The largest uncertainty in that comparison comes from the estimated
effects of aerosols in the atmosphere, which can variously shade Earth or warm it.
Not exact matches
Besides knowing a lot more about the transport
of volcanic
aerosols in the
atmosphere, modern researchers had communications lines and satellites so that news
of an eruption could be relayed quickly and the
effects noted as they unfolded.
Several symposia have a local focus, including sessions on ecology and education
in San Diego's Mission Bay Park and the causes and
effects of aerosol particles
in San Diego's
atmosphere.
«There is a link between the chemistry that goes on
in this type
of air motion and the subsequent
effects on the trace gases and
aerosols in the
atmosphere that ultimately impact climate.»
Sally, who was nominated by Dr. Beat Schmid, Associate Director, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, was honored for her exceptional contribution
in the field
of atmospheric science, particularly
in her efforts to improve understanding
of the radiative
effect of clouds and
aerosols on the Earth's
atmosphere and their representation
in climate models.
That's far from the worst flaw
in his calculation, since his two biggest blunders are the neglect
of the radiative cooling due to sulfate
aerosols (known to be a critical factor
in the period
in question) and his neglect
of the many links
in the chain
of physical
effects needed to translate a top
of atmosphere radiative imbalance to a change
in net surface energy flux imbalance.
Paraphrasing the text
in the post,
aerosols that are input into the
atmosphere, due to their spatial heterogeneity, also cause regions
of heating or cooling that the
atmosphere can respond to by changing its circulation — and that might have further climate
effects in places far away from where the
aerosols are input.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossibl
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic
aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences
in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossibl
in partition
of various forcings into the oceans /
atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the
effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
For example, they predicted the expansion
of the Hadley cells, the poleward movement
of storm tracks, the rising
of the tropopause, the rising
of the effective radiating altitude, the circulation
of aerosols in the
atmosphere, the modelling
of the transmission
of radiation through the
atmosphere, the clear sky super greenhouse
effect that results from increased water vapor
in the tropics, the near constancy
of relative humidity, and polar amplification, the cooling
of the stratosphere while the troposphere warmed.
This is a peer reviewed paper by respected scientists who are saying that
aerosol forcing means that the majority
of the warming caused by existing co2 emission has effectively been masked thus far, and that as
aerosols remain
in the
atmosphere for far shorter a duration
of time than co2, we will have already most likely crossed the 2 degree threshold that the G8 politicians have been discussing this week once the cooling
effect of aerosols dissipate.
The
effect of both CO2 and
aerosols by mass
in the
atmosphere are not linear and do not follow each other
in lock step, hence to claim that
aerosols would have a cancelling
effect no matter what the rate
of fossil fuel combustion would be a false assumption.
From sheer thermal inertia
of the oceans, but also because if you close down all coal power stations etc.,
aerosol pollution
in the
atmosphere, which has a sizeable cooling
effect, will go way down, while CO2 stays high.
I'm pretty sure you can get the grey version
of that into a strat - cooling / trop - warming situation if you pick the strat absorbers right, but Andy is certainly right that non-grey
effects play a crucial role
in explaining quantitatively what is going on
in the real
atmosphere (that's connected with the non-grey explanation for the anomalously cold tropopause which I have
in Chapter 4, and also with the reason that
aerosols do not produce stratospheric cooling, and everything depends a lot on what level you are looking at).
In their calculations, the direct tropo - spheric
aerosol effect does not play a large net role, because the moderately absorbing
aerosol assumption leads to an offset between its sunlight reflecting and absorbing properties insofar as the top
of the
atmosphere irradiance change is concerned.
Not it is not similar because one event injected sulfate
aerosols into the stratosphere where they stayed for years and affected the globe while the other («human particulates and
aerosol pollution») were produced
in the troposphere and have a residency time
in the
atmosphere of about 4 days and had only a regional
effect.
«The Radiative
Effect of Aerosols in the Earth's
Atmosphere.»
