Sentences with phrase «emission projections of»

The paper by Meinshausen et al. (2011b) describes how the IAM's emission projections of long - lived greenhouse gases were harmonized and used for calculating concentration trajectories for these gases.

Not exact matches

Overly optimistic projections of future oil supply, which are much higher than the latest NEB projections and don't consider the Alberta government's cap on oil sands emissions imposed by its Climate Leadership Plan.

The long - term warming over the 21st century, however, is strongly influenced by the future rate of emissions, and the projections cover a wide variety of scenarios, ranging from very rapid to more modest economic growth and from more to less dependence on fossil fuels.

The International Energy Agency and a national Dutch body, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, published comparable projections of slowing global emissions earlier this year.

This critical question is addressed using simulations from climate models based on projections of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.

Combining the asylum - application data with projections of future warming, the researchers found that an increase of average global temperatures of 1.8 °C — an optimistic scenario in which carbon emissions flatten globally in the next few decades and then decline — would increase applications by 28 percent by 2100, translating into 98,000 extra applications to the EU each year.

Most projections say tighter regulations, cleaner sources of electricity and higher - mileage vehicles will cut industrial emissions enough by the end of this century that farm emissions will be starved of the other ingredients necessary to create aerosols, she said.

The good news is if combustion emissions decline in coming decades, as most projections say, fine - particle pollution will go down even if fertilizer use doubles as expected, according to the new study published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

According to government projections, the price cut will increase demand for electricity and push up emissions of CO2 by about half a million tonnes a year.

They used those readings to estimate NOx emissions from soil, after subtracting local estimates from the CARB California Emissions Projection Analysis Model of NOx emissions derived from fossemissions from soil, after subtracting local estimates from the CARB California Emissions Projection Analysis Model of NOx emissions derived from fossEmissions Projection Analysis Model of NOx emissions derived from fossemissions derived from fossil fuels.

New projections by researchers from the Universities of Southampton and Liverpool, and the Australian National University in Canberra, could be the catalyst the world has sought to determine how best to meet its obligations to reduce carbon emissions and better manage global warming as defined by the Paris Agreement.

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, on mitigating emissions, finds a few glimmers of hope amid gloomy projections.

In the team's new analysis, Smith and Mizrahi use what they contend are more reasonable projections for emissions reductions, a more conservative timeline for the development and deployment of methane - capture technology, and more realistic estimates for how quickly Earth's climate will respond to reductions in methane and soot.

When this model was then applied to the future, they found that in a world of continuing high greenhouse gas emissions, the threshold for widespread drought - induced vascular damage would be crossed and initiate widespread tree deaths on average across climate model projections in the 2050s.

Scientists have developed and used Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the global climate and make projections of future AT and other climatic variables under different carbon emission scenarios in the 21st century.

«The strong message here is that as we refine our estimates of carbon emissions we get closer to an accurate picture of what is going on and we can improve our climate projections and better inform policy on climate change.»

Since 1880, 531 gigatons have been emitted and emissions should not exceed 800 gigatons of C for a better than 50 - 50 chance at keeping global temperature rise below 2 degree C.) «We can not emit more than 1000 billion tons of carbon,» Stocker says, noting that the IPCC numbers on which such regional and global climate projections are made will be available to anyone.

Air pollutant emission inventories are essential in measuring the impact of pollution on air quality and the climate, as they are fed into atmospheric and climate models to make projections for the future.

Projections indicate the temperatures could rise as much as 11 °F by century's end if greenhouse gas emissions aren't slowed and that the rate of warming could reach levels unseen in 1,000 years by 2030s.

Decisions made today are made in the context of confident projections of future warming with continued emissions, but clearly there is more to do to better characterize the human and economic consequences of delaying action on climate change and how to frame these issues in the context of other concerns.

Recent projections show that for even the lowest emissions scenarios, thermal expansion of ocean waters21 and the melting of small mountain glaciers22 will result in 11 inches of sea level rise by 2100, even without any contribution from the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

Projections of Future Changes in Climate «For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 °C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.

The projection for 2015 reveals a second year of slow growth or even a small decrease in global emissions of 0.6 %.

IIASA researchers have been involved in greenhouse gas emission projections since the beginning of climate change research in the 1970s, including research on both historical emissions as well as projections for future emissions based on multiple scenarios of economic and population growth and technological change.

«Many of California's water managers are now working with projections of a one foot rise by mid-century and a three to four foot rise by 2100, slightly above the levels projected in the higher emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)...»

The IPCC instead proffers «what if» projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios,» Trenberth wrote in journal Nature's blog on June 4, 2007.

To derive the climate projections for this assessment, we employed 20 general circulation models to consider two scenarios of global carbon emissions: one where atmospheric greenhouse gases are stabilized by the end of the century and the other where it grows on its current path (the stabilization [RCP4.5] and business - as - usual [RCP8.5] emission scenarios, respectively).

