Sign No. 2 - Key
economic indicators turn upward.
We suspect that something has to give with Chart 7; either China's GDP growth picks up, or its leading
economic indicator turns back down.
Not exact matches
And we are not talking just about the recent rise in lipstick sales at Estée Lauder, which is considered by some to be a hot - red
indicator of
economic trouble (at least on slow news days) on the horizon because consumers tend to
turn to less expensive indulgences when losing confidence in the future.
Needless to say, the rise in the «leading
indicators» is not a valid indication of an upturn in my view, apart from the fact that statistically, the leading
indicators are fairly poor predictors of
economic turns anyway.
The stock market — a pretty good leading
indicator of
economic change — is beginning to reflect the
turn to a more growth - supportive environment.
Earnings / Macro Pulse: But if you look at a couple of key
indicators we track: the «nominal surprise index» (this tracks a combination of the Citi US inflation surprise index and the
economic surprise index - giving a view on how the inflation and general
economic data is
turning out vs expectations), and the «earnings revisions
indicator» (this combines earnings revisions ratio and the rate of change in forward earnings).
«Over the last four years we have been following a path of fiscal consolidation, which has led to an economy that has
turned around, and the
economic indicators points to a clear stabilized economy».
NFP is considered a leading
indicator of employment, which in
turn is a leading
indicator of overall
economic health in the U.S. Currently, as the U.S. economy attempts to gain solid footing after the financial debacle of the last few years, NFP holds extreme importance since employment is a major problem right now.