This has significant implications for the Pacific Northwest — which stands a good chance of seeing very dry and warm conditions — and for California, which may see quite a lot of water falling from the sky in liquid form but considerably less falling as snow and sticking around to form a substantial middle -
elevation snowpack.
High
elevation snowpack is assessed from winter mass balance measurements on the South Cascade Glacier from 1960 - 2005 and on Easton Glacier 1990 - 2007 monitored by the North Cascade Glacier Climate Project.
This indicates that low
elevation snowpack has declined.
Not exact matches
Indeed, thanks to a snowy winter and cool spring, the
snowpack covering the entire Pacific Northwest — the vast majority of which is over 1,000 metres
elevation and still snowbound — is creating a glut of zero - emission energy as that huge annual reservoir melts and powers hydroelectric turbines.
This melting snow comes from
snowpack, the high
elevation reservoir of snow which melts in the spring and summer.
Additionally, as the state's
snowpack melts earlier because of warming, Cayan said, there is more runoff from higher
elevation, which increases flooding.
The researchers then went to an intermediate
elevation and simulated climate change by reducing the
snowpack, which made the plants flower seven days early, similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 20 to 30 years of climate change.
In western states where
snowpack is critical, we found decreases in the percent of winter precipitation falling as snow at
elevations between sea level and 5,000 feet.
Warming temperatures over the next century, especially during spring, are likely to reduce
snowpack at mid and low
elevations.
Snowpack accumulated at high
elevations tends to be more stable and persist longer than at low
elevations, largely as a result of colder temperatures at high
elevations.
In the Rocky Mountains, spring (February - March) warming since the 1980s has been largely responsible for recent
snowpack declines at mid - and low -
elevation sites (Pederson et al. 2013b).
Thus, the fire season in Montana typically extends from late June through October at lower
elevations, with shorter seasons at higher
elevations where
snowpack can persist into July (Keane et al. forthcoming).
The observed melting is greatest at lower
elevations, a trend matched in
snowpack declines across the Western U.S.
Results show that anthropogenic warming reduced average
snowpack levels by 25 %, with middle - to - low
elevations experiencing reductions between 26 and 43 %
Three different types of data sets are utilized to identify the changes in
snowpack across the North Cascades since 1946 with time and
elevation:
Extrapolation from site to site for accumulation can be accomplished, but only when the sites are at similar
elevations and the sites have a baseline history documenting the specific development of
snowpack..
April 1
snowpack at moderate
elevations is assessed from seven long - term Snow Course and now SNOTEL stations; Rainy Pass, Lyman Lake, Stevens Pass, Miners Ridge, Stampede Pass and Park Creek and Fish Lake monitored by the USDA.
However, the average
snowpack within a specific
elevation band is determined by regional climate variations.
This ratio is dependent only on temperature rise, which reduces
snowpack at all
elevations for a given amount of precipitation.
Local climate in the North Cascades influences mean
snowpack depth and ablation rate, but does not cause significantly different responses to annual climate conditions within specific
elevation bands.
«We went after
snowpack in the western U.S. because it provides about 60 to 80 percent of the water input in high
elevation mountains.»
The simulations underestimate the observed
snowpack trends in the Columbia River basin, which has the highest mean
elevation.
The rather striking graphic above demonstrates just how strong this elevational
snowpack gradient has been in 2017 — with near - record snow water equivalent comparable to 1983 at the highest
elevations and dramatically less accumulation further down the slopes.
One month later, only some sites — generally those at higher
elevations — had any measureable
snowpack.
If the annual equilibrium line, that is the
elevation where
snowpack remains at the end of the summer, rises above the mountain top this will lead to glacier loss.
Those who do come to the Northwest will be faced with an unpleasant reality, she adds, reciting a list of problems expected to strike the region before the turn of the century: regional temperature increases between 5.5 and 9.1 degrees Fahrenheit; drier summers making the Northwest's forests more susceptible to fire; declining
snowpack, as more precipitation falls as rain instead of snow at higher
elevations, straining regional water supplies and increasing the risk of flooding downstream.
Even though heavy snow may fall at the highest
elevations, it's not clear that conditions will be consistently cold enough for substantial
snowpack accumulation at middle
elevations in California.
In the Himalayan region, solar heating from black carbon at high
elevations may be just as important as carbon dioxide in the melting of
snowpacks and glaciers.
Because of its low
elevation, Jiminy is the kind of area that climatologists warn will be the first to lose its
snowpack to global warming.