Sentences with phrase «election vote intentions»

The graphs below show how changes in the shares of council seats won by each party are strongly correlated with changes in general election vote intentions.

Continue reading Local elections vote share (PNS) and general election vote intention →

The graph below shows the BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) from local elections together with general election vote intention from the polls for the month before each round of local elections.

On European election voting intentions, Labour (32 per cent) lead Ukip (21 per cent) with the Conservatives and the Greens tied on 16 per cent each, and the LibDems on 8 per cent.

UKIP's share of general election vote intention, at 14 % last week, is much more muted than the 23 % they achieved in the Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) from the local elections.

The poll's figures for general election voting intentions are not as bad but still not good: although the headline figures are Con 31 %, Lab 36 %, LD 9 %, UKIP 15 %, of those who voted Labour in 2010, 9 % are said to be intending to vote UKIP.

This is certainly a story that fits the main pattern of change in the general election vote intention opinion polls.

We shall then review the way we ask our general election voting intention question.

There is even better news for UKIP and the Greens on European election voting intention.

Judging by this and the European election voting intention figures the fuss over the UKIP posters is more likely to have helped their support than damaged it.

No proper figures yet, but Matthew D'Ancona's column in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph is already up and reveals ICM have a new poll including European election voting intentions, and that it shows Labour in third place with less than 20 %.

This is the highest «none of the above» vote since the time of the 2009 European elections, when successes for UKIP, the BNP and the Greens in that proportional - voting contest transferred briefly into well - above - average general election voting intentions.

Reports do not make clear whether this is a general election voting intention question or a local election voting intention question — either way, I'm reserving judgement till I see the tables on the ICM website.

This is because a significant number of Londoners — 8 % of our total sample — are Labour supporters (according to their General Election voting intention) who prefer Boris as mayor.

Not exact matches

Reasons have since been offered for the high - profile provincial misses — in the case of Alberta, a last - minute swing in voting intentions from Wildrose to the PCs; in B.C., the failure of those who said they'd vote NDP to show up on election day.

Indeed, it wasn't that the polls were wrong about the UK election; results were close, if you took people's voting intentions at face value.

They may account on some Trump supporters hiding their vote intention because of peer pressure / embarrassment using historical data, but if peer pressure is higher in this election than in previous elections it is difficult to tune up that effect correctly (how can you measure peer pressure to adjust your model before the election day?).

Scottish Tories currently campaigning for local government elections on May 4th tell stories about encountering long - standing Labour voters in local authority areas not exactly known for being friendly to Conservatives and who now declare their intention to vote for «Ruth» and the Tories.

This pattern is likely to be repeated at the next general election; in almost every voting intention poll, women express a lower propensity than men to vote, sometimes significantly so.

Since the general election was called Labour have gone up in the GB vote intention polls while the Liberal Democrats and especially UKIP have dropped.

This meant looking at polling data on voting intentions in key marginal seats, votes in the most recent local elections and the resources each party is likely to have to spend on campaigning in the area.

The graph below shows the latest What Scotland Thinks / ScotCen Poll of Polls of voting intentions in Scotland for the 2015 UK general election and how it has evolved over time.

Much like yesterday's Panelbase poll in The Sunday Times today's poll suggests there might have been some narrowing of the SNP lead in voting intentions for May's Westminster election.

Its standing in polls of vote intentions for Scottish Parliament elections averaged just 16 %, while its reading on vote intentions for a Westminster election were, at 14 %, even slightly worse.

The latest poll of voting intentions for Thursday's election, conducted by Survation for the Daily Record, is of particular interest for two reasons.

Last week a poll from Survation suggested that the huff and puff of the campaign, including not least two televised leader debates that took place either side of the Easter weekend, had not made much difference to the balance of voting intentions for next month's Scottish Parliament election.

By Jane Green and Chris Prosser There is no doubting that the Independence Referendum has had a profound impact on vote intentions for May's general election.