These were intriguing, as well as highly speculative: first the possibility
of deliberately using additional targeted
aerosol injection to stimulate coagulation
of the particles
in the volcanic
aerosol; mitigating its
effects by causing the particles to drop out
of the
atmosphere more swiftly.
Some models include volcanic
effects by simply perturbing the incoming shortwave radiation at the top
of the
atmosphere, while others simulate explicitly the radiative
effects of the
aerosols in the stratosphere.
Constraining the influence
of natural variability to improve estimates
of global
aerosol indirect
effects in a nudged version
of the Community
Atmosphere Model 5.
Contrary to what Peter Taylor says
in his book, it is well known that sulphate
aerosols created
in the
atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion were a major influence on the small cooling trend from 1940, although uncertainties remain over the scale
of the
effect.
As the emission
of aerosols in the 1940s onwards tended to be into a cleaner
atmosphere they may have had a larger
effect.
Associated with human greenhouse gas production is the release
of fine particle known as
aerosols which have a temporary cooling
effect (they last
in the
atmosphere less than a week).
One hears
of dire predictions
of sea - level rises which don't seem to be eventuating,
of stasis
in global temperatures that weren't predicted,
of claimed ad - hoc appeals to
aerosol effects, etc., and that's without going into the general
atmosphere of hostility to people like me who genuinely think the case for harmful AGW
effects looks shaky.
For instance, researchers still don't completely understand the role
of aerosols in the
atmosphere, the variable
effects of clouds at different heights, and the influence
of feedback mechanisms such as the changing reflectivity
of the Earth's surface and the release
of gases from permafrost or deep seabeds.
As we (and a number
of other mainstream news outlets) reported, Robert Kaufmann and colleagues analysed the impact
of growing coal use, particularly
in China, and the cooling
effect of the sulphate
aerosol particles emitted into the
atmosphere.
Aerosols from volcanic eruptions do have a cooling
effect once they reach the stratosphere but the
effect of high wind speed
in the upper
atmosphere would rapidly disperse these, and any local
effects would be very slight.
In particular, increases in the number of small particles (called aerosols) in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the upper troposphere and stratosphere.fr2], fr
In particular, increases
in the number of small particles (called aerosols) in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the upper troposphere and stratosphere.fr2], fr
in the number
of small particles (called
aerosols)
in the atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling of the upper troposphere and stratosphere.fr2], fr
in the
atmosphere regionally offset and mask the greenhouse
effect, and stratospheric ozone depletion contributes to cooling
of the upper troposphere and stratosphere.fr2], fr3]
Fan went to China
in 2008 for an ARM Mobile Facility field campaign studying the climatic
effects of aerosols in that country's fast - changing
atmosphere.
The study researches the
effects of microbial control on sea spray
aerosol, along with the blooms included within,
in an isolated facility that simulates the
atmosphere of the ocean with 3,400 gallons
of seawater.
Dlugach, Z.M., M.I. Mishchenko, and A.V. Morozhenko, 2002: The
effect of the shape
of dust
aerosol particles
in the Martian
atmosphere on the particle parameters.
So far, the large - scale experiment has so far validated the basic GCR cloud nucleation mechanism
in the presence
of certain naturally occurring
aerosols, but the scientists have cautioned that more work will need to be done to see if this
effect is really confirmed
in our
atmosphere.
But
in vitro values become,
in effect, theoretical calculations when they're applied by GCMs to model vastly greater columns
of atmosphere, where cloud droplets and ice crystals, various
aerosols and particulates — not to mention highly variable water vapor — appear
in situ.
When partnered with cloud remote sensing observations the radiation measurements and retrievals allow the characterization
of cloud and
aerosol radiative
effects at the surface, which is essential
in order to quantify the amount
of radiative energy available at the surface to interact with heating the air, evaporating water, and interacting with clouds and greenhouse gasses
in the
atmosphere.
There, he co-authored an article for Science arguing that the warming
effect caused by rising amounts
of carbon - dioxide
in the
atmosphere would be swamped by the cooling
effect caused by
aerosol pollution like dust and smoke.
