Sentences with phrase «effects prediction models»

Not exact matches

, Fabian Hollstein, Marcel Prokopczuk and Chardin Simen test effects of different return sampling frequencies, forecast adjustments and model combinations on market beta prediction accuracy across the universe of U.S. stocks.

The researchers believe this model better reflects the complexities of social species — in comparison to other models that do not consider the social organization of populations — and thus allows field biologist to test specific predictions about the effects of sociality.

Although a more detailed understanding of the physics of the two layers is necessary to improve the computer models, the stratospheric effects can simply be used as another factor to incorporate into statistical predictions.

In his new paper, Lovejoy applies the same approach to the 15 - year period after 1998, during which globally averaged temperatures remained high by historical standards, but were somewhat below most predictions generated by the complex computer models used by scientists to estimate the effects of greenhouse - gas emissions.

He thinks previous models that did not take midair collision into account have been underestimating the strength of sandstorms, making their prediction of a storm's effects on the landscape inaccurate.

By relying on this well - validated prediction model, the team was able to include subjects who live in unmonitored and less - populated areas so that the effects of air pollution on all 60 million people could be analyzed regardless of whether they lived in urban, suburban, or rural areas.

Reporting in the Nov. 14 issue of the journal Science, University of California, Berkeley, climate scientist David Romps and his colleagues look at predictions of precipitation and cloud buoyancy in 11 different climate models and conclude that their combined effect will generate more frequent electrical discharges to the ground.

Requist and Tosatti created a computer model of the Kondo effect under these conditions and formulated predictions on the behaviour of the molecules.

I'd previously worked on industrial mathematical modeling, such as the design of aircraft wings, the prediction of the effects of explosives planted in quarries, and the optimal design of razors (the two - blade variety) to name but a few.

«At present, these effects are not generally accounted for in climate model prediction studies,» study co-author J. T. Kiehl of NCAR notes.

His model also makes specific predictions about the effect these clouds will have on the planet's climate and the types of information that future telescopes, like the James Webb Space Telescope, will be able to gather.

JILA's results, notably the effects of molecular collisions, need to be included in future atmospheric and combustion model predictions, according to the paper.

«The development of this microfluidic lung model, as well as other organs - on - chip, holds the promise of improving the physiological relevance of cellular models for more accurate prediction of the effects of toxicants and drugs on humans, and for reducing the use of animals in medical and pharmaceutical research,» said Sonia Grego, Ph.D., research scientist at RTI and the project's principal investigator.

Another feature of the «Pinatubo effect» that mirrors the predictions of the models is the greater cooling of the interiors of continental landmasses compared with other regions of the globe.

In the same paper in which he made his often - quoted «prediction» that doubling the atmospheric concentration of CO 2 would lead to an increase of 10 °C in surface mean temperature, F. Möller makes an almost never quoted disclaimer to the effect that a 1 percent increase in general cloudiness in the same model would completely mask this effect.

As an effect, you may feel more comfortable with the predictions you'll plot into your valuation models (i.e. a Discounted Cash Flow analysis).

As the increasing levels of anthropogenic CO2 used for climate prediction are essentially predicated by the increase in economic activity world - wide and the effects thereof, has the IPCC's SRES model been adjusted in the light of the criticisms made by Castles and Henderson in 2002/3 and subsequently presented at the IPCC TGCIA meeting in Amsterdam, Jan 2003?

I encountered «great difficulties» from Jan of 2000 until July of 2005 as a result of my concerns with climate change effects on hydrologic modeling and flood prediction.

combination of those model runs could be used for short term predictions, out to a time horizon limited by the butterfly effect (or to go a bit farther, if the nearest neighbors diverge but remain in a few families, then the prediction can be: «likely A or B or C but not everything else» — and as all the trajectories diverge, they'll still tend to follow the strange attractor (which itself will be changing via external forcing changes, of course).

These are all things that climate change model should take into account to arrive at better predictions of the future, but the full effects of this nitrogen fertilization aren't yet entirely clear.

But before the deniers crow that climatologists don't know what they're doing, note this well: The predictions made using these models almost always seem to underestimate the effects of climate change.

Just as a hypothetical example: If climate scientist will tell me that recent pause in global warming is due to the effect of an inactive sun (which is the reality as reported by following) http://www.spaceweather.com and that they will go back and improve their models to account for this, then I would be more inclined to believe their other claims... Instead the IPCC doubles down on their predictions and claim the future effects will be worst than they originally thought?

