Interest rates and nominal
economic growth rates tend to move in tandem, so their competing effects on «justified» valuations generally cancel out.
Not exact matches
Indeed, history reminds that softer
economic growth (or contraction)
tends to be accompanied by lower interest
rates.
This pattern is consistent with the historic norms: When
economic growth and the central bank policy
rate are both low, the correlation between stocks and bonds
tends to be negative.
Small - and mid-cap equities also are more heavily tilted toward Financials and cyclical sectors, which
tend to do well as
economic growth accelerates and interest
rates rise.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has published very robust research involving more than 140 countries around the world which demonstrates that countries with extreme levels of inequality (1)
tend to experience much slower
rates of
economic growth; and (2) are far more susceptible to the kind of severe financial / banking / credit crisis that America just went through five years ago.
As interest
rates tends to rise in anticipation of stronger
economic growth, assets which are more sensitive to
economic growth (such as high yield debt) can still perform well.
The Fed will
tend to raise
rates to try to slow inflation, and lower
rates when it feels inflation is too low and
economic growth should be stimulated.
Thomas Piketty in an idea as old as Marx suggests that wealth
tends to concentrate in capitalist markets if the
rate of return on capital exceeds
economic growth.