Present - day observational capabilities lack sufficient capacity to monitor the environmental
effects of an albedo - modification deployment.
There could still be regional cooling in places like in the north Atlantic, which could slowdown melting on Greenland, and give the world an opportunity to take advantage by putting the reduction of GHGs on the front burner asap to mitigate
the effects of albedo reduction and sea level rise from that source, when the heat returns.
However, the NAS report also noted that the potential
effects of albedo modification remain poorly understood and quantified.
Scientists lack even the observational tools to measure
the effects of albedo modification, the report states.
To make up for those shortcomings, the report called for a research program, including smaller scale field trials, whose goal «should be to improve understanding of the range of climate and other environmental
effects of albedo modification, as well as understanding of unintended impacts.»
Not exact matches
Whereas carbon levels can affect warming on a global scale, the
effects of increased
albedo and poor evotranspiration would affect temperatures only on a regional level.
The
albedo effect, when applied to Earth, is a measure
of how much
of the Sun's energy is reflected back into space.
A diminishing
albedo in Arctic sea ice can be considered both the cause and
effect of changes in sea ice.
«Scientists have talked about Arctic melting and
albedo decrease for nearly 50 years,» said Ramanathan, a distinguished professor
of climate and atmospheric sciences at Scripps who has previously conducted similar research on the global dimming
effects of aerosols.
Another positive feedback
of global warming is the
albedo effect: less white summer ice means more dark open water, which absorbs more heat from the sun.
Among the most uncertain elements in climate models are the
effects of aerosols and their interactions with clouds — just the things involved in
albedo modification — she says.
Fires in the planet's northern regions, he said, speed permafrost melt and contribute to the
albedo effect by creating dark, exposed stretches
of land.
Keith adds, however, that the few existing studies suggest
albedo modification could help ameliorate some
effects of global warming.
While plants also absorb carbon from the air, the team found that the warming power
of water vapor and the
albedo effect in particular far outweigh this cooling factor.
They tend to believe that as the planet warms, low - level cloud cover will increase, thus increasing planetary
albedo (overall reflectiveness
of the Earth), offsetting the increased greenhouse
effect and preventing a dangerous level
of global warming from occurring.
Regardless
of how hot the Sahara may feel when you stand in it, the difference in radiative
effect between it and rainforest is in its higher
albedo, reflecting more direct sunlight, the darker forests absorb more heat.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding
of the importance
of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea ice and attendant decreases in
albedo,
effects of the deposition
of soot and dust on snow and ice decreasing
albedo, and a recognition
of the importance
of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
There are many other feedbacks, most notably the the ice -
albedo effect of Arctic sea ice, which have already passed their tipping points.
What G&T are missing is the linear
effect of water vapour accelerating the ice
albedo effect of change in size
of the sea ice sheets.
For starters, one simply can not equate the positive feedback
effect of melting ice (both reduced
albedo and increased water vapor) from that
of leaving maximum ice to that
of minimum ice where the climate is now (and is during every interglacial period).
The radiative
effect of clouds on the shortwave fluxes is computed as a seasonally varying (but fixed from one year to the next) and spatially varying atmospheric
albedo.
But they do at least have certain basic physical principles in their cloud representations — clouds over ice have less
albedo effect than clouds over water, you don't get high clouds in regions
of subsidence, stable boundary layers lead to marine stratus, etc..
In the mid-latitudes, both
of these
effects (
albedo and water) are competing.
Although the authors caution that their results are approximations intended to guide future modeling efforts, this study provides fundamental information regarding the relative difficulty
of achieving desired
albedo modification
effects and is an important starting point for understanding the limits
of what is widely considered one
of the most viable solar geoengineering techniques.
There was more ice around in the LGM and that changes the weighting
of ice -
albedo feedback, but also the operation
of the cloud feedback since clouds over ice have different
effects than clouds over water.
There are many other feedbacks, most notably the the ice -
albedo effect of Arctic sea ice, which have already passed their tipping points.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to
albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition
of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the
effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
I was interested not so much in the forcing
effect of clouds themselves so much as the change in
albedo which might result from a change in the overall extent
of global cloud cover.