They are referring to a 1971 article written by climatologist Stephen Schneider,
in which he did, indeed, make that prediction; however, as he himself now acknowledges, new evidence soon followed its publication that suggested that 1) the cooling impact
of aerosols was not nearly as high as originally estimated and 2) there were many other gases
in the
atmosphere, including methane, CFCs and ozone, that had the same warming
effect as carbon dioxide.
Sulfur dioxide is an
aerosol that forms droplets
of sulphuric acid
in the high
atmosphere and reflects solar energy back into space, so these two volcanic eruptions had some short - to medium - term
effects.
Dlugach, Z.M., and M.I. Mishchenko, 2005: The
effect of aerosol shape
in retrieving optical properties
of cloud particles
in the planetary
atmospheres from the photopolarimetric data Jupiter.
S. Ichtiaque Rasool and Stephen Schneider
of NASA, for example, modelled the
effects of pollution
in the form
of aerosols and sulphur emissions
in the
atmosphere and discovered that a significant increase
of such pollution could - possibly - lead to a cooling episode.
As explained
in Chapter Two, this was largely a result
of dust and
aerosols sent by humans (and volcanoes) into the
atmosphere, which temporarily overwhelmed the already well - understood warming
effect from greenhouse gases.
The forcing aspect
of the indirect
effect at the top
of the
atmosphere is discussed
in Chapter 2, while the processes that involve feedbacks or interactions, like the «cloud lifetime
effect» [6], the «semi-direct
effect» and
aerosol impacts on the large - scale circulation, convection, the biosphere through nutrient supply and the carbon cycle, are discussed here.
Although previous research had seemed to indicate that
aerosols could create a general cooling
effect in the
atmosphere — thus helping mitigate the
effect of global warming — a new study has revealed that they may
in fact warm it just as much as greenhouse gases.
The new study, published
in Nature Geoscience, identified a negative feedback loop
in which higher temperatures lead to an increase
in concentrations
of natural
aerosols that have a cooling
effect on the
atmosphere.
The direct and indirect radiative
effects of aerosols suspended
in the
atmosphere above clouds (ACA) are a highly uncertain component
of both regional and global climate.
Topics that I work on or plan to work
in the future include studies of: + missing aerosol species and sources, such as the primary oceanic aerosols and their importance on the remote marine atmosphere, the in - cloud and aerosol water aqueous formation of organic aerosols that can lead to brown carbon formation, the primary terrestrial biological particles, and the organic nitrogen + missing aerosol parameterizations, such as the effect of aerosol mixing on cloud condensation nuclei and aerosol absorption, the semi-volatility of primary organic aerosols, the importance of in - canopy processes on natural terrestrial aerosol and aerosol precursor sources, and the mineral dust iron solubility and bioavailability + the change of aerosol burden and its spatiotemporal distribution, especially with regard to its role and importance on gas - phase chemistry via photolysis rates changes and heterogeneous reactions in the atmosphere, as well as their effect on key gas - phase species like ozone + the physical and optical properties of aerosols, which affect aerosol transport, lifetime, and light scattering and absorption, with the latter being very sensitive to the vertical distribution of absorbing aerosols + aerosol - cloud interactions, which include cloud activation, the aerosol indirect effect and the impact of clouds on aerosol removal + changes on climate and feedbacks related with all these topics In order to understand the climate system as a whole, improve the aerosol representation in the GISS ModelE2 and contribute to future IPCC climate change assessments and CMIP activities, I am also interested in understanding the importance of natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climat
in the future include studies
of: + missing
aerosol species and sources, such as the primary oceanic
aerosols and their importance on the remote marine
atmosphere, the
