In either case, assigning probabilities to ECS based on
emergent constraints makes me uncomfortable.
Not exact matches
Given that there is no strong a priori knowledge about any linear relationship — this is why it is an «
emergent»
constraint — it seems inadvisable to
make one's statistical inference strongly dependent on models that are not consistent with the data at hand.
Various attempts have been
made to narrow the likely range of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) through exploitation of «
emergent constraints.»
To my knowledge, the first attempt at establishing an
emergent constraint was
made by Allen and Ingram in 2002.