To get the nomination, you need 25 percent of the vote to get on the ballot, I think 40 percent to get the official designee or nominee of the party, so you want someone that would have the intention to continue to run and then that person would be on the ballot in September in the primary formally, and then in November in the general election,» Smikle explained.

Between now and the general election, which if we believe Alan Johnson is at most eight months away, there will probably be more than 100 voting intention polls bandied about, so I thought it would be helpful to offer Total Politics readers some basic pointers to help pick their way through this particular thicket.

I recently wrote to David Cameron outlining our intention to contest the 30 most marginal Conservative seats in 2015, where majorities in the 2010 general election ranged between 54 and 1,692 votes.

For instance, every pollster uses slightly different wording for the main voting intention question, but they generally relate expectation to a hypothetical election to be held tomorrow or in the near future.

The British Election Study Internet Panel (BESIP) provides two surveys to examine 2015 vote intentions: one was conducted in February - March and one in May - June 2014.

The net effects of this trend are reflected in the vote intention polls, but geographical implications for this year's local elections are not part of my model.

The Murdoch press empire decided to rain on the Scottish Labour leadership parade on Saturday by releasing a YouGov poll in The Sun and The Times showing the party is 20 points behind the SNP in voting intentions for next Westminster's election — an outcome that could see it lose the vast bulk of its Commons seats.

«For the first time in a poll on voting intentions in an election of a national character, the NF is clearly ahead,» an Ifop spokesperson said.

The forecasting model works by combining the number of seats won by parties in the previous election with vote intentions data from polls conducted six months prior to the election — in this case the data is from November 2014.

An ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph of voting intentions in a general election put Labour on 22 points, 18 behind the Conservatives, who are on 40 points, and three behind the Liberal Democrats on 25.

There is also the question of Gordon Brown — voting intention figures 4 years from a general election are of little importance at the best of times, let alone when we know the sitting Prime Minister will probably change before the next election.

The latest Populus poll is only the third national voting intention survey from the firm to be published since the general election and gives a slightly different picture although well within the margin or error on all three party shares.

We still haven't seen a post-election Populus voting intention poll (though to answer Mike Smithson's question here, I understand they are still doing them, they are just having a quiet period following the election), but Lord Ashcroft has commissioned them to do some polling in marginal seats, with some interesting findings.

The actual voting intention figures, with don't knows and won't votes excluded, is CON 49 %, LAB 20 %, LDEM 21 %, Others 10 % — representing a swing of 10.9 % from the last general election.

Despite that fantastic result at the general election, in Oldham we started with no voting intention records and there was always the danger that starting on paper in third place would result in a classic squeeze, which is why...

In our normal voting intention surveys, we list the main parties that secured significant support, regionally or nationally, at the last general election, adding the option «some other party».

A new YouGov poll for ITV London has topline voting intentions for the London mayoral election of Livingstone 44 % -LRB--1), Johnson 40 % -LRB--4), Paddick 8 % (+1).

And while UKIP has been consistently running at 14 - 15 % in voting intentions over the last year, a similar score in the general election of next year could bring a meagre return in seats.

In 2015, these results showed a clear advantage for David Cameron, when voting intention alone suggested the election was too close to call.

Cameron's eight percentage point lead among «enthusiastic voters» just before the May 2015 election seen in Figure 2 contrasts with the much less clear - cut picture given by «voting intention» alone (Figure 3, below).

There is a Populus poll in The Times tomorrow which does not appear to cover voting intention, but rather asks the public what they expect they outcome of the next election to be.

I am a member of You Gov and Populus and I can tell you I was rarely asked my opinion about voting intentions during the last election campaign.

In the end, Meng won an absolute majority of the vote against Lancman and Councilmember Elizabeth Crowley, and a week after the November election the outgoing Assemblyman announced his intention to run for the 24th Council District, held for three terms by the term limited James Gennaro.