The largest uncertainty in that comparison comes from the estimated
effects of aerosols in the atmosphere, which can variously shade Earth or warm it.
Fan went to China in 2008 for an ARM Mobile Facility field campaign studying the climatic
effects of aerosols in that country's fast - changing atmosphere.
This was our lab's first attempt to incorporate the indirect
effects of aerosols in a climate model.
Some models include volcanic effects by simply perturbing the incoming shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, while others simulate explicitly the radiative
effects of the aerosols in the stratosphere.
It seems that at least the regional
effect of aerosols in S.E. - Asia is warming, not cooling... Thus any reduction there would have a cooling effect.
«The Radiative
Effect of Aerosols in the Earth's Atmosphere.»
Not exact matches
Besides knowing a lot more about the transport
of volcanic
aerosols in the atmosphere, modern researchers had communications lines and satellites so that news
of an eruption could be relayed quickly and the
effects noted as they unfolded.
The
effect also illustrates one proposal for so - called geoengineering — the deliberate, large - scale manipulation
of the planetary environment — that would use various means to create such sulfuric acid
aerosols in the stratosphere to reflect sunlight and thereby hopefully forestall catastrophic climate change.
In this paper, UCR and Forest Service researchers teamed up to explore a previously unstudied aspect
of nitrogen saturation: its
effect on the gases and
aerosols released during burning
of forest fuels from an area experiencing nitrogen saturation.
Mission leaders were relieved and eager to begin their studies
of cloud and haze
effects, which «constitute the largest uncertainties
in our models
of future climate — that's no exaggeration,» says Jens Redemann, an atmospheric scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center
in Mountain View, California, and the principal investigator for ObseRvations
of Aerosols above CLouds and their IntEractionS (ORACLES).
«We've shown that under clean and humid conditions, like those that exist over the ocean and some land
in the tropics, tiny
aerosols have a big impact on weather and climate and can intensify storms a great deal,» said Fan, an expert on the
effects of pollution on storms and weather.
Several symposia have a local focus, including sessions on ecology and education
in San Diego's Mission Bay Park and the causes and
effects of aerosol particles
in San Diego's atmosphere.
Indeed, the reduction
in the emission
of precursors to polluting particles (sulphur dioxide) would diminish the concealing
effects of Chinese
aerosols, and would speed up warming, unless this
effect were to be compensated elsewhere, for instance by significantly reducing long - life greenhouse gas emissions and «black carbon.»
Forster's chapter also reports on another important uncertainty: the cooling
effect of smoke and other
aerosols, which some argued almost negated the warming
effect of greenhouse gases
in the short term.
Similar scandals erupted over the
effects of scores
of industrial applications, ranging from sulfur dioxide and acid rain, to certain
aerosols and the hole
in the ozone layer, to leaded gas and cognitive impairment, to the granddaddy
of them all, fossil fuels and global climate change.
This unique orbit path will allow the CATS instrument to observe locations at different times
of day and allow scientists to study day - to - night changes
in cloud and
aerosol effects from space.
«There is a link between the chemistry that goes on
in this type
of air motion and the subsequent
effects on the trace gases and
aerosols in the atmosphere that ultimately impact climate.»
The study also showed that the
effect was much larger on a regional scale, counteracting possibly up to 30 %
of warming
in more rural, forested areas where anthropogenic emissions
of aerosols were much lower
in comparison to the natural
aerosols.
Spanish and Portuguese researchers have analysed the composition and radiative
effect of desert
aerosols during two episodes which simultaneously affected Badajoz (Spain) and Évora (Portugal)
in August 2012.
However, he says, «
Aerosol effects on climate are one
of the main uncertainties
in climate models.
However, the expert indicates that it is important to bear
in mind that the
effects of each type
of aerosol are different due to their «varying composition, size and properties,» she concludes.
Among the most uncertain elements
in climate models are the
effects of aerosols and their interactions with clouds — just the things involved
in albedo modification — she says.
In the new work, published in Geophysical Research Letters late last month, researchers modified an established climate model to gauge the effects of varying aerosol amount and siz
In the new work, published
in Geophysical Research Letters late last month, researchers modified an established climate model to gauge the effects of varying aerosol amount and siz
in Geophysical Research Letters late last month, researchers modified an established climate model to gauge the
effects of varying
aerosol amount and size.
A 2013 computer simulation
of this process found increased
aerosols alone did result
in more lightning due to ice crystal collisions, although at very large
aerosol volumes the
effect was muted.
The cooling
effect of aerosols can partly offset global warming on a short - term basis, but many are made
of organic material that comes from sources that scientists don't fully understand, said Joost de Gouw, a research physicist at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory
in Boulder, Colo., who is unaffiliated with the studies.
But the health
effects of many
aerosols in smog are so great that even
in the poor world, they are already cutting emissions.»
The observed amount
of warming thus far has been less than this, because part
of the excess energy is stored
in the oceans (amounting to ~ 0.5 °C), and the remainder (~ 1.3 °C) has been masked by the cooling
effect of anthropogenic
aerosols.
The temperature change
in any particular region will
in fact be a combination
of radiation - related changes (through greenhouse gases,
aerosols, ozone and the like) and dynamical
effects.