Future emissions estimated based on OECD projections for economic growth and steady progress towards the upper (65 %) or lower (60 %) end of China's carbon intensity target for 2030.

In end - of - century projections, summers have the largest increases in average temperature: 6.5 °F (3.6 °C) for the stabilization emission scenario, 11.8 °F (6.6 °C) for the business - as - usual emission scenario.

Average daily minimum and maximum temperatures increase in the mid-century and end - of - century projections for both stabilization and business - as - usual emission scenarios (Figure 2 - 10 shows output for annual average daily maximum temperature).

Differences exist in projections for the stabilization and business - as - usual emission scenarios, with the former consistently showing lower magnitudes of change than the latter.

Climate change scenarios are based on projections of future greenhouse gas (particularly carbon dioxide) emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations given various plausible but imagined combinations of how governments, societies, economies, and technologies will change in the future.

And bringing net greenhouse gas emissions to zero in the second half of the century, as envisioned in the Paris Agreement, yields a likely rise of about 0.4 to 0.8 meters (1.2 to 2.6 feet) under the new projections, little changed from the IPCC - consistent projections.

Projections based on 29 climate models suggest that the number of high wildfire potential days each year could increase by nearly 50 percent by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.

Nonetheless, our sea - level rise projections for the first half of this century are not strongly affected by the way Antarctica is modeled, nor are they strongly tied to global greenhouse gas emissions trends.

As we discussed recently in connection with climate «forecasting `, the kinds of simulations used in AR4 are all «projections» i.e. runs that attempt to estimate the forced response of the climate to emission changes, but that don't attempt to estimate the trajectory of the unforced «weather».

Known as a «co-benefit,» using state of the art models for human and natural systems, along with climate projections from the international community, the team was able for the first time to put a value on the global air pollution benefits of cutting greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century.

Since climate scientists certainly don't have a crystal ball, we generally take a range of scenarios or projections of future emissions of CO2 and other important forcings such as methane and aerosols.

Still, our understanding has a wide range of projections, particularly for high emissions scenarios as Jevrejeva et al. (2014) illustrates.

Climate change projections were based on an ensemble of four General Circulation Models (UKMO HadCM3, MPIM ECHAM5, CSIRO MK3.5 and GFDL CM2.1), downscaled to 10 minutes [32], considering three emissions scenarios (B2, A1B and A2) for 1975 (mean 1961 — 1990), 2050 (mean 2041 — 2060) and 2090 (mean 2081 — 2100).

The Copenhagen Diagnosis authors used IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections as well as post-AR4 analysis to estimate that emissions reductions of around 40 % from industrial nations are needed to make it likely to keep global warming below 2 °C.

Differences in projections of warming by the end of the century appear to be related to assumptions made on emission trajectories and the ambitiousness of climate policies beyond 2030 rather than differences in methodology or climate modeling.

Crowther 2016 showed that the midpoint projections of warming soils CO2 emissions under a 2C warmer world are close to 300 GtC within 50 years with considerable more afterwards.

The Climate Impact Lab's sea - level rise projections use a framework that ties together multiple threads of information to assess the probability of local sea - level changes around the world, under different future emissions scenarios.

This isn't news to top climate scientists around the world (see Hadley Center: «Catastrophic» 5 — 7 °C warming by 2100 on current emissions path) or even to top climate scientists in this country (see US Geological Survey stunner: Sea - level rise in 2100 will likely «substantially exceed» IPCC projections, SW faces «permanent drying») and certainly not to people who follow the scientific literature, like Climate Progress readers (see Study: Water - vapor feedback is «strong and positive,» so we face «warming of several degrees Celsius»).

This paper provides an overview of recent trends in light - duty vehicle fuel economy around the world, new projections, and a discussion of fuel economy technology opportunities and costs over the next 30 - 50 years - all in the context of recent IEA projections of global energy use (especially oil use) and CO2 emissions.

CAP AND TRADE: Proceeds from the cap - and - trade system — which is designed to reduce Ontario's greenhouse gas emissions — are projected to be $ 1.9 billion in 2017 — up from last year's projection of $ 1.3 billion — and will be used to invest in green projects and climate change initiatives.

I think «the IPCC projections are not conditioned upon assumptions about policies being implemented related to emissions» is wrong, since there are a variety of projections, which are conditioned explicitly on the emission scenarios.

Still, our understanding has a wide range of projections, particularly for high emissions scenarios as Jevrejeva et al. (2014) illustrates.

Chris Field, the director of the department of global ecology for the Carnegie Institution, was widely cited for warning last month that emissions of greenhouse gases were already exceeding recent projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of which he was a member.