And by that, I don't mean computer models — I use computer models, and they are totally invalid at prediction — and I don't mean reports of «warming effects» unless you can show the mechanism that definitively links the cause to the effect, and shows that CO2 can be the only cause.

A top - down climate effect that shows long - term drift (and may also be out of phase with the bottom - up solar forcing) would change the spatial response patterns and would mean that climate - chemistry models that have sufficient resolution in the stratosphere would become very important for making accurate regional / seasonal climate predictions.

''... qualitatively consistent with the counterintuitive prediction of a global atmospheric - ocean model of increasing sea ice around Antarctica with climate warming due to the stabilizing effects of increased snowfall on the Southern Ocean.»

Long - term predictions about the effect of this or that driver using such models are bogus.

As Sorokhtin et al. (2007) mention, until recently a sound theory using laws of physics for the greenhouse effect was lacking and all numerical calculations and predictions were based on intuitive models using numerous poorly defined parameters.

Over the long term, these effects average out, which is why climate models do so well at long - term predictions.

More complex examples (General Circulation Models) attempt to represent everything — clouds, air movement, rain, shrinking ice, ocean heat, as well as the interaction between all these things, which in effect define climate — as well as use archive information to model climates from the past, in order to make predictions for the future.

Do you notice that all models predictions curve upward in the later years when we know that CO2's effect is logarithmic and the temperatures should therefore go flatter in the later years.

All the causes are present, but the main effect, climate sensitivity, the only prediction of the model that can be estimated, has not materialized.

As the measurement and prediction of thermal bridging effects continues to improve, it will be more widely included in both energy models and building codes and standards.

In 1992, we had just completed the first IPCC assessment report, here was their conclusion: «The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability... The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more.

This would in turn allow experts to developer better climate models to help analyze and understand the ocean and the atmosphere, which could lead to more accurate predictions on the effects of the global climate change.

Reporting in the Nov. 14 issue of the journal Science, climate scientist David Romps of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California, Berkeley, and his colleagues look at predictions of precipitation and cloud buoyancy in 11 different climate models and conclude that their combined effect will generate more frequent electrical discharges to the ground.

«Prediction of weather and climate are necessarily uncertain: our observations of weather and climate are uncertain, the models into which we assimilate this data and predict the future are uncertain, and external effects such as volcanoes and anthropogenic greenhouse emissions are also uncertain.

There are models that give large CO2 effects, models that give moderate CO2 effects, and models that give large CO2 effects as outputs; but there are no models that have made confirmed accurate predictions against out of sample data.

Linearity can be a useful approximation for short - term effects when changes are small as in some weather forecasting, but certainly not for the long - term predictions from climate models.

No climate model can predict climate changes at a local level where the effects are felt - predictions are only made for averages collated at a continental spatial scale and over periods of decades.

Habitat loss alone may be a good predictor of extinctions of threatened and endemic species in biodiversity hotspots, but this takes no account of pervasive synergistic effects of hunting, wildfires and other anthropogenic impacts on isolated populations which may lead to much higher extinction rates compared to predictions from unqualified SAR models alone.

The resemblance of the NH cents SAT patterns to the typical cell - like NAM pattern effects in the meteorological data used here and the similarity of model predictions of Rozanov et al. to the positive NAM SAT pattern perhaps indicates a common mechanism between the NAM and changes induced by geomagnetic variations.

As a result, IPCC climate models incorporate the greenhouse effect into heir code and lts use leads to such things as prediction of a non-existent warm spot at ten kilometer height.

This not only fits with conceptual models regarding the atmospheric effects of El Niño, but is also strongly supported by model predictions.

Some scientists are revisiting some basic assumptions of climate prediction models, such as the effects of clouds and smoke particles in the atmosphere.

And there is an obvious selection effect that on average, the selected published models will be close to the observations, but that the disagreements may more or less cancel statistically: I wouldn't be surprised if ON AVERAGE, astrological predictions would be shown to give a reasonable rate of various catastrophes, earthquakes,

You see there are several papers and presentations which seem to empirically show an increasing greenhouse effect and measured CO2 radiative forcings similar to model predictions.

Scenario Three focuses on the political and social effects of a robust climate modeling prediction for serious drying of the Mexican and Central American climate.

As discussed above, it is possible to overfit the statistical model during the calibration period, which has the effect of underestimating the prediction error.

But water vapour is declining in the upper atmosphere, the opposite of model predictions, just were it has a very large effect on OLR.

If confirmed by further research, this newly discovered effect — which is not seen in current climate prediction models — could significantly reduce estimates of future climate warming.