in - cloud and aerosol water aqueous formation of organic aerosols that can lead to brown carbon formation, the primary terrestrial biological particles, and the organic nitrogen + missing aerosol parameterizations, such as the effect of aerosol mixing on cloud condensation nuclei and aerosol absorption, the semi-volatility of primary organic aerosols, the importance of in - canopy processes on natural terrestrial aerosol and aerosol precursor sources, and the mineral dust iron solubility and bioavailability + the change of aerosol burden and its spatiotemporal distribution, especially with regard to its role and importance on gas - phase chemistry via photolysis rates changes and heterogeneous reactions in the atmosphere, as well as their effect on key gas - phase species like ozone + the physical and optical properties of aerosols, which affect aerosol transport, lifetime, and light scattering and absorption, with the latter being very sensitive to the vertical distribution of absorbing aerosols + aerosol - cloud interactions, which include cloud activation, the aerosol indirect effect and the impact of clouds on aerosol removal + changes on climate and feedbacks related with all these topics In order to understand the climate system as a whole, improve the aerosol representation in the GISS ModelE2 and contribute to future IPCC climate change assessments and CMIP activities, I am also interested in understanding the importance of natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climat
in - cloud and
aerosol water aqueous formation
of organic
aerosols that can lead to brown carbon formation, the primary terrestrial biological particles, and the organic nitrogen + missing
aerosol parameterizations, such as the
effect of aerosol mixing on cloud condensation nuclei and
aerosol absorption, the semi-volatility
of primary organic
aerosols, the importance
of in - canopy processes on natural terrestrial aerosol and aerosol precursor sources, and the mineral dust iron solubility and bioavailability + the change of aerosol burden and its spatiotemporal distribution, especially with regard to its role and importance on gas - phase chemistry via photolysis rates changes and heterogeneous reactions in the atmosphere, as well as their effect on key gas - phase species like ozone + the physical and optical properties of aerosols, which affect aerosol transport, lifetime, and light scattering and absorption, with the latter being very sensitive to the vertical distribution of absorbing aerosols + aerosol - cloud interactions, which include cloud activation, the aerosol indirect effect and the impact of clouds on aerosol removal + changes on climate and feedbacks related with all these topics In order to understand the climate system as a whole, improve the aerosol representation in the GISS ModelE2 and contribute to future IPCC climate change assessments and CMIP activities, I am also interested in understanding the importance of natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climat
in - canopy processes on natural terrestrial
aerosol and
aerosol precursor sources, and the mineral dust iron solubility and bioavailability + the change
of aerosol burden and its spatiotemporal distribution, especially with regard to its role and importance on gas - phase chemistry via photolysis rates changes and heterogeneous reactions
in the atmosphere, as well as their effect on key gas - phase species like ozone + the physical and optical properties of aerosols, which affect aerosol transport, lifetime, and light scattering and absorption, with the latter being very sensitive to the vertical distribution of absorbing aerosols + aerosol - cloud interactions, which include cloud activation, the aerosol indirect effect and the impact of clouds on aerosol removal + changes on climate and feedbacks related with all these topics In order to understand the climate system as a whole, improve the aerosol representation in the GISS ModelE2 and contribute to future IPCC climate change assessments and CMIP activities, I am also interested in understanding the importance of natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climat
in the
atmosphere, as well as their
effect on key gas - phase species like ozone + the physical and optical properties
of aerosols, which affect
aerosol transport, lifetime, and light scattering and absorption, with the latter being very sensitive to the vertical distribution
of absorbing
aerosols +
aerosol - cloud interactions, which include cloud activation, the
aerosol indirect
effect and the impact
of clouds on
aerosol removal + changes on climate and feedbacks related with all these topics
In order to understand the climate system as a whole, improve the aerosol representation in the GISS ModelE2 and contribute to future IPCC climate change assessments and CMIP activities, I am also interested in understanding the importance of natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climat
In order to understand the climate system as a whole, improve the
aerosol representation
in the GISS ModelE2 and contribute to future IPCC climate change assessments and CMIP activities, I am also interested in understanding the importance of natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climat
in the GISS ModelE2 and contribute to future IPCC climate change assessments and CMIP activities, I am also interested
in understanding the importance of natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climat
in understanding the importance
of natural and anthropogenic
aerosol changes
in the atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climat
in the
atmosphere on the terrestrial biosphere, the ocean and climate.