Paying too much attention to all the negatives in the economy tends to make
economic forecast too pessimistic.
Not exact matches
Our BlackRock Macro GPS
economic indicator implies consensus gross domestic product
forecasts for the G7 appear
too low, even if the growth outlook remains sluggish.
As usual, I don't place
too much emphasis on this sort of
forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe
economic weakness.
There are
too many variables that result from human beings» behaviour to
forecast future
economic performance with any accuracy.
How do you account in your model for the findings of multiple researchers that, despite all the work undertaken by those forecasters, their
forecasts are
too optimistic (see, for example, Roy Batchelor's «Bias in macro economic forecasts,» McKinsey's «Equity Analysts Are Still Too Bullish» — be sure to check out Exhibit 2, which is absolute shocker — and more recently JP Morgan Asset Management's March 2013 chart in my pos
too optimistic (see, for example, Roy Batchelor's «Bias in macro
economic forecasts,» McKinsey's «Equity Analysts Are Still
Too Bullish» — be sure to check out Exhibit 2, which is absolute shocker — and more recently JP Morgan Asset Management's March 2013 chart in my pos
Too Bullish» — be sure to check out Exhibit 2, which is absolute shocker — and more recently JP Morgan Asset Management's March 2013 chart in my post)?
The recent bleak
economic forecasts are clearly not depressing firms
too much with expansion into new offices and locations a principal priority in the long - term for some 15 % of respondents.
«grew
too fast and could not merge processes from the acquired entities quickly enough to meet our
economic forecasts, which resulted in short - term cash crunches and our ability to attract new capital... (Butler & Hosch) can not continue to function -LSB-.]»