My main problem with that study is that the weather models don't use any forcings at all — no changes
in ozone, CO2, volcanos,
aerosols, solar etc. — and so while some
of the
effects of the forcings might be captured (since the weather models assimilate satellite data etc.), there is no reason to think that they get all
of the signal — particularly for near surface
effects (tropospheric ozone for instance).
Now if this was the 1980s they might have had a point, but the fact that
aerosols are an important climate forcing, have a net cooling
effect on climate and,
in part, arise from the same industrial activities that produce greenhouse gases, has been part
of mainstream science for 30 years.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding
of the importance
of water vapor feedback, sulfate
aerosols, black carbon
aerosols, more rapid than expected declines
in sea ice and attendant decreases
in albedo,
effects of the deposition
of soot and dust on snow and ice decreasing albedo, and a recognition
of the importance
of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
Sally, who was nominated by Dr. Beat Schmid, Associate Director, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, was honored for her exceptional contribution
in the field
of atmospheric science, particularly
in her efforts to improve understanding
of the radiative
effect of clouds and
aerosols on the Earth's atmosphere and their representation
in climate models.
The net
effect of human - generated
aerosols is more complicated and regionally variable — for example,
in contrast to the local warming
effect of the Asian Brown Cloud, global shipping produces large amounts
of cooling reflective sulphate
aerosols: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/08/990820022710.htm
For sulphate
aerosols, current models probably overestimate their influence, as there is no measurable
effect of the large (over 60 %) reduction
in SO2 emissions
in Europe at the places where the largest influence should be visible, according to the models.
One
of the major parameters was the safety
of these agents
in the respiratory airways and lung parenchyma, since several
of these agents are known to cause adverse
effects.23 The main adverse
effects observed were cough, transient fever and transient decrease
in the respiratory functions after the
aerosol administration.8, 19, 20 Moreover; it has been observed that excessive deposition
of these agents
in one site
of the respiratory system can induce non-specific side
effects in the form
of pulmonary edema as observed with many other drugs.16 These side
effects were milder when a premedication with bronchodilators and inhaled corticosteroids were administered.8, 19, 20 Until now no long term trial (> 9 months) has been performed since all patients included
in previous studies had stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
Fascinatingly, the book from the mid-70s said that there was one climate scientist — Wally Broecker - who predicted that the greenhouse warming was on the verge
of overtaking the
aerosol cooling
effects and that by the year 2000 the planet would be warmer than it had been
in 1000 years.
The cooling
effect from this
aerosol forcing is thought to be about half that
of greenhouse gases, but
in the opposing (cooling) direction.
A satellite that was launched
in 2011 was to be the first to make accurate measurements
of this global
aerosol effect, but it crashed into the ocean shortly after lift off.
That's far from the worst flaw
in his calculation, since his two biggest blunders are the neglect
of the radiative cooling due to sulfate
aerosols (known to be a critical factor
in the period
in question) and his neglect
of the many links
in the chain
of physical
effects needed to translate a top
of atmosphere radiative imbalance to a change
in net surface energy flux imbalance.
The top priorities should be reducing uncertainties
in climate sensitivity, getting a better understanding
of the
effect of climate change on atmospheric circulation (critical for understanding
of regional climate change, changes
in extremes) and reducing uncertainties
in radiative forcing — particularly those associated with
aerosols.
Paraphrasing the text
in the post,
aerosols that are input into the atmosphere, due to their spatial heterogeneity, also cause regions
of heating or cooling that the atmosphere can respond to by changing its circulation — and that might have further climate
effects in places far away from where the
aerosols are input.
Only a few estimates account for uncertainty
in forcings other than from
aerosols (e.g., Gregory et al., 2002a; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003); some other studies perform some sensitivity testing to assess the
effect of forcing uncertainty not accounted for, for example,
in natural forcing (e.g., Forest et al., 2006; see Table 9.1 for an overview).
The total
of -0.7 W / m ^ 2 is the same as the best observational (satellite) total
aerosol adjusted forcing estimate given
in the leaked Second Order Draft
of AR5 WG1, which includes cloud lifetime (2nd indirect) and other
effects.
Spatial distributions and seasonal cycles
of aerosol climate
effects in India seen
in a global climate -
aerosol model.
In addressing the question
of the
effects of greenhouse gases on Atlantic tropical storms, it might clarify (and even partially defuse) the controversy to lump internal variability together with other forced responses (particularly
aerosols), rather than to focus on internal variability vs the total forced response.
Earth's measured energy imbalance has been used to infer the climate forcing by
aerosols, with two independent analyses yielding a forcing
in the past decade
of about − 1.5 W / m2 [64], [72], including the direct
aerosol forcing and indirect
effects via induced cloud changes.
The
effects of aerosol injections are at least somewhat known, since volcanic eruptions produce
aerosols naturally and have produced cooling
in the past.
Scenes allude to the band's gloomy inclinations, bass - driven melodies and innovative use
of audio
effects (one band member uses an
aerosol spray can to form a beat), but the story
of Joy Division is an afterthought
in the movie, replaced instead by a much more routine study
of depression and the
effects of sudden success and touring on a marriage.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossibl
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic
aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences
in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossibl
in partition
of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the
effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
You can,
of course, argue that other factors were at work
in the early 20th century warming phase, but if you want to argue that the mid-century cooling was largely due to the neutralizing
effect of industrial
aerosol pollutants, then you can not, as did Rodgers, claim that any part
of that earlier warmup was due to the burning
of fossil fuels.