Since the values given are stated to be «mean and 95 % confidence intervals», I can not see any justification for
the efficacy uncertainty ranges actually being 95 % confidence intervals for a single run, centered on the mean efficacy calculated over all runs.
As already noted, my iRF
efficacy uncertainty ranges are much narrower than Marvel et al.'s.
Not exact matches
Their revised primary (iRF) estimate of historical transient
efficacy is, per Table S1, 1.0 (0.995 at the centre of the symmetrical
uncertainty range).
AR5, after surveying a wider
range of evidence, reached similar conclusions, and accordingly in other cases estimated ERF to be the same as RF, with an implied
efficacy estimate of one, but gave wider
ranges for ERF to allow for
uncertainty in the relationship between ERF and RF.