While it was true that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide had been increasing, he said, and had passed 400 parts per million, the dominant
effect of water vapor had helped flatten the greenhouse effect, such that the rise of global surface temperatures had slowed significantly.
Some critics argue that future warming may even dry out he upper atmosphere, tempering the warming
effect of water vapor.
That is because the Arrhenius theory is incomplete and leaves out
the effect of water vapor in the atmosphere.
There is not «one» simple feedback for the atmosphere
the effect of water vapor and convection and albedo from clouds leads to a stabilizing feedback.
Now the 3rd fainter line below the bold line is
the effect of water vapor.
``... underestimating the negative feedback from cloud albedo and overestimating the positive feedback from the greenhouse
effect of water vapor over the tropical Pacific during ENSO is a prevalent problem of climate models.
Why would
the effect of the water vapor dissipate so much with such minimal increases in CO2's share of the atmosphere?
However, the other model simulated a smaller increase of 8 percent, which is close to the unamplified
effect of water vapor capacity in warmer air.
What I am trying to work out in my head is the perturbation
effect of water vapor.
This isn't an argument about how to evaluate
the effect of water vapor — just how to illustrate a point.
Anyway, here are some sites and articles that might help the average reading understand a little more about
the effect of water vapor, solar flares, tilt of the earth, etc. (articles are back about 5 to 8 years).
My confusion wasn't helped by your reference to Arrhenius, who removed
the effect of water vapor to estimate CO2 forcing.
This is because the net
effect of water vapor is less than zero when it comes to warming.
The net
effect of the water vapor (more or less heating) is not determinant and may be either positive or negative depending on all the above.
It seems that climate has responded to the increased forcing due to the greenhouse
effect of water vapor and CO2 (+ other GHGs) with the result that the solar forcing is reduced to a level so that the 0.75 C / Wm ^ -2 was maintained.
WRT water vapor amplification, I suspect that the basic (radiative only) amplifying
effect of water vapor, which is something less than a factor of 2 over the CO2 - only effect of ~ 1.2 C, IIRC, will be close to the same across a range of average surface temperatures.
«By comparing the response of clouds and water vapor to ENSO forcing in nature with that in AMIP simulations by some leading climate models, an earlier evaluation of tropical cloud and water vapor feedbacks has revealed two common biases in the models: (1) an underestimate of the strength of the negative cloud albedo feedback and (2) an overestimate of the positive feedback from the greenhouse
effect of water vapor.
Another process knows as a «runaway greenhouse» occurs due to the increased greenhouse
effect of water vapor in the lower atmosphere, which further drives evaporation and more warming.
«Water evaporation and condensation processes as well as the strong greenhouse
effect of water vapor and clouds decisively influence the energy balance of the atmosphere and the entire planet,» says Matthias Schneider from the KIT Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK).
But hot water vapor in the atmosphere of brown dwarfs can not be easily seen from Earth's surface, due to the absorbing
effects of water vapor in our own atmosphere.
This sensitivity estimate is not the last word on the subject, because of uncertainties in the approximate formulae used to compute the terms in the energy balance, and neglect of possible
effects of water vapor feedback on the surface budget.
Convection cells arising from such tomfoolerly only mix the lower troposphere because without the bouyant
effects of water vapor, no heat transfer to the stratosphere can occurr.
Then they go on to explain
the effects of water vapor and clouds but with the most incredibly shallow and frankly bizarre propaganda style, leaving out the details on what else the water cycle does.
The average listener, not familiar with relative greenhouse
effects of water vapor and CO2, would probably think that the first part of the statement «all of the absorption of IR....»
Instruments in space tell us how much OLR through clear skies varies with surface temperature, i.e. the combined
effects of water vapor and lapse rate feedback.
Because of the GHG effect, one can't separate
the effects of water vapor concentration, which also has an Arrhenius law, aka Clausius - Clapeyron.
Since water vapor is such a powerful greenhouse gas, any increase in temperature in this region of the atmosphere should be largely a result of
the effects of water vapor (IPCC Working Group 1 Assessment Report 4, Chapter 3, «Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change», Figure 3.21, page 275).
