If analysis of historical data on GHG rise and net
effects of aerosols establishes beta = 0.5, then TCR = 1.2 C. But, beta is uncertain and might be as low as 0.4, in which case TCR = 1.3 C. But, TCR (1 + beta) = 1.8 C and only has uncertainty introduced by uncertainty in the historical GMST and CO2 level rise.
Not exact matches
In the new work, published in Geophysical Research Letters late last month, researchers modified an
established climate model to gauge the
effects of varying
aerosol amount and size.
In this case, the vast preponderance
of evidence and theory (such as long
established basic physics) is on the side
of AGW, so there would have to be a serious paradigm shift based on some new physics, a cooling trend (with increasing GHG levels and decreasing
aerosol effect), and that they had failed to detect the extreme increase in solar irradiance to dislodge AGW theory.