Each RCP contains the same categories of data, but the values vary a great deal, reflecting different
emission trajectories over time as determined by the underlying socio - economic assumptions (which are unique to each RCP).
Not exact matches
This compares with a business - as - usual
trajectory of a 35 percent increase in
emissions over the next four years.
China's greenhouse gas
emissions are on a downward
trajectory, but its
emissions may not have fallen quite as much
over the past two years as the Chinese government and the International Energy Agency have suggested.
Over the years, IPCC has issued numerous scenarios describing the
trajectory of civilization and what they may mean for CO2
emissions and the like.
We take the concept of remaining committed
emissions developed in Steve's 2010 paper with Caldeira and Matthews and work out the
trajectory of that value for the global power sector each year
over the past 60 years (the earlier paper reported the value for only a single recent year).
Over lunch in an empty Chinese restaurant, she explained to me (using chopsticks as props to make a graph of the global
emission trajectory) that she saw climate change both as a terrible threat to her people — but also an opportunity.
The
trajectory of future
emissions thus has the potential to greatly influence air quality
over most of the world's highly populated areas.
This puts
emissions on a long - term
trajectory consistent with stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at around 650 parts per million CO2 equivalent, suggesting a long - term temperature rise of
over 3.5 [degrees Celsius].»
Indeed, we estimate that the extra tightening of the EU - ETS cap required to align with a Paris - compliant EU - wide
trajectory for 2030 and beyond would require incremental
emissions reductions of 1.6 Gt
over 2021 - 30 versus our base - case scenario under the current cap.
He parameterizes peak global CO2
emissions date, and, assuming a ceiling temperature of 2 C
over pre-industrial, identifies different CO2
emissions trajectories required to keep temperature at / below the 2 C ceiling.
If
emissions of heat - trapping gases continue along the recent
trajectory, 21st century mean annual global warming could exceed 3.6 °F (2 °C)
over most terrestrial regions during 2046 to 2065 and 7.2 °F (4 °C) during 2081 - 2100.
Given the current
emissions trajectory, eliminating
emissions over 50 years would require 19 wedges: 9 to stabilize
emissions and an additional 10 to completely phase - out
emissions.
We conclude that greenhouse gas
emission trajectories on the low end of the current forecast range are the most likely to be observed
over the next 50 years.»