Not exact matches
Either one
of those aircraft
effects can drop the air temperature by more than 35 degrees Fahrenheit, flash - freezing the
water vapor.
So this
effect could either be the result
of natural variability in Earth's climate, or yet another
effect of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases like
water vapor trapping more heat and thus warming sea - surface temperatures.
This
effect makes the atmosphere act somewhat like a blanket that becomes thicker when amounts
of water vapor, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, increase.
The theory
of dangerous climate change is based not just on carbon dioxide warming but on positive and negative feedback
effects from
water vapor and phenomena such as clouds and airborne aerosols from coal burning.
That limits the amount
of water evaporated from the oceans and, as a result, the greenhouse
effect by
water vapor.
The research, published yesterday in Nature Climate Change, outlines a counterintuitive side
effect of climate change: As higher temperatures drive plants and trees into areas now inhospitable to them, their new distribution speeds up temperature rise via natural processes such as releases
of heat - trapping
water vapor into the air.
While plants also absorb carbon from the air, the team found that the warming power
of water vapor and the albedo
effect in particular far outweigh this cooling factor.
«There's a finite amount
of water vapor in the stratosphere,» Dessler says, «so it can't cancel out the
effects of CO2 forever.»
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding
of the importance
of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea ice and attendant decreases in albedo,
effects of the deposition
of soot and dust on snow and ice decreasing albedo, and a recognition
of the importance
of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
When the CLIMAP data proved to be wrong, and was replaced by more reliable estimates showing a substantial tropical surface temperature drop, Lindzen had to abandon his then - current model and move on to other forms
of mischief (first the «cumulus drying» negative
water vapor feedback mechanism, since abandoned, and now the «Iris»
effect cloud feedback mechanism).
Current state -
of - the - art climate models predict that increasing
water vapor concentrations in warmer air will amplify the greenhouse
effect created by anthropogenic greenhouse gases while maintaining nearly constant relative humidity.
water vapor, which causes about 36 — 70 percent
of the greenhouse
effect on Earth.
As the temperature rises,
water vapor evaporates at a higher rate, raising the
water vapor content
of the atmosphere, further amplifying the the increased greenhouse
effect of the additional carbon dioxide.
... The Earth's atmospheric methane concentration has increased by about 150 % since 1750, and it accounts for 20 %
of the total radiative forcing from all
of the long - lived and globally mixed greenhouse gases (these gases don't include
water vapor which is by far the largest component
of the greenhouse
effect).
The forcing due to reduced amounts
of long lived GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O) was -3 ± 0.5 W / m2, with the indirect
effects of CH4 on tropospheric ozone and stratospheric
water vapor included (fig.
For starters, one simply can not equate the positive feedback
effect of melting ice (both reduced albedo and increased
water vapor) from that
of leaving maximum ice to that
of minimum ice where the climate is now (and is during every interglacial period).
There is a clear impact on global temperature, too, though the mechanisms are complex: heat released from the oceans; increases in
water vapor, which enhance the greenhouse
effect, and redistributions
of clouds.
Greenhouse
effect from
water vapor is filtered out, showing the contributions
of other greenhouse gases (Evans 2006).
However, this climate sensitivity includes only the
effects of fast feedbacks
of the climate system, such as
water vapor, clouds, aerosols, and sea ice.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition
of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the
effect of CO2 +
water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
For example, they predicted the expansion
of the Hadley cells, the poleward movement
of storm tracks, the rising
of the tropopause, the rising
of the effective radiating altitude, the circulation
of aerosols in the atmosphere, the modelling
of the transmission
of radiation through the atmosphere, the clear sky super greenhouse
effect that results from increased
water vapor in the tropics, the near constancy
of relative humidity, and polar amplification, the cooling
of the stratosphere while the troposphere warmed.
A person who understands the scientific process wouldn't be able to state that
water vapor is a greater percentage
of the greenhouse
effect and think that no climate scientist had thought
of this before.
Water vapor amplifies the
effect of CO2.