Calculations as to the magnitude
of this
effect (that is, how dust is needed to significantly decrease glacier
albedo) certainly have been done, though probably not on a global basis.
Other factors would include: —
albedo shifts (both from ice > water, and from increased biological activity, and from edge melt revealing more land, and from more old dust coming to the surface...); — direct
effect of CO2 on ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly warm, rain fall on ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting
of sea ice shelf increasing mobility
of glaciers; — sea water getting under parts
of the ice sheets where the base is below sea level; — melt water lubricating the ice sheet base; — changes in ocean currents -LRB-?)
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding
of the importance
of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea ice and attendant decreases in
albedo,
effects of the deposition
of soot and dust on snow and ice decreasing
albedo, and a recognition
of the importance
of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
«By comparing the response
of clouds and water vapor to ENSO forcing in nature with that in AMIP simulations by some leading climate models, an earlier evaluation
of tropical cloud and water vapor feedbacks has revealed two common biases in the models: (1) an underestimate
of the strength
of the negative cloud
albedo feedback and (2) an overestimate
of the positive feedback from the greenhouse
effect of water vapor.
Note also that going back to the ice ages, the glacial - interglacial temperature swing can not be explained without full water vapour feedback on top
of both the ice sheet
albedo and CO2
effects.
Pretty much all existing GCMs take into account changes in cloud
albedo effects (though these are still characterized by a fairly high level
of uncertainty).
What G&T are missing is the linear
effect of water vapour accelerating the ice
albedo effect of change in size
of the sea ice sheets.
I think that only illustrates the bizarre use
of the global average and models that in
effect suggest cutting down trees would increase
albedo and cool the planet.
After all the sea / ice
albedo difference is large and the southern oceans are more likely to be part
of an ocean mechanism for propagating the Milankovitch
effect.
There's been different flavors
of how this could work, either by reducing the
albedo in the early Archean (e.g., Rosing et al 2010) or increasing the greenhouse
effect (Rondanelli and Lindzen, 2010).
I am well aware
of the cooling
effect of atmospheric particulates etc (if I remember correctly isn't it properly called
albedo?)
For example, the ice age — interglacial cycles that we have been locked in for the past few million years seem to be triggered by subtle changes in the earth's orbit around the sun and in its axis
of rotation (the Milankovitch cycles) that then cause ice sheets to slowly build up (or melt away)... which changes the
albedo (reflectance)
of the earth amplifying this
effect.
Eventually, when we know more about the
effects of the mechanisms involved, fluctuations in cosmic rays could be incorporated in helping model cloud
albedo changes.
black soot has also been found by a recent university
of california study to be the direct cause
of the
albedo warming
effect on the otherwise highly reflective and pristine white arctic ice & snow.
Your illogic is to think that this somehow would be some sort
of legitimate argument that the (inverse) cause and
effect relationship between
albedo and global temperature established by the laws
of physics is false.
Does more evaporation lead to more clouds and if so is the net
effect of more clouds to increase
albedo or to further increase GHE?
The resulting increased / decreased ice is amplified by «various feedbacks, including ice -
albedo, dust, vegetation and,
of course, the carbon cycle which amplify the direct
effects of the orbital changes.»
The fraction
of the light that scatters back out to space is responsible for the increased
albedo and the cooling
effect from sulfate aerosols.
However, simulations using the relatively straightforward «direct
effect»
of aerosols (the increase in
albedo of the planet due to the particle brightness) do not match the inferred changes.
The bottom line is that uncertainties in the physics
of aerosol
effects (warming from black carbon, cooling from sulphates and nitrates, indirect
effects on clouds, indirect
effects on snow and ice
albedo) and in the historical distributions, are really large (as acknowledged above).
«Our estimate for the mean soot
effect on spectrally integrated
albedos in the Arctic (1.5 %) and Northern Hemisphere land areas (3 %) yields a Northern Hemisphere forcing
of 0.3 W m2 or an effective hemispheric forcing
of 0.6 W m2.»
These variables include volcanic outgassing, Malankovich cycles, tectonic plate movements, solar variability, meteor impacts, comet tails,
albedo, oceanic circulation, topography, a variety
of hidden threshold
effects, biological evolution and human technology.»