With a large enough sample, a simple comparison of outcomes between winners and losers would identify the causal
effect of winning the lottery.
The result is the «intent - to - treat»
effect of winning a lottery; it is an intent because students offered a place in their first - choice school did not always take it (for example, they may have moved out of the district).
Not exact matches
When I examine the
effect of winning a school
lottery separately at different points in time after the
lotteries were conducted, however, I find larger
effects in later years.
Among high - risk middle - school students, I find no
effect of winning a school - choice
lottery on the average number
of felony arrests.
I study the
effects of winning a seat at a preferred school in the 2002
lotteries on student outcomes through 2009, seven years after the
lotteries were conducted.
One can therefore obtain a rough estimate
of the
effect of actually attending the first - choice school (as a result
of winning the
lottery) by doubling the results presented below.
Based on a back -
of - the - envelope calculation
of the relationship between enrollment and criminal activity in my sample, I estimate that the
effects of winning a school
lottery on enrollment could potentially explain about 45 percent
of the impact on criminal activity in the high school sample, but only about 10 percent in the middle school sample.
More than a dozen published analyses
of random - assignment experiments reveal the
effects of winning a voucher in a
lottery on educational achievement and attainment.
Deutsch (2012) also found that the estimated
effect of winning an admission
lottery in Chicago was similar to that predicted by non-experimental methods.
The
Effect of Winning a First - choice School Entry
Lottery on Student Performance: Evidence from a Natural Experiment1
But the study authors said,
winning the admission
lottery had «no
effect on college readiness in math or other types
of high school diplomas that students received.»