Sentences with phrase «el nino»

The lunar declinational tides are the main driver of the meridional flow surges into the mid-latitudes that produce almost all of the severe weather, running the variations in the el nino / la nina oscillations when combined with the outer planet Synod planet conjunctions, resulting in the compounded signal, that is the background climate noise not attributable to the CO2 forcing, but still interacting with the solar forcing, both magnetically and by TSI output.

Does this have an effect on el nino throwing in heat that the oceans periodically expel into the atmosphere?

1998 was a super el nino event, that explains the anomalous high temperature just fine.

the el nino circulation is so clearly right on the equator... and discussion of air mass cells and oscillations and cyclones, and monsoons and jet streams — all this really needs to be animated to make sense.

Looking at the chart with the trends for el nino, neutral and la nina years I note that the last 7 years, and the year to date figure are all a little bit below the trend line appropriate to the ENSO status for each year.

Slightly off topic, but when looking at the satellite temperature record, the big el nino years seem really warm.

So, why no 1C drop in global temperatures like it did after the 1999 el nino?

There was cooling, but then an el nino response and overall a general warm period in the tropical Pacific that ended with the Super Nino and the earths temps reaching a peak.

The 1877 warm pulse and associated drought linked to an el nino was estimated to have killed 10 million people in China and not many less in India.

The kelvin wave was the only thing that even suggested a strong el nino to begin with and now that it's surfacing we can see it's not creating 1997 type temperature increases in the ocean.

98 was an unusually hot year due to the el nino and 2007 was el nina (cooling) so one would expect that.

Not only that Bob, but because the current el nino is unfolding in a similar way as 1997, you can just compare them at similar stages.

The models, as of now, are calling for a mild el nino.

This el nino is already proving not as powerful as the 97 el nino, failing to hit similar targets at similar points of its evolution.

Something else will have to happen to give this el nino a kick start.

Seems it is only because of the El Nino of 1998 & el nino of 2015/2016 that the models have reached the middle of the predictions.

If that doesn't happen, this el nino will come no where close to 1997.

so, yeah, it is really convenient that ocean surface temperatures have gone down since the 1998 el nino due to wind patterns but that extra heat going into the ocean is just as much a component of warming as air temperatures.

The surface temperature of the plant has not risen for (say) 11 years — I hate cherry picking the 1998 el nino.

Concerning the el nino of 1998, I don't recall any warmists proclaiming, «oh, no big deal.

After learning there was a 60 - 70 year periodicity of el nino / la ninas why would you assume that's the extent of it?

My point, for what it's worth, is that the warmists seem to want both to use el nino's as evidence of warming, then at other times to simply attribute them to natural variability.

We shouldn't take the warm temps this year too seriously / It's just the el nino»

after the atmosphere corrected to the input of the warmer PDO, now cooling (though there will be the el nino spike followed by the bigger drop off which is plainly evident on the NCEP (not Cato) temperatures since the PDO flip) there was a leveling off and now the drop off starts.

«This warm el nino is consistent with a lower sensitivity.»

It's pathetic, how desperately these guys are hoping an el nino bails them out, however temporarily.

He is just looking for an external source to explain the super el nino from 1998.

And if we do nt get record temperatures despite an el nino....

tallbloke (07:59:48): «A short time back Erl predicted la nina conditions petering out around may and a weak el nino building mid year.

A short time back Erl predicted la nina conditions petering out around may and a weak el nino building mid year.

If the surface temp heats up during an el nino, blame that, but then forget about the el nino when using the same data point as the cherry - picked start of a trend.

In this case I can even give you a source of the noise that makes 1997 higher than the expected value: The super el nino that began that year.

As these have the effect of distorting the mean eg remove the first point excursion of say el nino and AGW disappears into noise over the last 40 yrs.

Expect the step change from this extended el nino event will not be so significant.

A little el nino is all it will take to beat 1998, but the GISS record might still stand.

But the weather services regularly mispredict the winter season, el nino, etc. so I am not optimistic.

Being a declining solar cycle, an el nino, and the warmest year on record.

Cohers, that huge climate shift of ’76 from la nina to el nino plus whatever else it was, was an incredible sea change in so many ways.

Much like the cyclicallity of la nino / el nino which I believe they show some links with.

so el nino, an effect that is based on a band of high ocean temperatures might be linked to water temperatures?

This el nino is beating the peak temperature during the 1998 super el nino, because it is starting from a higher base temperature.

This el nino is beating the peak temperature during the 1998 super el nino

If one looks at 400 mb temps on the UAH site over the past 10 years, there has been no change, though years with the el nino it is warmer than normal, years with a la nina cooler.

or «We expect 2007 to be the warmest year on record due to the ongoing el nino event» (remember that one from the HadCru guy at the beginning of January last year?)

It was well known — and in fact had been demonstrated most recently in an article in Nature — that, while el nino, along with volcanic eruptions, did explain a fair amoount of the short - term year - to - year variability in global temperatures, it could not accouny for the warming trend., Had McLean et al somehow discovered something that had eluded the entire research community fir decades?

Another head of the hydra was a 2009 paper by John McLean, Chris de Freitas and Bob Carter published in JGR in the innoccuously titled «Influence of the Southern Oscillation on Tropospheric Temperature», the authors claimed that el nino drove essentially all variations to global temperature — a distinctly odd claim since almost nothing in climate science has been mroe closely studied than the relationship between el nino and global climate.

BTW, the 1998 super el nino is a perfect example of the relief valve opening.

So once the (supposedly natural) el nino cause was established, Americans forgot about GW and went back to business as usual....

Prior to those weather assurances by the weathermen, people were beginning to think GW may be responsible for the weird weather, but the U.S. weathermen IDed el nino (like Perry Mason IDing the actual killer, only it was probably a hired killer and not the guy (GW) behind the crime).

3) You claimed the high atmospheric CO2 recently must be due to human causes, with no understanding it was largely el nino.