This would mean that there would be a
single effective heat capacity for the climate system, and a single effective time constant for the system as well.
The study also contains a cautionary note:
if effective heat capacity should prove to be less than estimated in the study, or the carbon dioxide degassing timescale proved longer, it could result in temperature overshoots in which initial temperature decreases are reversed when carbon dioxide re-accumulates in the atmosphere.
But then
the effective heat capacity, the surface temperature, depends on the rate of mixing of the ocean water and I have presented evidence from a number of different ways that models tend to be too diffusive because of numerical reasons and coarse resolution and wave parameter rise, motions in the ocean.
Typically that is about 200 years after the CO2 reaches 2 times its initial concentration, although it varies from model to model depending on
the effective heat capacity of the Earth's surface in the model.
The smaller
the effective heat capacity, the more rapidly will the model reach equilibrium, and the closer TCR will be to ECS.
I agree that the the samller
the effective heat capacity, the more rapidly will the model reach equilibrium, but I do not understand how that lead to conclude «and the closer TCR will be to ECS».
As an aside, ECS can not be less than TCR by virtue of the definitions of the terms, and will only equal TCR if
the effective heat capacity of the Earth's surface closely approximates to zero.
The difference
the effective heat capacity of the system makes is that the larger the capacity, the more heat must be pumped into the ocean for the same rise in GMST.
Gradually, the anomaly spreads from the mixed - layer to the deeper layers of the ocean, thereby increasing
the effective heat capacity of the oceans.
The increase of
effective heat capacity, in turn, results in the reduction of the rate of increase in surface temperature, reducing and delaying the warming as shown by Hoffert et al (1980) and Hansen et al. (1984).»
The temperature response then depends on
your effective heat capacity.
The effective heat capacity determined in this way is equivalent to the heat capacity of 106 m of ocean water or, for ocean fractional area 0.71, the top 150 m of the world ocean.
This effective heat capacity is thus comparable to the heat capacity of the ocean mixed layer.»
«The present analysis indicates that
the effective heat capacity of the world ocean pertinent to climate change on this multidecadal scale may be taken as 14 + / - 6 W yr m - 2 K - 1.
That sort of works, but it leads to a temperature drop rate that's too low at night because
the effective heat capacity is too high.