This section assesses (1) the impact of meteorological (climatic) factors like wind, temperature and precipitation on the natural aerosol burden and (2) possible
effects of aerosols on climate parameters and biogeochemistry.
These agents include tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, all of the non-sulphate aerosols, the indirect
effects of aerosols on cloud albedo and lifetime, the effects of land use and solar variability.
Other types of forcing that vary across the ensemble include solar variability, the indirect
effects of aerosols on clouds and the effects of land use change on land surface albedo and other land surface properties (Table 10.1).
effects of aerosols on cloud properties (including cloud fraction, cloud microphysical parameters, and precipitation efficiency), which may modify the hydrological cycle without significant radiative impacts;
Considering the surface radiative forcing may enable quantification of
the effects of aerosols on the surface
The effects of aerosols on the climate are a problem for the L&S model, as the authors almost admit in the paper:
However, given the sensitivity of the Arctic to external forcing and the intense interest in
the effects of aerosols on its climate, it is important to examine and quantify the effects of individual groups of anthropogenic forcing agents.
Here is a quick summary of the issue:
The effects of aerosols on clouds consist of three linked elements.
To evaluate the global
effects of aerosols on the direct radiative balance, tropospheric chemistry, and cloud properties of the earth's atmosphere requires high - precision remote sensing that is sensitive to the aerosol optical thickness, size istribution, refractive index, and number density.
In models that include indirect effects, different treatments of the indirect effect are used, including changing the albedo of clouds according to an off - line calculation (e.g., Tett et al., 2002) and a fully interactive treatment of
the effects of aerosols on clouds (e.g., Stott et al., 2006b).
This mis - representation and can have significant ramifications for estimating the direct and indirect
effects of aerosols on climate.
This is one of the best examples of why aerosol mixing state is so important for modeling
the effect of aerosols on climate.
Re: Step # 2 and
the effect of aerosols on low cloud.
These forcings are spatially heterogeneous and include
the effect of aerosols on clouds and associated precipitation [e.g., Rosenfeld et al., 2008], the influence of aerosol deposition (e.g., black carbon (soot)[Flanner et al. 2007] and reactive nitrogen [Galloway et al., 2004]-RRB-, and the role of changes in land use / land cover [e.g., Takata et al., 2009].
Here are a few of the problems that need to be worked out: There's the issue of
the effect of the aerosols on stratospheric chemistry (think how unanticipated the chemistry of the Ozone Hole was), and the question of just where the aerosols would go once injected.
Better understanding of
the effect of aerosols on Earth's climate in the past can help climate scientist make better predictions of climate change trends in the future, the researchers said.
The effect of aerosols on cloud fraction that Gryspeerdt et al 2016 refer to is the cloud lifetime effect, also known as the Albrecht effect!
Not exact matches
Even without the complicating
effects of aerosols, things aren't that simple
on Earth.
In this paper, UCR and Forest Service researchers teamed up to explore a previously unstudied aspect
of nitrogen saturation: its
effect on the gases and
aerosols released during burning
of forest fuels from an area experiencing nitrogen saturation.
Besides SSCE, scientists have also been investigating stratospheric sulfur injections — firing sun - reflecting
aerosols into the air, similar to the cooling
effect after a volcanic eruption — and cirrus cloud thinning, where you thin the top level
of clouds, which have a warming
effect on the planet.
Overall, improving our understanding
of one
of the largest natural
aerosol sources is critical if we are to understand the
effects of human - made
aerosols on climate,» says Matt Salter.
«Tiny particles have outsize impact
on storm clouds, precipitation: Amazon rainforest provides a unique natural lab to study
effects of aerosols.»
«We've shown that under clean and humid conditions, like those that exist over the ocean and some land in the tropics, tiny
aerosols have a big impact
on weather and climate and can intensify storms a great deal,» said Fan, an expert
on the
effects of pollution
on storms and weather.
Several symposia have a local focus, including sessions
on ecology and education in San Diego's Mission Bay Park and the causes and
effects of aerosol particles in San Diego's atmosphere.
A deeper understanding
of dust
aerosols and their
effects on precipitation could also be used to boost precipitation artificially, Prather said.
Despite its smaller ash cloud, El Chichn emitted more than 40 times the volume
of sulfur - rich gases produced by Mt. St. Helens, which revealed that the formation
of atmospheric sulfur
aerosols has a more substantial
effect on global temperatures than simply the volume
of ash produced during an eruption.
