, the bond yield curve — the difference between short - term and long - term interest rates — is an indicator of future
economic growth
expectations.
On the prospect of recession, I'm reasonably well - known as one of the only economists who correctly warned
in real - time of oncoming recessions
in October 2000 and again
in November 2007 — both points where the consensus of
economic forecasters indicated no
expectation of oncoming trouble at all.
If anything, my
expectation is that the policies of the incoming administration are more likely to result
in constrained
economic growth rather than expansion.
Expectations for strong U.S. jobs data on Friday have been maintaining a bid for dollars, while timely survey data show that a cooling
in economic growth is afoot, and ECB President Draghi gave dovish - tilting remarks following the central bank's April policy review last week.
Given the importance of the US
economic outlook for Canadian exports and Canada's economy more generally, firms
in the Business Outlook Survey are asked about their
expectations for US growth.
In summary, over 82 percent of respondents either delayed their
expectations of an
economic recovery to 2012 or later, or are unsure.
HOUSTON --(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Although small business owners are slowly proceeding with growth plans
in 2011, 40 percent are now delaying their
expectations of an
economic rebound to the first quarter of 2012 or later, according to the most recent Business Confidence Survey released today by Insperity, Inc. (NYSE: NSP), a leading provider of human resources and business performance solutions to America's best businesses.
Forward - looking statements are based on estimates and assumptions made by BlackBerry
in light of its experience and its perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors that BlackBerry believes are appropriate
in the circumstances, including but not limited to the launch timing and success of products based on the BlackBerry 10 platform, general
economic conditions, product pricing levels and competitive intensity, supply constraints, BlackBerry's
expectations regarding its business, strategy, opportunities and prospects, including its ability to implement meaningful changes to address its business challenges, and BlackBerry's
expectations regarding the cash flow generation of its business.
A wobbly equity market,
expectations for higher interest rates and weaker
economic growth
in the first quarter have inspired some pundits to claim that bear - market risk for stocks has spiked higher
in recent weeks.
The so - called «reflationary trade», while
in large part based on improving
economic dynamics, also owes something to
expectations that the new US -LSB-...]
The S&P 500 is up more than 15 percent
in 2017, boosted by strong corporate earnings,
expectations of a U.S. tax code overhaul and improving global
economic conditions.