The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the warming
effects of greenhouse gases seems to be unfounded.
The radiative
effects of greenhouse gases seem fairly obvious and have been since I read the first IPCC report all those years ago.
Not exact matches
Generally speaking, the U.S. and international press
seemed to think the report, which finds the pipeline would have minimal
effects on
greenhouse gas emissions, bodes well for TransCanada's long - delayed project to connect the oilsands to Gulf
of Mexico refineries.
So basically earth would somewhat similar to Earth without a
greenhouse effect, and strange as it may
seem, it would a world without
greenhouse effect as the would be a shortage
of the most dominant
greenhouse gas the earth has: water vapor.
This is how the climate models
seem to represent it — they multiply the
effect of CO2, and they do this with a degree
of certainty regarding CO2 NOT matched by a similar degree
of certainty regarding water vapor (the most abundant
greenhouse gas of all).
I have no doubt that it is a
greenhouse gas but, if the atmospheric content is a function
of the integral
of global temperature and unrelated to anthropogenic emissions, It
seems these emissions are too insignificant in relation to natural CO2 variations to have any measurable
effect.
There
seems to be a popular perception that the
greenhouse effect and man - made global warming theories can not be tested because «we only have one Earth», and so, unless we use computer models, we can not test what the Earth would be like if it had a different history
of infrared - active
gas concentrations.
Because this issue pertains to the
effects of greenhouse gases on the climate, it
seems that a scholars definition would be better that a religious one.
This essentially is a moderating
effect, and does not
seem to be dependent on re-radiation
of IR trapping
greenhouse gases in anyway, except to the extent that it slows the rate
of heat loss at night (which may very well be a real — albiet a small —
effect).
Other characteristics
of the Earth will affect the net position such as the distribution
of the land and sea surfaces but given the predominance
of ocean surfaces and the fact that most energy comes in at the equator which is mostly oceanic then it
seems most likely that the net global
effect of more
greenhouse gases is actually a miniscule cooling rather than a miniscule warming.
I may be reading things incorrectly, but it would
seem to me that
greenhouse gases must be in the atmosphere, as opposed to buried under ice and snow, to be part
of the
greenhouse effect.
It
seems to me that the
effect of greenhouse gases is strongest when * temperatures * are highest — during daytime — so the
greenhouse warming would be strongest during the day.
Reminds me a little
of the RC article titled something like «CO2 is not the only
greenhouse gas and
greenhouse effects are not the only CO2 problem» Here it would be «extraterrestrial rock impacts are not the only cause for a sudden cooling, and not all et impacts necessarily lead to a cooling» It
seems that you'd have to have multiple, definite, rock layer evidence associated with definite, repeated cooling events for their hypothesis / conclusion to have much weight behind it.
Although previous research had
seemed to indicate that aerosols could create a general cooling
effect in the atmosphere — thus helping mitigate the
effect of global warming — a new study has revealed that they may in fact warm it just as much as
greenhouse gases.