Forster's chapter also reports
on another important uncertainty: the cooling
effect of smoke and other
aerosols, which some argued almost negated the warming
effect of greenhouse gases in the short term.
The theory
of dangerous climate change is based not just
on carbon dioxide warming but
on positive and negative feedback
effects from water vapor and phenomena such as clouds and airborne
aerosols from coal burning.
The information could also feed into climate models to help understand the
effects of clouds and
aerosols on Earth's energy balance.
Scientists believe that
aerosols exert an influence
on climate roughly equal to that
of greenhouse gases, but the current estimate
of aerosols» climate
effect carries a large margin
of error.
«There is a link between the chemistry that goes
on in this type
of air motion and the subsequent
effects on the trace gases and
aerosols in the atmosphere that ultimately impact climate.»
The study also showed that the
effect was much larger
on a regional scale, counteracting possibly up to 30 %
of warming in more rural, forested areas where anthropogenic emissions
of aerosols were much lower in comparison to the natural
aerosols.
Yet there is no doubt that research into atmospheric
aerosols is becoming increasingly important due to the
effects that they can have
on the global temperature
of Earth, given that solar radiation is the main source
of energy for Earth - Atmosphere system.
However, he says, «
Aerosol effects on climate are one
of the main uncertainties in climate models.
«Scientists have talked about Arctic melting and albedo decrease for nearly 50 years,» said Ramanathan, a distinguished professor
of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps who has previously conducted similar research
on the global dimming
effects of aerosols.
At least over the oceans, the pre-industrial cloud conditions would have been considerably different from those
of today; this implies that the
aerosols we have been adding to the atmosphere may have had a significant
effect on global patterns
of cloud formation and rain.
What's more, according to Tim Bates
of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), «there's a very wide range
of sizes [for
aerosol particles], and the
effect that the particle is going to have
on climate is going to be very dependent
on its size, which makes it trickier.»
When analyzed together with the
aerosol loading over the same area at the same time, the outcome, says Koren, was a «textbook demonstration
of the invigoration
effect»
of added
aerosols on clouds.
The latter type
of sensors, Robock notes, could directly measure the size distribution
of aerosols, which could help researchers better model their
effects on climate.
The cooling
effect of aerosols can partly offset global warming
on a short - term basis, but many are made
of organic material that comes from sources that scientists don't fully understand, said Joost de Gouw, a research physicist at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., who is unaffiliated with the studies.
This mission is fulfilled by operating atmospheric observatories around the world that collect massive amounts
of atmospheric measurements to provide data products that help scientists study the
effects and interactions
of clouds and
aerosols and their impact
on the earth's energy balance.
Subsequently we will investigate the
effects of these vapours
on the nucleation and growth
of aerosols.
Now if this was the 1980s they might have had a point, but the fact that
aerosols are an important climate forcing, have a net cooling
effect on climate and, in part, arise from the same industrial activities that produce greenhouse gases, has been part
of mainstream science for 30 years.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding
of the importance
of water vapor feedback, sulfate
aerosols, black carbon
aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea ice and attendant decreases in albedo,
effects of the deposition
of soot and dust
on snow and ice decreasing albedo, and a recognition
of the importance
of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
The multi-scale
aerosol - climate model, an extension
of a multi-scale modeling framework, examined specific
aerosol - cloud interactions and their
effects on the Earth's energy budget, one
of the toughest climate forecasting problems.
Sally, who was nominated by Dr. Beat Schmid, Associate Director, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, was honored for her exceptional contribution in the field
of atmospheric science, particularly in her efforts to improve understanding
of the radiative
effect of clouds and
aerosols on the Earth's atmosphere and their representation in climate models.
Microphysical
effects determine macrophysical response for
aerosol impacts
on deep convective clouds, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Early Edition online the week
of November 11 - 15, 2013, DOI: 10.1073 / pnas.1316830110.
Comparisons show a lesser
effect on the Earth's energy budget, considering the additional burden
of human - caused
aerosols.
Fascinatingly, the book from the mid-70s said that there was one climate scientist — Wally Broecker - who predicted that the greenhouse warming was
on the verge
of overtaking the
aerosol cooling
effects and that by the year 2000 the planet would be warmer than it had been in 1000 years.
The top priorities should be reducing uncertainties in climate sensitivity, getting a better understanding
of the
effect of climate change
on atmospheric circulation (critical for understanding
of regional climate change, changes in extremes) and reducing uncertainties in radiative forcing — particularly those associated with
aerosols.