However, this does not mean that half the human
emission accumulates in the atmosphere, as is often stated.
Not exact matches
CO2
emissions either
accumulate in the
atmosphere, or are absorbed by the oceans or land vegetation.
Faster sea floor spreading, presumably associated with more volcanic activity at subduction zones, and / or other increases
in volcanic activity or geologic outgassing, or faster oxidation of exposed fossil organic C (as
in shales)-- greater geologic CO2
emissions (I think another way of looking at the inorganic part is that any given region of sea floor has less time to
accumulate carbonate minerals from chemical weathering, so that C reservoir could shrink while others, including the
atmosphere, can grow).
The manmade
emissions fueling global warming are
accumulating so quickly
in the
atmosphere that climate change could spiral out of control before humanity can take measures drastic enough to cool the earth's fever, many climate scientists say.
This is
in contrast to CO2, which
accumulates in the
atmosphere / ocean system, meaning that steady (non-rising)
emissions still lead to a rising atmospheric concentration.
Thus, at that point
in the future, a lessor volume of
accumulated GHGs
in the
atmosphere would mean a global climate that is not as warm as the global climate would have been had we not emitted fewer GHG
emissions now.
I once pointed out to an academic from a developed nation that the
emissions resulting from their country's two - car households had been
accumulating in the
atmosphere for decades.
The problem is that the rate of
emissions has no direct effect on temperature; it is the
accumulated level
in the
atmosphere that creates a radiative imbalance that causes temperature to rise.
Ideas that we should increase aerosol
emissions to counteract global warming have been described as a «Faustian bargain» because that would imply an ever increasing amount of
emissions in order to match the
accumulated GHG
in the
atmosphere, with ever increasing monetary and health costs.
Although
emissions from developing countries now dominate, the industrial countries set the world on its global warming path with over a century's worth of CO2
emissions that have
accumulated in the
atmosphere.
I prefer the trend of the
accumulated emissions, which is a near perfect fit for the observed accumulation
in the
atmosphere, above the temperature trend which is not so perfect... See and compare: with:
On the other hand, the correlation between
accumulated emissions and accumulation of CO2
in the
atmosphere is much better: it is a near fit over the last 100 + years (60 years of ice core data, near 50 years of MLO data).
That may seem a long time away, but because carbon dioxide piles up
in the
atmosphere over time, as water blasting from a faucet
accumulates in a sink, avoiding the two - degrees tipping point would require slashing
emissions starting now, the IPCC said.
And according to
emissions specialists like the Tyndall Centre's Kevin Anderson (as well as others), so much carbon has been allowed to
accumulate in the
atmosphere over the past two decades that now our only hope of keeping warming below the internationally agreed - upon target of 2 degrees Celsius is for wealthy countries to cut their
emissions by somewhere
in the neighborhood of 8 — 10 percent a year.27 The «free» market simply can not accomplish this task.
Second, cumulative
emissions are particularly important, because it is the
accumulated stock of GHGs
in the
atmosphere that cause climate change.
Storms and extreme rainfall events have always happened, but with the added heat
in the
atmosphere and oceans due to greenhouse gas
emissions, storms now occur with increasing
accumulated energy and higher moisture loading.
A few other problems: - While there is an extremely good correlation between
accumulated emissions and accumulation
in the
atmosphere, the correlation is less when one looks at the year by year increase, simply because temperature changes have a short term influence (about 4 ppmv/degr.C) on the increase rate, not on the trend!
Alas, I believe the preponderance of evidence strongly supports the claim that anthropogenic
emissions are having an effect on the global climate, and that effect will increase as greenhouse gases
accumulate in the
atmosphere.
Spring (ice melt) and fall (destratification) turnover events can result
in pulse
emissions wherein gasses that have
accumulated under the ice or thermocline are suddenly mixed upward and vented to the
atmosphere as a lake circulates.
IPCC scientists assume that human CO2
emissions will continue to
accumulate in the
atmosphere, remaining anywhere from hundreds to thousands of years.
Up until now, 29 per cent of human
emissions of carbon dioxide has been taken up by the oceans, 28 per cent has been absorbed by plant growth on land, and the remaining 43 per cent has
accumulated in the
atmosphere.
While the world gathers for yet another climate conference,
emissions continue to
accumulate in the
atmosphere.
IPCC writes page 10 § B. 5 of the Summary for Policy Makers: «From those cumulative anthropic
emissions 240 [230 à 250] Gt - C have
accumulated in the
atmosphere»
With the greenhouse gases already
accumulated in the
atmosphere, it would take less than 30 years for it to be inevitable that temperature would
in time reach 2 °C above the pre-industrial level if the global greenhouse - gas
emissions stayed at their current rate.
A central hurdle is that carbon dioxide
accumulates in the
atmosphere like unpaid credit card debt as long as
emissions exceed the rate at which the gas is naturally removed from the
atmosphere by the oceans and plants.
So there is another reason to believe that while humans certainly ARE adding CO2 to the
atmosphere, it isn't the primary component (we already know it isn't the primary component because the
atmosphere is
accumulating CO2 at a much faster rate than humans add each year) because while human
emissions have been rising nearly exponentially, atmospheric CO2 has been rising linearly and that rate of rise did not change when global human CO2
emissions fell
in absolute terms (tons of CO2 emitted to
atmosphere fell
in 2009, rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 unchanged).
Because carbon dioxide
accumulates in the
atmosphere and some part of it stays there essentially forever, historic
emissions matter more than current
emission rates.
The linked post is discusses the fact that reducing the rate of CO2
emission is insufficient, that it's the actual amount of CO2
accumulated in the
atmosphere by ANY positive net rate (
emission - absorption).
Don't worry yet mate because: «Land and ocean CO2 sinks respectively removed 30 % and 25 % of all anthropogenic CO2
emissions over the period 2000 — 2008, leaving about 45 % to
accumulate in the
atmosphere.»
He said simply reducing
emissions would not be enough to lower the economic costs because carbon dioxide
accumulates in the
atmosphere.
Nothing changes the fact that carbon dioxide is
accumulating in the
atmosphere thanks to human
emissions from burning carbon - based fuels such as coal and oil.
That means that about 184 GtC from the 300 + GtC
emissions of the past 150 + years has
accumulated as mass
in the
atmosphere.
That means that about 80 % of the
emissions accumulate in %
in the
atmosphere, the first year of the
emissions.
The
emissions, if these would
accumulate in total
in the
atmosphere should give an increase of 2.93 ppmv / yr (1990 - 2002) and 3.51 ppmv / yr (2003 - 2005).
In all cases, the natural cycles accumulate in mass -0.5 units and the emissions still are accumulating 1 unit in mass... The net result in all cases is +0.5 unit accumulating in mass in the atmospher
In all cases, the natural cycles
accumulate in mass -0.5 units and the emissions still are accumulating 1 unit in mass... The net result in all cases is +0.5 unit accumulating in mass in the atmospher
in mass -0.5 units and the
emissions still are
accumulating 1 unit
in mass... The net result in all cases is +0.5 unit accumulating in mass in the atmospher
in mass... The net result
in all cases is +0.5 unit accumulating in mass in the atmospher
in all cases is +0.5 unit
accumulating in mass in the atmospher
in mass
in the atmospher
in the
atmosphere.
How much of the original
emissions in %
accumulate in the
atmosphere is of a different order.
Trouble is, if we went whole - hog on SAI without reducing carbon
emissions, greenhouse gases would continue to
accumulate in our
atmosphere, meaning we'd need to keep pumping particles skyward forever to keep global warming at bay.