Despite the recent softness in data — the Citi
economic surprise index for the eurozone is now at its lowest since June 2012 — markets remain stubbornly bullish on the euro with overall bets still near record highs as longer - term expectations remain optimistic.
Intra-stock correlation is not sending a tactical buy signal and
the economic surprise index also argues for some wariness.
Earnings / Macro Pulse: But if you look at a couple of key indicators we track: the «nominal surprise index» (this tracks a combination of the Citi US inflation surprise index and
the economic surprise index - giving a view on how the inflation and general economic data is turning out vs expectations), and the «earnings revisions indicator» (this combines earnings revisions ratio and the rate of change in forward earnings).
Not exact matches
Past March, markets will need to digest rising... core inflation and declining [purchase manager
indexes],
economic surprises and (quite possibly) earnings revisions.»
After last Wednesday's (September 18)
surprise Fed announcement on
economic policy (no tapering), all the main stock market immediately
indexes sprinted to fresh multi-year or all - time highs.
Citigroup Inc.'s global
surprise index tipped below zero on Friday for the first time since August, indicating that
economic data in aggregate are missing economist forecasts rather than beating them.
Meanwhile, despite rebounding a bit in March, European
economic surprises have turned negative since January, while a similar emerging market
index has collapsed.
Specifically, the FOMC is opting to retain its easy monetary policies, but undertake no new initiatives at this time, Perhaps the Fed went this more conservative route in view of the somewhat better news out on the
economic front over the past few weeks, notably the generally improving housing metrics, the pickup in June's personal income, and the
surprising uptick in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence
Index for July issued yesterday.
First, U.S.
economic numbers continue to be mixed ---- an
index of
economic surprises is still hovering just above a six - year low ---- although the trend is toward improvement.
A combination of market positioning, such as record net - long euro futures positioning, rising U.S. interest rates, and diverging
economic performances (such as data
surprising indexes), seems to have encouraged the dollar's recent advance, helping our hedged positions.
The Citi Major Economies (G - 10)
Economic Surprise
Index has given up more than half the fall's gains and is on the cusp of turning negative, i.e. more negative than positive
surprises, for the first time since early last fall (see the accompanying chart).
This relationship is even stronger when looking at a global (G - 10)
index of
economic surprises.
In recent months, we've observed one of the most persistent shortfalls from
economic expectations in years, as measured by various «
economic surprise»
indices.